Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[kingpin]

I understand the eagerness that traders have to spot the trend early so they can capitalise on it. But these are the facts:

(1) on 03/05/10 Nifty closed at 5222.75 with a mild trend that could have made it bullish or bearish.
(2) on 04/05/10 Nifty closed at 5148.5 and the trend turned distinctly bearish.
(3) after 4th, (barring 10th, 12th and 13th) Nifty has not managed to close above this level (or even above 5200 for that matter).

So it is clear to me that for the trend to turn bullish, Nifty has to close above 5150 on EOD basis for me to even consider bullish calls. As of now, I will still look for shorting opportunities on every rise at appropriate level IMHO.

So I am talking to a bear. Hi, I am a bull..... let's meet tomorrow at 9 a.m and let's find out how many are on your side and how many are on mine.

 

[SwingKing]

Dear Users,

Please maintain the relevance of this thread. This is a thread which will be updated only on Nifty reversals or similar kind of posts. For other discussion please write in other suitable threads.

Please take this post in the right spirit.

Tc.

 

[enigmaticme]

Hello RaunakJi,

These days i'm going through ur various posts... i must say u were spot on jan & May correction.. I'm really impressed seeing ur wisdom n still how simple u make it for us.. Great job sir..

What's your view on this tremendous pullback.. do u see it jst as a result of short covering or as a reversal..
Few things i have observed, please guide me if i'm on right track...
> for nifty MACD, STC, RSI giving buy
> crossed above 200 MA, also trendline support
> volumes are good on up days barring last one..

i only trade in individual stocks but Nifty direction affects all, so please guide me if i can go long or should i wait for 5150 to be taken off.. but then 5200 would be huge resistance..

Thanks & Regards,
Enigmaticme

 

[enigmaticme]

One more thing.. u do post for NIFTY top reversals.. i mean when market i expected to fell but not wen it's expected to rise (showing strength)..

 

[SwingKing]

Hello RaunakJi,

These days i'm going through ur various posts... i must say u were spot on jan & May correction.. I'm really impressed seeing ur wisdom n still how simple u make it for us.. Great job sir..

What's your view on this tremendous pullback.. do u see it jst as a result of short covering or as a reversal..
Few things i have observed, please guide me if i'm on right track...
> for nifty MACD, STC, RSI giving buy
> crossed above 200 MA, also trendline support
> volumes are good on up days barring last one..

i only trade in individual stocks but Nifty direction affects all, so please guide me if i can go long or should i wait for 5150 to be taken off.. but then 5200 would be huge resistance..

Thanks & Regards,
Enigmaticme

Refer to this post.

http://www.traderji.com/equities/39957-nifty-daily-price-analysis-14.html#post438994

Hope this helps.

Tc

 

[SwingKing]

One more thing.. u do post for NIFTY top reversals.. i mean when market i expected to fell but not wen it's expected to rise (showing strength)..

Its not that Enigmaticme. These days markets are trading negative. Hence my views were biased towards it.

Tc

 

[pasha]

Almost 30 point discount in Nifty futures on Friday close
Don't know what the reason is, but theres going to be huge action on Monday.
Anyone know when there has been this size of discount previously?

 

[kingpin]

Dear Users,

Please maintain the relevance of this thread. This is a thread which will be updated only on Nifty reversals or similar kind of posts. For other discussion please write in other suitable threads.

Please take this post in the right spirit.

Tc.

Being responsible to maintain sanctity of the site is good but being overbearing is not.

If the above quote was in response to the three posts above it I should say they were hugely relevant to the discussion on reversals. Here are two individuals (kingpin and pkapadia) arguing whether a reversal has happened. One offered Technical explanations using NIFTY as well as Dow's movements while the other was sceptical about the argument and offered counterarguments. If this is not a 'relevant discussion' I wonder what really is one. Perhaps some other members eulogising a senior member is more relevant I guess.

The third comment about bulls and bears ( which I suspect prompted that censorship ) was just a reminder that clashes of diverging opinions is what makes a market tick and most importantly cause the reversals.

I would request the moderator(s) to take note of my comments.

 

[SwingKing]

Being responsible to maintain sanctity of the site is good but being overbearing is not.

If the above quote was in response to the three posts above it I should say they were hugely relevant to the discussion on reversals. Here are two individuals (kingpin and pkapadia) arguing whether a reversal has happened. One offered Technical explanations using NIFTY as well as Dow's movements while the other was sceptical about the argument and offered counterarguments. If this is not a 'relevant discussion' I wonder what really is one. Perhaps some other members eulogising a senior member is more relevant I guess.

The third comment about bulls and bears ( which I suspect prompted that censorship ) was just a reminder that clashes of diverging opinions is what makes a market tick and most importantly cause the reversals.

I would request the moderator(s) to take note of my comments.

Dear Kingpin,

It would have been good had you PM'd me first.

Just to clarify, the post was not 'pointed' towards you. But it was a collective statement for many posts (including mine).

Henceforth, going forward, if you wish to write such frivolous posts, kindly confirm with me first. Lets not take this forward.

P.S. - Senior members run this forum for everyone's benefit. They don't run a thread/forum to get appreciation/reward of any kind. Else, they would not be here.

Tc.

 

[pkapadia]

Hello guys,

While I think the discussion of where the Nifty is headed is the only relevant thing to this forum, the "let's see who's right" stand by Kingpin was assuredly frivolous. That said, I want to point out that on any given day, I am neither a bull or a bear but feel more like an ass in this volatile market.

All technical indications are now pointing to Nifty heading further down. Since I jumped into this discussion, Nifty has still not managed to cross 5150 although admittedly it came pretty close to it on 4th June when it closed at 5135. Today again will give us a shorting opportunity near 5050 (if & when it reaches there).

I like to read Phil Smith's notes at reuterstechnicals.com where he shows how Nifty could be forming another topping pattern from where it can slip down.

Have a great trading day!
Paresh