PraDa Just my thoughts :
I had checked Nifty 60M charts after your call. They were in a strong uptrend and shorting seemed a bit risky. A drop/retracement was brought into. So did not short against the short term uptrend.
Your long-term positional call may well be right, but short entry is better taken once the market confirms the same. In my view it is better not to look for the top to short but to enter at capitulation. This way, even if we can capture 70-80% of the move, that is good enough, rather than see the market go 40-50% against our position and then eventually go down as expected.
The market has a tendency to surprise everybody, and they may as well open gap down on Monday, as everybody and their neighbor is long only. Let's see how it works out.
My 2C. i.e 1.31 Rupee at current exchange rate. Value may vary greatly depending upon Monday's USDINR open.
P.S : Look forward to your post as usual. Thanks for the thread and update.
Cheers and have a great weekend.
Nifty update: I expected Nifty to find decent support at 5147 and rebound from there. Although, the magnitude of bounce back has surprised me, I still maintain my view and target for Nifty. Nothing has changed both technically and fundamentally. We are very close to testing the falling trendline from 6093 high. This is a rally from oversold levels and it should fizzle out in a few days. I maintain my view that subsequent reversal will be quite sharp and personally I hold huge short positions(from higher levels) in Nifty. Its a pity that retailers are the ones to always get trapped in these false rallies. My sole intention of starting this thread initially was to create awareness among the retail crowd so that they are alert at all times. Indian market along with its currency has become a CASINO for the smart money to say the least....
All the best to your trading.
PraDa