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Sensex & Nifty Technicals - 11th Feb

BULLS DEFEND 6044 ON TODAY CLOSING. ABOVE 6088, BULLS CAN MOVE TOWARDS 6133-55 LEVEL.

6088 IS FIRST RESISTANCE. THE 6133-55 IS BIG RESISTANCE. ABOVE 6155 BULLS CAN TARGET NEW HIGHS.

THE WEEKLY PIVOT 6022 IS FIRST SUPPORT. NOW THE 200DMA IS AT 5977. SO THE LEVEL 5955-77 IS BIG SUPPORT. BELOW 5955 BEARS CAN TARGET 5733 AND 5622.

WEEKLY CHARTS HAVING TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 5733 LEVEL.

NIFTY FUTURE : TUESDAY
===================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 6088 TARGET 6111/6133 STOPLOSS 6066
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 6044 TARGET 6022/6000 STOPLOSS 6066

BANKNIFTY : TUESDAY
=================
BUY ABOVE 10244 TARGET 10333/10422 STOPLOSS 10200
SELL BELOW 10155 TARGET 10066/ 9977 STOPLOSS 10200
 
MCX monthly turnover rises after management changes [Mint, New Delhi :: ]

Monthly turnover on Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX), a unit of Financial Technologies (India) Ltd (FTIL), has risen by nearly a third since November, following regulatory steps taken to ring-fence the operations of MCX from promoter FTIL. :clap:

National Spot Exchange Ltd(NSEL), a group company of FTIL, is currently engulfed in a Rs.5,574.35 crore payment crisis. As a fallout of the payment crisis, commodity markets regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) had also ruled that FTIL, which is also the largest shareholder in MCX, is not a "fit and proper person" to continue to be a shareholder of 2% or more in the bourse. Following which, the MCX board on 27 December, had asked its promoter FTIL to reduce its stake to 2% in accordance with the regulator's order.

In terms of value, the monthly turnover has increased from a low of Rs.3.99 trillion in November to Rs.5.19 trillion in January, an increase of 29%. To be sure, turnover remains far below the Rs.7.76 trillion seen in the month of July before the NSEL crisis came to light. Between July and November, as the crisis at NSEL unfolded, turnover on MCX declined by 48%. While there has been some revival in the last three months, turnover remains 33% below what was recorded in the month of July.

"The main reason why the volumes have gone up in MCX is because there is an improvement in investor sentiment due to change in top management and board in MCX," Kishore Narne, head of commodity and currency at brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. "A lot of efforts have also been made by the management of MCX and brokers to restore confidence of investors. This has definitely helped in bringing back the investors who had so far refrained from investing in commodities." :thumb:

Meanwhile, turnover on rival National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) has been largely steady over the November-January period. The exchange registered a turnover of Rs.98,800 crore in January compared to Rs.1.05 trillion in December and Rs.96,200 crore in November.

The MCX board and management have seen a string of resignations since the settlement crisis at NSEL surfaced. On 30 August, six MCX directors -- Venkat Chary, C.M. Maniar, Shvetal Vakil, Prakash Apte, Lambertus Rutten and P.R. Barpande -- resigned from the board. On 19 October, MCX's managing director and CEO Shreekant Javalgekar also resigned. Joseph Massey, who was to retire by rotation as a director in the company, had withdrawn his offer for reappointment on 25 September.

On 31 October, Jignesh Shah resigned as non-executive vice-chairman of MCX after sector regulator FMC issued a notice to him and FTIL questioning their "fit and proper" status. Paras Ajmera, the last nominee of the promoter FTIL on MCX's board, also stepped down on 13 November.

Since then, under direction from FMC, the MCX board has been reconstituted and now includes four directors nominated by the regulator, three FMC approved directors and five nominees of shareholders such as the State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda and others.

Manoj Vaish, who until recently was the managing director and CEO of NSDL Database Management Ltd, took charge as the CEO of MCX on 1 February.

"New leadership overseeing the functioning of MCX has increased the confidence of clients who were sceptical in investing in MCX platform due to NSEL crisis," said C.P. Krishnan, whole-time director, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd.

Krishnan said that the January data only reflects the fact that MCX has regained the volumes it had lost following the NSEL fiasco which had eroded the confidence of investors, but added that volumes are still very low when compared to what was seen in January last year.

MCX posted a turnover of Rs.12.97 trillion in January 2013 as against Rs.5.19 trillion in January 2014. Part of this fall has been due to the introduction of the commodities transaction tax (CTT), which was implemented in July, and impacted the volume of trade across all commodity exchanges. :thumb:

Turnover on the six national commodity exchanges led by MCX shrank 36% to Rs.82.46 trillion in the nine months ended 31 December due to an escalation in the cost of trading.

Deven Choksey, managing director and CEO of KR Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd, echoed Krishnan's views by saying that bringing in a professional management has greatly improved the confidence of investors but added that it would take a long time for MCX to move back to the level of volumes seen before the NSEL crisis broke.

"For volumes to come back to their peak levels, the NSEL crisis has to be completely resolved and investors should get back their money," said Choksey.

Irregularities at NSEL came to light on 31 July when the exchange abruptly suspended trading in all but its e-series contracts. These, too, were suspended a week later. The closure of trading may have been prompted by an instruction from the ministry of consumer affairs asking the exchange not to offer futures contracts. A spot exchange isn't supposed to do so, but NSEL was doing that.

NSEL tried to implement the change, but because its appeal was to investors and members who were not interested in spot trades, it eventually had to suspend all trading. It later emerged that all the trading on NSEL happened in paired contracts, with investors, through brokers, buying a spot contract and selling a futures one for the same commodity.

The entities selling on spot and buying futures were planters or processors and members of the exchange. It turned out there were only 24 of them, and they used the paired contracts as a way to raise easy money. When the trading was suspended, the investors were left holding contracts that the members couldn't buy because they didn't have the money to do so.

On 14 August, NSEL proposed a payout plan, but it has been unable to stick to the schedule and has not made a single successful payout since.
 
Sensex & Nifty Technicals - 14th Feb

THE SUPPORT GIVEN BY THE WEEKLY PIVOT 6022 TAKE AWAY BY BEARS. CLOSES WELL BELOW 6022 AT 6001.

NOW THE 200DMA IS AT 5977. SO THE LEVEL 5955-77 IS BIG SUPPORT.
BELOW 5955 BEARS CAN TARGET 5733 AND 5622.

WEEKLY CHARTS HAVING TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 5733 LEVEL.

THE LONG TERM TREND LINE IN THE MONTHLY CHART IS NOW AT 5622 LEVEL.

BEARS MAY TEST ANY ONE THE ABOVE LINES BEFORE 18/02/2014.

ON THE UPSIDE BULLS HAVE TO SEE A CLOSE ABOVE 6155 TO TAKE THE CONTROL.

NIFTY FUTURE : FRIDAY
==================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 6022 TARGET 6044/6066 STOPLOSS 6000
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 5977 TARGET 5955/5933 STOPLOSS 6000

BANKNIFTY : FRIDAY
===============
BUY ABOVE 10177 TARGET 10266/10355 STOPLOSS 10133
SELL BELOW 10088 TARGET 10000/ 9911 STOPLOSS 10133
 
MCX Q3 Results:

The Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX), India’s No.1 commodity futures exchange and the nation’s first listed exchange, announced its unaudited financial results for the Nine months ended December 31, 2013.

9MFY2013-14 vs 9MFY2012-13 results

For the period of nine months ended December 31, 2013, MCX’s total income decreased by 28% to Rs. 342.95 crore from Rs. 475.67 crore during the corresponding period ended December 31, 2012.
EBITDA for the nine months ended December 31, 2013 stood at Rs. 170.24 crore
Net Profit for the nine months ended December 31, 2013 stood at Rs. 109.00 crore
For the nine months ended December 31, 2013, the EBITDA margin was 50% and PAT margin was 32%.

Q3FY2013-14 vs Q3FY2012-13 results

For the quarter ended December 31, 2013, MCX’s total income decreased by 51% to Rs. 79.59 crore from Rs. 162.78 crore during the corresponding quarter ended December 31, 2012.
EBITDA for the quarter ended December 31, 2013 stood at Rs. 35.83 crore
Net Profit for the quarter ended December 31, 2013 stood at Rs. 21.83 crore
For the quarter ended December 31, 2013
, the EBITDA margin was 45% and PAT margin was 27%.

Operational Performance
The average daily turnover traded on MCX for 9MFY2013-14 stood at Rs. 30,585 crore
According to data maintained by the regulator of commodity markets in India, Forward Markets Commission (FMC), during 9MFY2013-14 MCX’s market share was 86.4% of the Indian commodity futures market in terms of the value of the contracts traded.

Dr. Manoj Vaish, MD & CEO – MCX said: “I would like to thank the MCX board for having given me an opportunity to lead a great organisation with strong fundamentals. We will focus on nurturing the Exchange’s strengths and transform it into a professional and compliance-driven institution. We intend to provide a transparent, efficient and well-developed marketplace by espousing innovations and best practices in all facets of our business, developing market linkages and engendering wide participation. In this endeavor, we are guided by a newly re-constituted Board comprising 14 members, of whom 7 are Independent Directors and 6 Shareholder Directors.”

He added, “MCX’s performance during Q3 FY2014 has been encouraging, despite the challenges such as imposition of Commodities Transaction Tax on non-agri commodities and weak market sentiments, among others. The Exchange retained its position as India’s largest commodity exchange with a market share of about 86%.” :thumb:

Stock Call:
MCX Profits june qtr 60.12 crores, sep qtr 27.05 crores, Dec qtr 21.84 crores ; EPS were 11.79 5.30 4.31 = 21.40 for 9 months if EPS for Mar qtr comes to 4.6

EPS for the 12 months would be 26...

If stock trades at 20 times.. Price will be 520 and
If stock trades at 25 times.. Price will be 650 and
If stock trades at 30 times.. Price will be 780 ....
 
Sensex & Nifty Technicals - 21st Feb

BULLS SLIP DOWN FROM THE 6155 RESISTANCE. TAKE SUPPORT AT 6066-88 LEVEL AND CLOSES AT 6091.

GOOD SUPPORT SEEN AT 6066-88 LEVEL. ON THE DOWNSIDE, BELOW 6044 IT IS BEARS AREA. BEARS HAVE SOME DEEP DOWNSIDE TARGETS.

TECHNICAL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
--------------------------------
BULLS HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE BELOW 6088 AS SL.

BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR A CLOSE BELOW 6088.

NIFTY FUTURE : FRIDAY
==================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 6133 TARGET 6155/6177 STOPLOSS 6111
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 6088 TARGET 6066/6044 STOPLOSS 6111

BANKNIFTY : FRIDAY
===============
BUY ABOVE 10488 TARGET 10577/10666 STOPLOSS 10444
SELL BELOW 10400 TARGET 10311/10222 STOPLOSS 10444
 
Sensex & Nifty Technicals - 24th Feb

THE 6133-55 LEVEL IS IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL. BULLS SEE A WEEKLY CLOSE AT 6155.

THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 6111. ALL THE CLOSES ABOVE 6111 ARE BULLS AREA. 6288 IS THE WEEKLY TARGET FOR BULLS.

ANY CLOSE BELOW 6111 WILL BRING BEARS INTO THE SYSTEM. 6022 AND 5933 ARE THE DREAM DESTINATIONS FOR BEARS.

TECHNICAL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
==========================
BULLS HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE BELOW 6111 AS SL FOR ALL LONGS.

BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR A CLOSE BELOW 6111.

NIFTY FUTURE : MONDAY
===================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 6177 TARGET 6200/6222 STOP-LOSS 6155
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 6133 TARGET 6111/6088 STOP-LOSS 6155

BANKNIFTY : MONDAY
=================
BUY ABOVE 10577 TARGET 10666/10755 STOP-LOSS 10533
SELL BELOW 10488 TARGET 10400/10311 STOP-LOSS 10533
 
Sensex & Nifty Technicals - 25th Feb

SLOWLY BULLS JUMP OVER THE 6133-55 LEVEL, WHICH IS IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL. BULLS SEE A CLOSE AT 6186.

ABOVE 6200, 6244 AND 6288 ARE THE TARGETS FOR BEARS.

THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 6111. ALL THE CLOSES ABOVE 6111 ARE BULLS AREA.

ANY CLOSE BELOW 6111 WILL BRING BEARS INTO THE SYSTEM. 6022 AND 5933 ARE THE DREAM DESTINATIONS FOR BEARS.

NIFTY WEEKLY RANGE
===================
5933/5977/6022/6066-6111-6155/6200/6244/6288

NIFTY FUTURE : TUESDAY
===================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 6222 TARGET 6244/6266 STOP-LOSS 6177
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 6155 TARGET 6133/6111 STOP-LOSS 6177

BANKNIFTY : TUESDAY
=================
BUY ABOVE 10733 TARGET 10822/10911 STOP-LOSS 10688
SELL BELOW 10644 TARGET 10555/10466 STOP-LOSS 10688
 
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