Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[trader.trends]

to all guys interested in this thread,
what do you make of todays market movement? good and sustainable? or speculative? should we now go all out than for shorts?
Is this movement definitive?

Don't fight the Central Banks/Govts. The market will go where they want it to go. It pays to be on the right side of the Bank/Govt's moves.

 

[SwingKing]

sir,
I am not a great believer of analysts or tech advisors.but we do have to agree their presence in media moves the market according to their whims & fancies...may be the are true that our markets are too overvalued and the subprime greek crises and the contagion..etc are escuses for corrections back to fair valuations...what do you think about that? And if so what do you think are the fair valuations of our markets now? Some say 10% lower some say 5% some give horrible amounts that everyone would run away with their money! The size of our gdp compared to the total market is much lower? Will this free falling stop when the fair valuations are reached? What do you think is the fair value for nifty and bse?

Pegasus, I understand your concern and I think you need to seek a solution for yourself. It is absolutely fine if you don't want to believe in any analyst or tech advisor. But at the end of the day whom will u rely on ? I appreciate your attitude towards analysts, but are you better than them in analyzing ? Or do you have the necessary tools and the education to outperform the market ? If you are then listen to your opinion. If you aren't then make efforts to reach that level. Ultimately you have to be at peace psychologically.

This is where I feel one's education and aptitude comes into the foray. I don't believe that CFA/CMT or any other analyst with good qualifications are worthless or are purely paid to speak what they intend to. There are always some bad apples in the bunch, but it does not make everyone fall in that genre. I belong to this category and I can tell you that education and qualification is one thing which will make you go a long way. Education basically helps you put in place certain puzzles which the market's constantly throw at you. Having this alone does not help, but it certainly put's one in another level. Either you can obtain this by reading or by practical experience. Anyhow this is always going to help.

Coming to your valuation concern now. I'd advise you to classify yourself as a trader / investor. If you are a trader, valuations should not be a concern. Just ride the trend till you see signs of reversals. If you are an investor then don't bother too much about short term corrections. Keep a long term view and I feel you'd be fine. Market participants need to identify their "Participatory Character". Else, making profit becomes difficult.

This thread is mainly for market turning points. It does not warrant any major correction. But it does alert one that market's need to breathe before it can move further. I feel a drop of 500 -1000 point on the Nifty is a good buying zone anytime (as far as the broader tone remains positive). This is something I constantly reiterate in my Nifty Daily analysis thread. For investors India is a 'Buy' story and hence anyone who share this view should have a long term horizon and should avoid the daily noise created in the markets.

 

[pegasus]

Pegasus, I understand your concern and I think you need to seek a solution for yourself. It is absolutely fine if you don't want to believe in any analyst or tech advisor. But at the end of the day whom will u rely on ? I appreciate your attitude towards analysts, but are you better than them in analyzing ? Or do you have the necessary tools and the education to outperform the market ? If you are then listen to your opinion. If you aren't then make efforts to reach that level. Ultimately you have to be at peace psychologically.

This is where I feel one's education and aptitude comes into the foray. I don't believe that CFA/CMT or any other analyst with good qualifications are worthless or are purely paid to speak what they intend to. There are always some bad apples in the bunch, but it does not make everyone fall in that genre. I belong to this category and I can tell you that education and qualification is one thing which will make you go a long way. Education basically helps you put in place certain puzzles which the market's constantly throw at you. Having this alone does not help, but it certainly put's one in another level. Either you can obtain this by reading or by practical experience. Anyhow this is always going to help.

Coming to your valuation concern now. I'd advise you to classify yourself as a trader / investor. If you are a trader, valuations should not be a concern. Just ride the trend till you see signs of reversals. If you are an investor then don't bother too much about short term corrections. Keep a long term view and I feel you'd be fine. Market participants need to identify their "Participatory Character". Else, making profit becomes difficult.

This thread is mainly for market turning points. It does not warrant any major correction. But it does alert one that market's need to breathe before it can move further. I feel a drop of 500 -1000 point on the Nifty is a good buying zone anytime (as far as the broader tone remains positive). This is something I constantly reiterate in my Nifty Daily analysis thread. For investors India is a 'Buy' story and hence anyone who share this view should have a long term horizon and should avoid the daily noise created in the markets.

Continued from last...
I had actually been surprised by todays gain.though i expected a positive ending 3% looks a massive gain either a correction can be expected tomoro.at least I expect it,and will trade accordingly. At the start of the bad mood i jumped off a bit and waiting for all the smoke to clear and lower fire to douse.what is your opinion and what do your technicals say-)?

 

[pegasus]

Pegasus, I understand your concern and I think you need to seek a solution for yourself. It is absolutely fine if you don't want to believe in any analyst or tech advisor. But at the end of the day whom will u rely on ? I appreciate your attitude towards analysts, but are you better than them in analyzing ? Or do you have the necessary tools and the education to outperform the market ? If you are then listen to your opinion. If you aren't then make efforts to reach that level. Ultimately you have to be at peace psychologically.

This is where I feel one's education and aptitude comes into the foray. I don't believe that CFA/CMT or any other analyst with good qualifications are worthless or are purely paid to speak what they intend to. There are always some bad apples in the bunch, but it does not make everyone fall in that genre. I belong to this category and I can tell you that education and qualification is one thing which will make you go a long way. Education basically helps you put in place certain puzzles which the market's constantly throw at you. Having this alone does not help, but it certainly put's one in another level. Either you can obtain this by reading or by practical experience. Anyhow this is always going to help.

Coming to your valuation concern now. I'd advise you to classify yourself as a trader / investor. If you are a trader, valuations should not be a concern. Just ride the trend till you see signs of reversals. If you are an investor then don't bother too much about short term corrections. Keep a long term view and I feel you'd be fine. Market participants need to identify their "Participatory Character". Else, making profit becomes difficult.

This thread is mainly for market turning points. It does not warrant any major correction. But it does alert one that market's need to breathe before it can move further. I feel a drop of 500 -1000 point on the Nifty is a good buying zone anytime (as far as the broader tone remains positive). This is something I constantly reiterate in my Nifty Daily analysis thread. For investors India is a 'Buy' story and hence anyone who share this view should have a long term horizon and should avoid the daily noise created in the markets.

Dear sir, I think you misunderstood me , i am not against analysts though i worded my comments as a general statement but i am against the genre of analysts who scam the people for their own gains to move the market according to their own tunes.I certainly understand the pains of using brains to map the market movements and do respect the people who do these analyses which seem mundane to people like me. Then speaking about myself i am a bit of both i invest a fraction of my corpus into what i myself consider as gems. And also trade, but do not ride the waves daily as my profession does not give me so much of free time. What I feel is that whenever i see markets consistently falling for 2 weeks I become an alarmist myself, I could draw a lot of parallels between the current world scenario and the one during the 2001-2002 fall. As you said a near 500 point fall is an oppurtunity, is it not wise to protect our investments from such a fall...

 

[SwingKing]

Continued from last...
I had actually been surprised by todays gain.though i expected a positive ending 3% looks a massive gain either a correction can be expected tomoro.at least I expect it,and will trade accordingly. At the start of the bad mood i jumped off a bit and waiting for all the smoke to clear and lower fire to douse.what is your opinion and what do your technicals say-)?

You can check technicals here.

http://www.traderji.com/equities/39957-nifty-daily-price-analysis-5.html#post433615

Tc

 

[oilman5]

its imp ,what u play and how u play?
yesterday quick move shows ......1day atleast upbias, if 5000nifty .....strong buy is expected.......
understand what in ur hand.........a quick visualisation of this possible scenario , would had help u to earn.
market fall u can not avoid,but at first sign of it,.......2week back sell and sit on cash is very well possible.
this view is from trading perspective..........for all investment idea ,.......big dip is good buy ........provided hidden fundamental has no problem.......key word is hidden.

 

[SwingKing]

Dear sir, I think you misunderstood me , i am not against analysts though i worded my comments as a general statement but i am against the genre of analysts who scam the people for their own gains to move the market according to their own tunes.I certainly understand the pains of using brains to map the market movements and do respect the people who do these analyses which seem mundane to people like me. Then speaking about myself i am a bit of both i invest a fraction of my corpus into what i myself consider as gems. And also trade, but do not ride the waves daily as my profession does not give me so much of free time. What I feel is that whenever i see markets consistently falling for 2 weeks I become an alarmist myself, I could draw a lot of parallels between the current world scenario and the one during the 2001-2002 fall. As you said a near 500 point fall is an oppurtunity, is it not wise to protect our investments from such a fall...

Pegasus,

A 100 point move in Bull market is followed by 50 point down move. It is again followed by a 100 point upmove. This is how market's function. Anyone who says he protects his capital from the falling 50 points is lying. It is very difficult to do this and not all have the necessary skill and the patience to execute this. Since your profession does not suit trading kind of participation, it is better if you switch to the investment mode. Market's will always rise and fall. But the point is to have one opinion and stick to it until you get evidence of your opinion being wrong.

Secondly, I agree to your 2001-2002 world economy view. Adding to it, I would state that US during that time was posing problems and currently Europe and China are posing the same. What makes me more worried is the deal of information asymmetry that lies withing the problem. I don't expect this mess to be cleared any time soon. There are lot of concerns still out there. Only time will decide how things will work out.

Tc

 

[oilman5]

sirjeeee profit profit and only profit. Plz u n aw10 sir should come on cnbc.

These two gentlemen r not idiot nor fraud............they dont reqd %......to come to media to tell lies........understand media hype is different ball game.......no trader does that.......till he can earn..........after retirement/failure people switch to different profession.......i have seen many failed trader.........to work as TA callgiver

 

[kingpin]

Nifty should now be on reversal path. 76.4% retracement reached and breached on 25th and 26th !! Today market has clearly opened high and sustained upward momentum through the day closing (just now) at 5002. Also Dow has shown an important reversal sign.....Hammer at the last session.....bears tried their best but bulls contained them. Also Dow's DMI is at 42 which is very high and +DI is all time low at 9. RSI too is at a low of 30.

The Dow factor is taken as NIFTY seems to have a high beta correlation with world markets.

Bull days are back again!!

 

[pkapadia]

I understand the eagerness that traders have to spot the trend early so they can capitalise on it. But these are the facts:

(1) on 03/05/10 Nifty closed at 5222.75 with a mild trend that could have made it bullish or bearish.
(2) on 04/05/10 Nifty closed at 5148.5 and the trend turned distinctly bearish.
(3) after 4th, (barring 10th, 12th and 13th) Nifty has not managed to close above this level (or even above 5200 for that matter).

So it is clear to me that for the trend to turn bullish, Nifty has to close above 5150 on EOD basis for me to even consider bullish calls. As of now, I will still look for shorting opportunities on every rise at appropriate level IMHO.