Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[sudoku1]

yes it needs to fly more. the higher u r the greater u fall

by d word U...r u referring d mkt or sm person ?

 

[essem]

yes it needs to fly more. the higher u r the greater u fall

Sure market will fall but the big question is when? till then i have to go long.

 

[prada]

Hi, Elliott waves is just one of the tools that I use for my analysis. No single theory is full proof in nature and hence a combination of various tools need to be used. One's life time is not enough to master the market. Its an ever evolving process. I do not trust the intelligence of software/system , since it gives you outputs based on preset inputs. Analysis is much more than just coming to conclusions based on well defined inputs. We must respect the fact that market is dynamic in nature and no fixed rules can be applied to it.

PraDa

hi Prada, if you use elliot wave theory in your predictions then can you pls tell if you use software for wave-counting or you do it manually?

 

[prada]

With all the festive and jubilant mood, I strongly advise caution. Market looks quite stretched in the short term and a meaningful correction is warranted. I've exited all my longs and have started taking short positions. Upside looks quite limited from here. Happy Diwali to all the forum members in advance!

PraDa

 

[DSM]

Thanks PraDa,

What are your targets and what level is SL?

With all the festive and jubilant mood, I strongly advise caution. Market looks quite stretched in the short term and a meaningful correction is warranted. I've exited all my longs and have started taking short positions. Upside looks quite limited from here. Happy Diwali to all the forum members in advance!

PraDa

 

[prada]

DSM, once this rally fizzles out, which will happen in the next few sessions, my initial target will be 6100. I will look at the nature of correction to fix further targets. I expect nifty to stall for a few sessions before it enters correction phase. Stoploss as of now is not fixed. But a notional one would be 6400.

Thanks PraDa,

What are your targets and what level is SL?

 

[stock72]

well said bro... exactly on the point...

Hi, Elliott waves is just one of the tools that I use for my analysis. No single theory is fool proof in nature and hence a combination of various tools need to be used. One's life time is not enough to master the market. Its an ever evolving process. I do not trust the intelligence of software/system , since it gives you outputs based on preset inputs. Analysis is much more than just coming to conclusions based on well defined inputs. We must respect the fact that market is dynamic in nature and no fixed rules can be applied to it.

PraDa

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: Capturing the counter trend rally/correction is the most herculean task in analysis. But if one gets it right, then good money can be made, since the move in the opposite direction is always quick. From the high of 6342, we have corrected almost 150 points in 2 sessions. The only index which was lagging behind was the midcap index which has now clearly formed a top yesterday and will now play catch up on the way down. Although intermittent bounce backs are possible, this is now a 'sell on rise' market in the short term, since the market needs to cool off considerably. 6100 is on...
Supports- (6200-6190)-6160-6130-6100. Resistances- 6240-6269-6300. Levels mentioned are spot levels.
All the best to your trading!

PraDa

Nifty Update: Nifty will make an attempt to test 6300 from current levels. However, I would maintain a cautious stance from here on and I've started to book profits on my long positions. I expect volatility to kick in next week which could last until the end of November. USD/INR movement( strong bounce back expected) too does not give me the comfort feeling. In any case, gear up for a meaningful correction moving into the month of November.

PraDa

 

[bugsnj]

Hi Prada,

As we are neaing 6100 range, is there an opportunity to go long again, or hold on till it settles down at 6100 range and makes an up movement again?

Thanks.

 

[sridhar]

US jobs data has surprised on the upside. SO a possibility of start of taper is now back on the table. Will be an interesting week.

On Nifty F1 charts I am getting following resistance & supports levels that are based on VAP chart. ( have found this to be very effective!):-

Medium supports: 6175,6150,6086,6000,
Strong supports: 5910
Medium resistances: 6247, 6291 & 6370.

Based on the move from 28/8 to 1/10 the 23.6% & 38.2% Fibbonachi Retracements come in at 6082 & 5896.05.

So 6080-6090 and around 5910-5890 levels are very important levels.