Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[SwingKing]

What are your targets?
Its like some people just don`t smell the coffee its a liquidity driven rally with all the indices making 14-19 month highs and you are talking about a crash.Look at the weekly daily or monthly charts and show me any weakness and the amount of money rolling in january so far shows that this rally is FOR REAL people.Barring a few hiccups.

And that major doji reversal crap is consolidation at the top.Do u expect a oneway move all the time we are breaking highs so consolidation is common it should be worrying for bears that the consolidation isn`t deep.

I may not be able to smell the coffee. But, I just followed what people like Martin Pring and Steve Nison have taught. Do you know more than them ?? Well, I doubt that.

I would love to see this thread in february

Who said feb or march ??

I bet someone is short big time.Now u started off this thread with TA and starting now to talk about fundamentals....

Ok the earnings will start to pour in and that theory of fundamentals should be put to bed now.

Lets see...

It's all relative dear. You have to analyse to put things together. It's not about tip seeking.

Whenever I had positions, I had disclosed them.

THIS THREAD SHOULD BE USED AS BAROMETER.When people around u say its gonna crash just believe in the growth story and say AAL IZZ WELL!!!!!

Indeed this thread SHOULD have been used as a barometer ... at least it would have helped some to be cautious. ....

Mr Aditya, I saw the facts and then stated it. I use this forum to contribute and not to seek tips. There was no reason for you to ridicule it so much ... Nifty has corrected 300 points from the day Aw10 and I had a discussion ... Hope you now realise that no one can be correct all the time ... And I have been ignoring you (and will continue to do so) untill you develop correct attitude towards forum. People like you affect the learning curve for all ..

Am still maintaining a humble view and I wait to see whether you adopt the same or you'll still be your arrogant self, ridicuiling nearly everything without any pragmatic approach.Barring you, everyone took the post contructively. It just reflects your naivness in the markets.

Correction has happened, and now let's see where things go. It may continue or the market might indeed rally.

Tc and I hope good things happen to you.

 

[imgkg]

today's 22/01/10 observations shows a hanging man,i am not sure how much its right,but i feel nifty will go down till 4900 in feb ,there is huge pressure to push it down,i can be wrong though i am not sure about it.

 

[raj_caps]

I think unless 4924 is taken out in a closing basis market will get back to the 5150 levels

 

[SwingKing]

I think unless 4924 is taken out in a closing basis market will get back to the 5150 levels

I was waiting for this correction. Now, going ahead there might be few sessions marked with volatility. But now since the market has corrected from 5300 to 4960 and taken support at this level (also happens to be intersection point of a important trend line) the markets may well have a good chance to move up. I have lightened up my short positions at 4980 levels and have built up a few long positions. Though I have not built aggressively long positions. A correction like this, is certainly very healthy for the market. Now whether this turns out into something bigger is something only time will tell. If the trendline takes support (for next 2-3 sessions), I will look to aggressively build long positions.

I'm watching out for the Dow and the important trendline support on Nifty. Refer figure below.

This is how I am trading Nifty now. I had shorted the Nifty at 5230 as previously mentioned and I squared off 70% of my short positions today. Refer to the figure below. The nifty had violated Trendline 1 (marked in white) and hence shorting was a good opportunity. Now, after two days of volatility, the Nifty has taken support at Trendline 2 marked in Red. Till this support prevails, I will look to be long in the market with fewer short positions for restricting loss. Support at trendline 2 was formed with hammer-like formation and support has a good chance to hold.

 

[SwingKing]

today's 22/01/10 observations shows a hanging man,i am not sure how much its right,but i feel nifty will go down till 4900 in feb ,there is huge pressure to push it down,i can be wrong though i am not sure about it.

Hanging man is formed at the top of a rally. It's a major reversal pattern. What we have witnessed today is a "Hammer - like" formation at a important trendline level. It might also indicate strength underneath. Refer chart in previous post.

However, volatility could be high. Following sessions will decide the course ahead.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Dow is looking weak today as well. This is exactly what had happened before expiry in December the world markets trying to go up but ended up correcting. Lets see where is the next move. Hong Kong and China on verge of forming lower lows than previous months which would be a really bad indication and also Hong Kong has fallen massively for 7 out of days.

 

[imgkg]

Hanging man is formed at the top of a rally. It's a major reversal pattern. What we have witnessed today is a "Hammer - like" formation at a important trendline level. It might also indicate strength underneath. Refer chart in previous post.

However, volatility could be high. Following sessions will decide the course ahead.

yea my bad its hammer,i was confused because overall trend is up.

 

[aditya14]

Its ok Raunak u can gloat all u want now but if u are suggesting that it was the delayed shooting star on the charts which led to OBAMA saying banks would not be allowed to do prop trading then i say waah ustaad maan gaye aapke technical analysis ko.

Tc and I hope great things happen to you.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Its ok Raunak u can gloat all u want now but if u are suggesting that it was the delayed shooting star on the charts which led to OBAMA saying banks would not be allowed to do prop trading then i say waah ustaad maan gaye aapke technical analysis ko.

Tc and I hope great things happen to you.

Hey man relax. I was long with you because our system told us "that going long is good" but Raunak warned us because his system said otherwise not Obama or anyone.
I am still hanging in there because my model is sill showing buying at lower levels and there can be a turn around. But it looks very bleak according to the fundamentals.
Prop trading is not related to our banks but because these Foreign Institutional Investors don't know what the exact status would be these guys are selling their holding as they don't know what rules would come out.
It doesn't make sense in criticizing Raunak or for that matter Obama it was a lesson for us and we move on we want market to go in a direction not range bound I ll take the loss on the chin from these down turns and will try not to make any more mistakes. I actually gained money in yesterday's trading session because of Jindal Steel and BHEL but will use today's low as stop losses for Monday.
The bottom line is that his model was correct and what he said stood out and I was wrong don't know about you. Lets keep it healthy and learn from each other. Many thanks

 

[adultvish]

great thread guys