Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[SwingKing]

Yesterday we also saw bearish engulfing bar.. It was 108 points range day compared to average range of 68 points. That means, we saw bearish price action at 1.5 times of current mkt range. Today's candle with lower low is also confirming the action of yesterday. As it is rangebound day so far (at 2.45 pm), it is possible that last minute action could make it either green or red with very little effort. But that doesn't change the broader picture.. reality is we spent major part of today below yesterdays low and yesterdays close.

Lets see what comes out on weekend and on Monday to get clearer picture. (just my views )

Happy Trading

To be precise, yesterday was an outside bearish engulfing bar.

And today's price action is just soothing out some nerves out there in the market's. On close inspection, weakness is being seen on other indices as well. For Eg. Hang seng has begun it's decline after testing the neckline formed by H&S. Also, FTSE is now forming a pattern which usually occurs during late stages of an intermediate move. Will be posting a detailed post in the Nifty price analysis thread on this subject.

Tc

 

[pasha]

Nasdaq already down 0.66%. Monday is defnitely going to be a big day for us as well. Looks like the bull run is over and time to get out.
Coming close to May, the season of crashes.

 

[AW10]

Still few hours left for US market to show its colour. Today is option expiry day as well.
So keep fingers crossed till it finally closes.

 

[SwingKing]

As of now Dow is down 1.3%. Now the reason am interested is because the volatility levels have spiked up. SO let's see how the market closes. That will be crucial.

 

[rajadawn]

Guys, Breaking news on CNN - Goldman Sachs has been charged by SEC for securities fraud for misselling CDOs. This may have caused some turbulence in the US market... like volcanic ash over europe can this halt the bull engines world over?

 

[SwingKing]

We are technical traders. We don't bother about news dear. The fact is that charts were weak since one week. And now the news may reflect whatever it wants to.

Tc

 

[AW10]

Raunak, but GS news could be trigger.. Lets see what comes up on Monday in global mkts.. Due to weekend, there will be lot of speculation on it..

happy trading

 

[SwingKing]

Yes indeed anything could happen. May be people may figure out there's nothing serious. Else it might be the other way round. But news creates a lot of if's and but's. Personally I don't like that. Just my opinion.

Tc

 

[SwingKing]

Just stay away from adding any long positions. Market's are witnessing broad based selling. And by broad based I mean locally and globally. During such periods, it's better not to speculate.

Tc

 

[AW10]

Yes indeed anything could happen. May be people may figure out there's nothing serious. Else it might be the other way round. But news creates a lot of if's and but's. Personally I don't like that. Just my opinion.

Tc

Raunak, even if this is the case, and GS has to pay fine to SEC after usual legal battle, it is not going to hurt GS in any way. The amount in consideration is not even 1 days trading profit of GS.
To me it just indicates that authorities/regulators are behind Investment banks and that creates good amount of -ive news with very little insight into it.

Lets not forget, the EU country heads are also blaming GS for the financial mess of Greece where GS sold instruments to Greece govt allowed them to hide their debt from reporting to EU.. Otherwise, it is difficult for a country to cross the EU limit of 3% debt of GDP and show 12% of gdp as debt in few months time.

By the way, SEC also has to show that they are doing their job. So let them do their job while we focus on the charts and our trade.

Happy Trading