Indian Stock Market Headed For A Crash!!

[biyasc]

I agree - sometimes it is good to have a bit of luck as well.

luck in trading! well said.

 

[sudoku1]

luck in trading! well said.

Die whn i may,i want it said by those who knew me best that i always plucked a thistle n planted a flower where i thought a flower would grow & tried MY LUCK......

 

[biyasc]

Die whn i may,i want it said by those who knew me best that i always plucked a thistle n planted a flower where i thought a flower would grow & tried MY LUCK......

u such a superb man.

 

[sudoku1]

u such a superb man.

thanks for the compliments.
.....

 

[CreditViolet]

thanks for the compliments.
.....

Didn't Abraham Lincoln say that?

http://www.positivityblog.com/index...op-10-fundamentals-for-creating-a-great-life/

 

[harharmahadev]

John Paulson made 4 billion from his prediction, how much did you make?
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120036645057290423.html

.

4 billion...

 

[kkseal]

Didn't Abraham Lincoln say that?

http://www.positivityblog.com/index...op-10-fundamentals-for-creating-a-great-life/

That's a wonderful blog.

 

[harharmahadev]

*cough* *cough*

 

[harharmahadev]

I agree with your need for numbers.

I project BSE < 10,000 by end of 2008. However, it is really difficult to measure in nominal term, because it stock market projection depends on INR/USD parity, inflation rate (meaning RBI M3 money supply), and other factors.

Measured in USD terms (or better yet, when measured in 10 grams of gold), BSE will crash by atleast 30%.

Why do I say - when measured in gold? Because GOLD IS REAL MONEY...probably our ancestors were better aware of that fact than us.

Historically, 1 BSE was always 5-10% below the price of 10 grams of Gold. Although nominally, BSE seems to have had 'magnificent growth', when measured in GOLD terms, 1 BSE still trades around 10 grams of Gold.

Given our current economic conditions, poor fiscal and monetary policies, and complete cluelessness of the retail investor, I think a 30% drop in stock prices would be an optimistic estimate.

If US plunges into a deep recession (which it will) and commodity prices continue to skyrocket (which they will), India will sink into a chaos. At any rate, it is too late in the game...any 'fix' would be akin to putting band-aid on a bullet wound.

A realistic estimate would be 1 BSE trading at 0.5 times 10 grams of Gold....which means either Gold prices shoot up or BSE falls dramatically. Thats the trade I will bet on.

Hello everyone....has the bear ripped out your shirts and blouses yet??

 

[deepsa52]

I project BSE < 10,000 by end of 2008. However, it is really difficult to measure in nominal term, because it stock market projection depends on INR/USD parity, inflation rate (meaning RBI M3 money supply), and other factors.

_
Biggest factor of all that throws any kind of predictions out of the window - govt intervention, otherwise, it could be a zero less or closed exchanges. No exaggarations.