Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[SwingKing]

I think the fundamental difference between our viewpoints stems from the fact that you treat market movements to be isolated and unaffected by news and events whereas I feel events are the basis of market movements in the first place. Since on a regular basis these mass of events follow a predictable patterns the charts too look regular. (why ? it in fact follows the Fibonacci series )

My hypothesis is that events can be categorised and each category has a particular impact on charts. Most of the times seemingly unrelated events are actually repetition of a particular category. Since that random mix of NORMAL category of events occur frequently we get a predictable indications. However, once in a while we get abnormal events out side this category (like 9/11) and then predictive powers of the charts (and their derived parameters) break down completely.

GS indiction is not that extreme but well it is a strong event.

It is like in normal circumstances mostly Newton's laws hold but in special cases ( like when a body approaches speed of light) it doesn't hold - Einstein's theory of general relativity has to be used to explain the fate of the body. Extreme case is like inside a black hole all Normal laws of Physics break down completely.

Rajadawn,

I admire and respect what you think. This is because this belief works for you. For me though, it is exactly the opposite. I believe that true goal of news/rumors is to shock, entertain, and editorialize a socialist agendanot provide usable information.

Tc

 

[AW10]

For example, suppose CEO of a company x, is interviewed during market hours, and suppose he says that there is a likely bonus share that is to be declared in the ratio of 1:1.. This is unconfirmed news.. when the news is flashed.. the share trading say at 100 spikes up to 120 or so.. and this trend continues for few days, say it touches 145.. and then the share price retraces to 100, say after a week.

Saivenkat, sorry for jumping in to share my views on above example.
The chart probably is already telling u that there is resistence at 150 and support at 100. And because of this news, price just moves towards resistence in a day or two.. If this is such a bullish news then why don't price go above 150 but reverses from there.

If you read VSA and market manipulation tactics.. then this same news can be understood from different perspective. Do you think, CEO's don't have any selfish motive behind it... I know the cases, where CEO and top mgmt's yearly /quarterly bonus is linked to preformance of share price. And how much it takes to buy a reporter.. just an appointment with media and throwing some hint.. and then see the game of how novice traders do the rest of work..

There are enough of -ive news coming up, but if you observe it closely, u see a trend how headlines changes based on whether index is positive or -ive.

Hope you see my point here.
Happy Trading

 

[SwingKing]

Dear Raunak,
Still i am not clear, how you say that the opinion framed about Macroeconomic factors, is independent of your price analysis? Is my interpreting correct.....
Sorry for putting a counter response.. and also making a larger post..

Thanks and regards
Saivenkat:thumb:

Sai, after what AW10 has written, I have absolutely nothing to add. However, I need to tell you that It does not matter what I or AW10 write. Ultimately you need to decide which opinion suites you as a trader. It is you who has to trade and you need to be completely comfortable with your set of assumptions or beliefs. One advantage of a forum is you get to learn the thinking process of many traders. However, one disadvantage is that so many opinions often seem very intimidating. Hence, you need to re-think and self analyze on your own psychological make up.

Tc

 

[saivenkat]

Sai, after what AW10 has written, I have absolutely nothing to add. However, I need to tell you that It does not matter what I or AW10 write. Ultimately you need to decide which opinion suites you as a trader. It is you who has to trade and you need to be completely comfortable with your set of assumptions or beliefs. One advantage of a forum is you get to learn the thinking process of many traders. However, one disadvantage is that so many opinions often seem very intimidating. Hence, you need to re-think and self analyze on your own psychological make up.

Tc

Thanks Raunak and AW10 for taking my posts in right spirit and responding..Actually for argument sake i put forward the contrary opinion.. thereby i can learn from your views..

May be out of action for two days from today.. as temporarily i am devoid of internet.
Regards
SAIVENKAT:thumb:

 

[nimish_rulz]

Also after watching the banks rise in the last one and a half hour of trading we might not see a significant Interest rate movement tomorrow. I believe market will take it positively as we already have discounted a 0.5% increase hence the correction from 5400 to 5160 levels. Now I think it will be based on global triggers and earnings.

As I said yesterday the news for IR would be positive and this is what happens. If nifty closes above 5290 on 2 days continuously time to go long.

 

[aditya14]

Re: Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down - II

Sir, this is the second time u right on correction :clap:

i think marktes will go much lower. cnbc said so

thnk u

CNBC SAID SO...... wow than it surely must be true.
What else has CNBC said i need to note it down right now.... hahaha

 

[SwingKing]

Re: Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down - II

Sir, this is the second time u right on correction :clap:

i think marktes will go much lower. cnbc said so

thnk u

Adi don't ever believe what CNBC or any other media channel say about market directions etc. Regarding correction, I think it has still not materialized. We are in the process of initiating that phase. Market action will determine whether to hold that view or to reverse it at appropriate time.

Tc.

 

[sudoku1]

Re: Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down - II

Adi don't ever believe what CNBC or any other media channel say about market directions etc. Regarding correction, I think it has still not materialized. We are in the process of initiating that phase. Market action will determine whether to hold that view or to reverse it at appropriate time.

Tc.

Cartoon Network Business Channel
?

 

[YogeshD2010]

Hi Raunak,

Good study u have..

What is the next support level for nifty to hold.

Thanks in Advance,
Yog

 

[SwingKing]

If we don't stabilize around 4950, we could see levels of 4700 soon.