Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[SwingKing]

AW10 ... any views going forward ???

... the kind of volumes that have been clocked makes me more cautious ... Although still not completely bearish ...

3rd November 2009 saw same kind of activity (cut of 3% with huge volumes). However, the next day markets shot upto the same level. Need to see what happens tomm ...

I think technically, I am not watching for any particular Nifty level. Am more interested in the level 10,500 on the dow ...

Lets C ... hope the best happens for everyone ...

Had taken a positional call yestrdy .. shorted at 5230 ... simply based on a three bell reversal ... worked well ..

Tc.

 

[bunny]

AW10 ... any views going forward ???

... the kind of volumes that have been clocked makes me more cautious ... Although still not completely bearish ...

3rd November 2009 saw same kind of activity (cut of 3% with huge volumes). However, the next day markets shot upto the same level. Need to see what happens tomm ...

I think technically, I am not watching for any particular Nifty level. Am more interested in the level 10,500 on the dow ...

Lets C ... hope the best happens for everyone ...

Had taken a positional call yestrdy .. shorted at 5230 ... simply based on a three bell reversal ... worked well ..

Tc.

Its is mostly a shakeout because there is strength in background.

 

[SwingKing]

Its is mostly a shakeout because there is strength in background.

Thnx Bunny ... Always good to know your opinion ..

Tc.

 

[AW10]

AW10 ... any views going forward ???

... the kind of volumes that have been clocked makes me more cautious ... Although still not completely bearish ...

3rd November 2009 saw same kind of activity (cut of 3% with huge volumes). However, the next day markets shot upto the same level. Need to see what happens tomm ...

I think technically, I am not watching for any particular Nifty level. Am more interested in the level 10,500 on the dow ...

Lets C ... hope the best happens for everyone ...

Had taken a positional call yestrdy .. shorted at 5230 ... simply based on a three bell reversal ... worked well ..

Tc.

Raunak.
This is something that I wrote in my NR7 thread on 5-Jan.

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-trading-strategies/29825-trading-nr7-setup-57.html#post399360

Today was nice expansion day to come out of 5200-5300 range. It just confirms my previous view (bearish, top formation etc). So I have no reason to change my view.
This leg can easily take us to 47/4800 level. We might see bounce / pre budget rally but the kind of resistance that we have built up at 5300, it will be challenge to see significant upside beyond that level.

But Jan series might not take us out of 5000/ 5300 level (looking at built up of options OIs)..

From trading perspective, I really don't care for next target and ready to follow whatever direction market is going. On positional trades, I am on short side. And on swing trades, again I am on short side Booked partial profit today after extraordinary move of double the average range in my favour. Will be looking for weakness around 5200 to Add more positional short. IMO, bounce is just around the corner after 3 days of 200 points fall and as we approach major level of 5000. Swing position will change the direction first, if that's what market tells me tomorrow or later. I will be conservative with my long swing position, whenever that comes cause I am trading against my higher TF trend.

(sorry bunny, probably we will be taking opposite positions but that's what market is all about)

These are just my views and I am trading them. Happy to be proven wrong my market and then I will adjust my positions.

Happy Trading.

 

[SwingKing]

These are just my views and I am trading them. Happy to be proven wrong my market and then I will adjust my positions.

Happy Trading.

Well, from the last time we had a discussion, there were quite a number of things that made me sure that probability of Nifty downside would indeed be on the cards. The U.S. results (key statistics in real estate and banking sector), the impact of china sucking out liquidity (attempt to control credit expansion), relative performance between Asian Indices and Indian counterparts, the relation of copper prices and the equity markets and the Industrial growth figures posted by India (numbers were good, but not many realised that the Industrial growth in India lags behind the credit growth of the country by 2 quarters. To keep this historical relation valid, the rate hike by the RBI has to be on the cards). All I had to decide was how would all these factors impact the market. Going by technical's and combining them with things mentioned above I decided to cut down my long positions and decided to build up short one's. If you look at the investor confidence report which has come out this week in the U.S., the investor confidence has been on a new high ever since 2007. I always get sceptical reading such reports.

I have carried trades from around 5230 (short) to present. However, I still have about 5% trades in the long side. Towards, short side I have trades in Nifty, Bajaj Auto and some other high beta stocks. Will definitely look to exit my long positions once the bounce back occurs.

Again this is just my opinion and it's still based on probability. Let's see how things work out ... Market's are the king ...

Tc.

 

[enygma]

I think that the most important thing that happened today for us as traders is the range expansion. The BBs were so restricted even on dailies that a move either direction had to happen. We can look forward to some more wide range days with credit policy action, results and expiry around the corner.

Liquidity in these markets appears and disappears in a day. Tomorrow, if we hit 5200, everyone will be taking about FII buying and what not. Better to just trade the charts which currently have red all over them ...

Regards,
Enygma.

Raunak.
This is something that I wrote in my NR7 thread on 5-Jan.

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-trading-strategies/29825-trading-nr7-setup-57.html#post399360

Today was nice expansion day to come out of 5200-5300 range. It just confirms my previous view (bearish, top formation etc). So I have no reason to change my view.
This leg can easily take us to 47/4800 level. We might see bounce / pre budget rally but the kind of resistance that we have built up at 5300, it will be challenge to see significant upside beyond that level.

But Jan series might not take us out of 5000/ 5300 level (looking at built up of options OIs)..

From trading perspective, I really don't care for next target and ready to follow whatever direction market is going. On positional trades, I am on short side. And on swing trades, again I am on short side Booked partial profit today after extraordinary move of double the average range in my favour. Will be looking for weakness around 5200 to Add more positional short. IMO, bounce is just around the corner after 3 days of 200 points fall and as we approach major level of 5000. Swing position will change the direction first, if that's what market tells me tomorrow or later. I will be conservative with my long swing position, whenever that comes cause I am trading against my higher TF trend.

(sorry bunny, probably we will be taking opposite positions but that's what market is all about)

These are just my views and I am trading them. Happy to be proven wrong my market and then I will adjust my positions.

Happy Trading.

 

[pshirurkar]

But what about volumes?.Today in the downfall total turnover is very high, more than 1,25,000 cr.This may be the alarming figure.

 

[AW10]

I don't know from where u got 125000 Cr as volume.
NSE trade value for today is 17758 Cr... And FII + DII buy volume is 4483 Cr.

FII/DII numbers are not too high.. Though FII numbers have been -ive on 7 out of last 8days. So certainly someone is withdrawing the money, but who is buying then ? Is it the weaker hands buying now?

Anyway, today is over, lets see what comes tomorrow.

Happy Trading

 

[bunny]

sorry bunny, probably we will be taking opposite positions but that's what market is all about)

Not "probably", we are indeed taking opposite views, and I have just opened long positions yesterday. I am bullish because what we have seen today is a shake-out, IMO.

I was in a similar situation on 3 NOV. On 31 OCT (2nd last day of the bear move), I had posted about "seeing strength" on charts. But on 3rd nov, we fell badly and that obviously demoralized me and I was "suckered" into a short position - right at the bottom of the bear leg. The mistake made that time was surrendering to the news, emotions, etc. inspite of having seen strength of chart. I do not want that to happen this time again. Anyways, bygones are bygones - what happened last time may not happen this time.

 

[pshirurkar]

HI mr AW10,
total turnover includes cash+ f&o .you might have calculated cash volume only. today also upto 2.30pm total turnover both in cash and derivative segment crossed morn than 1,34,000cr.
thanks.