Weekly update-
Another week went by in a a very narrow range. We have a very interesting truncated expiry week ahead of us. Market looks extremely weak with a potential of breaking down. Negation to this view would be a close above 5750 which can then give an impetus to test recent highs and extend a little further. However, at this moment , the probability of this remains quite low. Decisive breach below 5630 should confirm the break down with a possibility of extending all the way down to 5450-5500. Looking at the global scene wherein Europe along with some Asian markets like Hangseng looks overheated and a breakdown(highly possible) there could intensify the weakness in our markets which looks exhausted after an extended run.
USD/INR- As I am typing, is at a kissing distance from my target of 54. This could extend upto 54.35 before a shallow correction sets in.
Have a fantastic weekend and a safe trading week ahead!
P.S: I am again travelling from tomorrow for 10 days and would not be in a position to post next week's update.
Another week went by in a a very narrow range. We have a very interesting truncated expiry week ahead of us. Market looks extremely weak with a potential of breaking down. Negation to this view would be a close above 5750 which can then give an impetus to test recent highs and extend a little further. However, at this moment , the probability of this remains quite low. Decisive breach below 5630 should confirm the break down with a possibility of extending all the way down to 5450-5500. Looking at the global scene wherein Europe along with some Asian markets like Hangseng looks overheated and a breakdown(highly possible) there could intensify the weakness in our markets which looks exhausted after an extended run.
USD/INR- As I am typing, is at a kissing distance from my target of 54. This could extend upto 54.35 before a shallow correction sets in.
Have a fantastic weekend and a safe trading week ahead!
P.S: I am again travelling from tomorrow for 10 days and would not be in a position to post next week's update.
Hi T4P
Thanks for your post on Ichimoku.
Pleased to know about your interest in Ichimoku.
If you are interested in posting on Ichimoku, then you have all the 3 options.
1. Post here, if you want to post once in a while.
2. Post on T4J thread as suggested by TP bro. Though that thread itself is not regular, only 5 posts since 28.7.12.
3. Start a new thread if you wish to post on a regular basis, even weekly, if not on a daily basis
The choice is yours!!!
Regards
Thanks for your post on Ichimoku.
Pleased to know about your interest in Ichimoku.
If you are interested in posting on Ichimoku, then you have all the 3 options.
1. Post here, if you want to post once in a while.
2. Post on T4J thread as suggested by TP bro. Though that thread itself is not regular, only 5 posts since 28.7.12.
3. Start a new thread if you wish to post on a regular basis, even weekly, if not on a daily basis
The choice is yours!!!
Regards
Last week I said...
Bulls indeed made one more attempt on Thursday to take out 5720 but could not. A rising wedge was formed on Thursday and as suspected, it came down on Friday but took support at 5665 and went up.
The Sucker is now sitting in the middle of the range 5630-5730 eating option premium on both sides, giving no clue of what it is gonna do. So we have to look for other clues.
MACD has given sell signal.
Here is a 15 min chart.
The downward falling expanding channel is suggesting that it is going to fall on Monday. I am not sure. Perhaps Prada may help here.
Dow fell 1.5% or 200 points on Friday. Here is a weekly chart of Dow.
Dow has turned down from upper TL and showing weakness. If it goes below 13000 next week, it is going to take all other markets with it. I therefore feel that Nifty is going to break below 5638.
Nifty broke the support of 5720 and came down. 5720 has become resistance now. Downward move was first supported by 15 Days average and later at 5638 and it bounced from there. However, it was resisted at 5720 and it came down again.
However, Nifty made a falling wedge while coming down as seen in 15 Min chart above. I feel that it will be broken on upper side and there will be another attempt to take out 5720. This time, it will be resisted by 15 days average and the downward sloping line 5 also. Chances of taking out 5720 are less.
Moreover, Nifty may be forming a small Head and shoulder here. It will be confirmed only if it breaks down below 5638. If confirmed, height of head is 177 points (5825 - 5638), so we will have 5461 (5638 minus 177) as minimum down side.. Volumes are also falling from left shoulder, a characteristic of H&S formation. Of course, there will be support at 5526-5534.
If it takes out 5720, it is likely to head for 5880 on upper TL.
However, Nifty made a falling wedge while coming down as seen in 15 Min chart above. I feel that it will be broken on upper side and there will be another attempt to take out 5720. This time, it will be resisted by 15 days average and the downward sloping line 5 also. Chances of taking out 5720 are less.
Moreover, Nifty may be forming a small Head and shoulder here. It will be confirmed only if it breaks down below 5638. If confirmed, height of head is 177 points (5825 - 5638), so we will have 5461 (5638 minus 177) as minimum down side.. Volumes are also falling from left shoulder, a characteristic of H&S formation. Of course, there will be support at 5526-5534.
If it takes out 5720, it is likely to head for 5880 on upper TL.
On Thursday
Another rising wedge on 15min chart. Theoretically, it should break down tomorrow. If market opens above it, it will act as support.
I use 5,15,60 min charts. The wedge is showing in 5 and 15. You are right, 60 min shows a different story. However, Rising Wedge does not mean all the way down to 5630. Rising wedge broken downside implies a fall up to the start of wedge. In this case it is 5689. There is also a support at 5670 so we will have to wait and watch in that area.
If Nifty goes above the wedge, then I misinterpreted a flag for wedge. Flag flies half mast. That means we will have a sharp rally equal to the mast i.e approx. 50 points from whatever point it breaks upside.
Another rising wedge on 15min chart. Theoretically, it should break down tomorrow. If market opens above it, it will act as support.
I use 5,15,60 min charts. The wedge is showing in 5 and 15. You are right, 60 min shows a different story. However, Rising Wedge does not mean all the way down to 5630. Rising wedge broken downside implies a fall up to the start of wedge. In this case it is 5689. There is also a support at 5670 so we will have to wait and watch in that area.
If Nifty goes above the wedge, then I misinterpreted a flag for wedge. Flag flies half mast. That means we will have a sharp rally equal to the mast i.e approx. 50 points from whatever point it breaks upside.
The Sucker is now sitting in the middle of the range 5630-5730 eating option premium on both sides, giving no clue of what it is gonna do. So we have to look for other clues.
MACD has given sell signal.
Here is a 15 min chart.
The downward falling expanding channel is suggesting that it is going to fall on Monday. I am not sure. Perhaps Prada may help here.
Dow fell 1.5% or 200 points on Friday. Here is a weekly chart of Dow.
Dow has turned down from upper TL and showing weakness. If it goes below 13000 next week, it is going to take all other markets with it. I therefore feel that Nifty is going to break below 5638.
Last edited:
Thank you Josh, your analysis is quite detailed and compelling. Appreciate your efforts.
Last week I said...
Bulls indeed made one more attempt on Thursday to take out 5720 but could not. A rising wedge was formed on Thursday and as suspected, it came down on Friday but took support at 5665 and went up.
The Sucker is now sitting in the middle of the range 5630-5730 eating option premium on both sides, giving no clue of what it is gonna do. So we have to look for other clues.
MACD has given sell signal.
Here is a 15 min chart.
The downward falling expanding channel is suggesting that it is going to fall on Monday. I am not sure. Perhaps Prada may help here.
Dow fell 1.5% or 200 points on Friday. Here is a weekly chart of Dow.
Dow has turned down from upper TL and showing weakness. If it goes below 13000 next week, it is going to take all other markets with it. I therefore feel that Nifty is going to break below 5638.
Bulls indeed made one more attempt on Thursday to take out 5720 but could not. A rising wedge was formed on Thursday and as suspected, it came down on Friday but took support at 5665 and went up.
The Sucker is now sitting in the middle of the range 5630-5730 eating option premium on both sides, giving no clue of what it is gonna do. So we have to look for other clues.
MACD has given sell signal.
Here is a 15 min chart.
The downward falling expanding channel is suggesting that it is going to fall on Monday. I am not sure. Perhaps Prada may help here.
Dow fell 1.5% or 200 points on Friday. Here is a weekly chart of Dow.
Dow has turned down from upper TL and showing weakness. If it goes below 13000 next week, it is going to take all other markets with it. I therefore feel that Nifty is going to break below 5638.
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