Indian Stock Market Headed For A Crash!!

[harharmahadev]

hi mr. dhakkan..may i too first clarify that i dont want to prove myself tobe an expert as you said..but i am a technical consultant and i have been giving technical calls since 4-5 years now..as you know the base of ta is human psychology..and i did observe during october-january that many of even my clients when trapped in buying some future..they carried their position upto 10-15 % loss..and within a period they were coming back to profit...so slowly people started to believe that they will never loose money IF IN BUYING POSITION.....this was greed at its extreme....i think the reverse is happening now...if i give a call to sell unitech at 180 just looking at some weakness in 15 min charts they will happily short it..even at this low price if it goes up by 10 rs they will not cover short..coz. THEY KNOW IT WILL TANK...SO i wrote on jan 12 ..WE ARE VERY MUCH NEAR A TOP..........AND now i am writing now with equal confidence..a bottom is very mush near by....lot of us will feel in medium term future that..oh my god !!!! this stock was available at a dirt cheap price just a few months back....

This is what I call unalloyed speculation. In the past 4-5 years, anybody with a dartboard became a 'investor'. Well...those merry days are over. A true technical trader would have seen a true technical breakdown in real estate stocks abd the start of a longterm bear trend.

 

[harharmahadev]

These are general manifestations of an Excess/Irrational phase of a Strong Trend which has entered it's culmination phase.

Unfortunately in this phase Retailers Like me are always distracted & fooled,Smart Money silently starts Accumilation / Distribution.

I disagree....I think smart money was unloading while the retail investor was accumulating thinking about "buying on dips".

Most retail investors in India have been in the market for 4-5 years when this strategy worked well. Well! This time things are truly different and the trend has changed irreversibly (atleast for the next few years). The retail investor has still to wake up to the quickly shifting ground realities. That's the reason for my bearish stance.

 

[kapital solutions]

If we look at the history of the rallies & crashes of the stock markets, we can do nothing but agree with the statement that Markets discount the future.

& Definitely the great Indian Growth Story cannot just get over in 6 bad months. there always are bound to be phases like the one we are currently witnessing, & it is in times like these that we are better of start building portfolio for Long term.

Qouting Warren Buffte "There are two sentiments working in the market- GREED & Fear, I Fear when everyone around me is Greedy, & I turn Greedy when everyone around me turns to Fear."

Words to be framed in GOLD.

 

[harharmahadev]

If we look at the history of the rallies & crashes of the stock markets, we can do nothing but agree with the statement that Markets discount the future.

& Definitely the great Indian Growth Story cannot just get over in 6 bad months. there always are bound to be phases like the one we are currently witnessing, & it is in times like these that we are better of start building portfolio for Long term.

Qouting Warren Buffte "There are two sentiments working in the market- GREED & Fear, I Fear when everyone around me is Greedy, & I turn Greedy when everyone around me turns to Fear."

Words to be framed in GOLD.

Please frame this phrase alongside - "Warren Buffet is the most misquoted person in the world."

Sentiment alone doesn't determine market direction. Sometimes, the majority is right. For e.g. - just because 99% of the doctors agree cholestrol causes heart diseases, don't mean that they are wrong.

If you had invested in Nasdaq futures anytime in 1999, you would still not have recouped your investment.

Let's take another example. In 1998, MSFT was the undisputed KING of technology. You wouldn't find a single analyst across the world who would make a single negative comment about MSFT (talking in hyperbole for added effect). It used to trade at $30 a share in 1998. Somebody (everybody) must have bought it as a 'long-term' investment. Today, after 10 years, the stock trades at $26 a share. It's not that Microsoft didn't grow. It did..it's just that stock prices have stagnated.

'Indian stock market' was the flavor of the day in 2007. Now, it's leaving a bad aftertaste and investors are fleeing. Once the bubble pops, money never comes back to the same asset class in such a short time-frame (unless you plan to hold BSE futures for 30+ years..only then you may break even on an inflation-adjusted basis.).

 

[deepsa52]

T
- US city, state and federal organizations are in dire straits. Do not overestimate their abilities in intervening and protecting the small retail investor.

No central bank has ever protected the retailer ; it is the same everywhere. Usually the left over bones are thrown to the retailer who think they are doing good ( never mind what the money buys inflation adjusted ) . Of course there are exceptions, the top 10-15% who stick through for years do really good.

 

[sudoku1]

Markets discount the future.

& Definitely the great Indian Growth Story cannot just get over in 6 bad months.

.

the great INDIA SHINING sory is OVER...
not bcause my charts r bearish.....but as mkts discount the future....it also lags in reflecting the rope tightning policy by the RBI...
the current situation by the RBI & high energy prices which r there since last 6 months will get reflected in the 2 qtrs including the result qtr...
have a glimpse on the first bunch of results so far & u will notice that slowly the derivatives losses & high input costs r making mattrs worse...
& FII'S have already DOWNGRADED a few sectrs....its just a matter of time before the whole mkt gets DERATED....

 

[deepsa52]

the great INDIA SHINING sory is OVER.

Strictly from a traders point of view, as long as the India Short story holds, things are good. .- but eventually markets get range bound for a while

 

[masterjee]

Strictly from a traders point of view, as long as the India Short story holds, things are good. .- but eventually markets get range bound for a while

Nothing gets over in the market - a sucker is born every minute (Barnum in another context).
m

 

[deb99891]

One well known brokerage house stated in jest, that they could tell which
way the stock market was going on any given day by the number of telephone calls they received.
just a copy paste

 

[sudoku1]

One well known brokerage house stated in jest, that they could tell which
way the stock market was going on any given day by the number of telephone calls they received.
just a copy paste

same as i recall a books , magazines & newspaper stall.....
they used 2 tell that sales r brisk (in dec 2007 )......& they asked me ' will it happen again like in KP scam ? (2001)