Indian Stock Market Headed For A Crash!!

[AncientLion]

whichever tide the market goes our job is to make money

 

[AncientLion]

I want career in stock Market but I am no known How to start First Step? Any one Guide me?

research each company you wish to trade thoroughly fist, know what it does and what it can do, after all you are buying a share in that company, first find out reason why you should buy it, and find the reason yourself not from others

 

[tradejee]

I agree with your need for numbers.

I project BSE < 10,000 by end of 2008. However, it is really difficult to measure in nominal term, because it stock market projection depends on INR/USD parity, inflation rate (meaning RBI M3 money supply), and other factors.

Measured in USD terms (or better yet, when measured in 10 grams of gold), BSE will crash by atleast 30%.

Why do I say - when measured in gold? Because GOLD IS REAL MONEY.

Historically, 1 BSE was always 5-10% below the price of 10 grams of Gold. Although nominally, BSE seems to have had 'magnificent growth', when measured in GOLD terms, 1 BSE still trades around 10 grams of Gold.

Given our current economic conditions, poor fiscal and monetary policies, and complete cluelessness of the retail investor, I think a 30% drop in stock prices would be an optimistic estimate.
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We can correlate what happened in 2008 with the situation in 2018.

Usually with heavy fall of Sensex there is corresponding increase in the Gold price.

From last week August 2018 there is almost 12% fall in Index (39k to 34k) and more than 8 % increase in gold price (29k to 32k).

If in future, sensex further falls and similar relationships with Gold continues then both Gold and Sensex will be equal at approx 33k.

Gold price supply is very limited, thus due to increasing demand it's price will increase more rapidly than the corresponding fall in the sensex.

It may happen that for further 500 point decrease in Sensex may correspond with 1000 point increase in the Gold price.

As per assumption Sensex should go down to 5% lower than the Gold price. This may happen at Sensex 32500 and Gold price 34000.