Intraday calls

[n_arvind2000]

Sensex & Nifty Technicals - 26th Feb

ON WEDNESDAY, ABOVE 6222 BULLS MAY TOUCH 6266. BELOW 6177 BEARS MAY TEST 6133.

ALL REMAINS SAME AS FOLLOWS, THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 6111. ALL THE CLOSES ABOVE 6111 ARE BULLS AREA.

ANY CLOSE BELOW 6111 WILL BRING BEARS INTO THE SYSTEM. 6022 AND 5933 ARE THE DREAM DESTINATIONS FOR BEARS.

NIFTY WEEKLY RANGE
===================
5933/5977/6022/6066-6111-6155/6200/6244/6288

NIFTY FUTURE : WEDNESDAY
======================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 6222 TARGET 6244/6266 STOP-LOSS 6200
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 6177 TARGET 6155/6133 STOP-LOSS 6200

BANK NIFTY : WEDNESDAY
====================
BUY ABOVE 10711 TARGET 10800/10888 STOP-LOSS 10666
SELL BELOW 10622 TARGET 10533/10444 STOP-LOSS 10666

 

[n_arvind2000]

MCX: Trading around 530 odd levels..
Market Rumours: Rakesh Jhunjunwala acquiring stake in mcx... If news is correct.. mcx will go for 700-750 levels.. in short term!

 

[n_arvind2000]

Wish you and your family a Happy & Prosperous Diwali ...

Muhurat Pick ----- IPCA LABORATORIES LTD...

Accumulate IPCA Labs around 710 levels... TARGETS - 774 - 859 - 985 SL 680

Will give a detailed update in the next post....

 

[timepass]

Wish you and your family a Happy & Prosperous Diwali ...

Wishing you the same :thumb:

 

[n_arvind2000]

Wish you and your family a Happy & Prosperous Diwali ...

Muhurat Pick ----- IPCA LABORATORIES LTD...

Accumulate IPCA Labs around 710 levels... TARGETS - 774 - 859 - 985 SL 680

Will give a detailed update in the next post....

IPCA LABS Report:


Voluntary stoppage of API supplies to US to impact formulations sales...

IPCA has voluntarily stopped shipment from its API facility in Ratlam, India post the observations (form 483) listed by the US
FDA in its recent inspection. IPCA received six observations, of which two relate to data integrity.

This development will also have an impact on the formulations plants (Indore SEZ and Silvassa), which source majority of the APIs from the Ratlam site.
The US market contributed ~ 10% to FY14 sales (INR3b).

IPCA expects no sales in the US from September 2014 till the time the US FDA issues are resolved. It expects to resolve these issues over the next 4-6 months.
We estimate cumulative sales loss of USD41m/62m/49m for FY15/FY16/FY17, which includesloss of current sales and delay in new launches.

Presence in products that suit IPCA’s capabilities and past record of swift US FDA resolution gives us comfort despite massive earnings cuts.

Despite the significant earnings cut, we maintain our Buy rating. We draw comfort from (a) swift resolution of US FDA issues at Indore SEZ within 10 months
,and (b) high probability of IPCA re gaining lost market share , as these are high volume/mature products , making it difficult
for competition to match IPCA’s scale. We build in a gradual recovery in the US, starting 2HFY15 and expect FY16 to be a normalized year of operations.

We move our valuations and target price to FY16. Our revised target price is INR 985 (13.4x FY16E EPS). :clapping: :thumb: :clap:

IPCA Labs posted sales of Rs928cr (V/s an expected Rs913cr), a yoy growth of 17.0%. The sales growth was driven by exports, which rose by 14.3% yoy, while domestic sales rose by 20.7% yoy. On the OPM front, the margins came in at 24.0% (V/s an expected 22.9%), an expansion of 410bp yoy, mainly on back of GPM expansion. The GPM for the quarter stood at 63.1%, V/s 59.1% in 1QFY2014. The OPM was also aided by a lower rise in other expenditure (of 13.8% yoy). Thus, the Adj. PAT came in at Rs145.5cr (V/s an expected Rs147.8cr), registering a yoy growth of 34.7%.

We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 18.8% to Rs4,563cr and EPS to register a CAGR of 20.9% to Rs58.8 over FY2014–16E, driven by the US and domestic markets.

At the current levels, the stock is trading at 15.9x and 13.4x FY2015E and FY2016E earnings, respectively.
We recommend a Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs 985 :clap: :thumb: :clapping:

Key factor to watch: Progress of clearance of USFDA issues at Ratlam facilty.

 

[Sammy.Young]

Pl continue to share your intraday ideas sir ji...tks !!

 

[n_arvind2000]

GM Friends...
Today IPCA Labs is trading 11% lower near 660 levels... Will get you the updates about the reason for today's fall...

Looks like shares exchanging hands ....FII/DII ! Will come up with the exact reason soon...

There is no reason for panic !!! I still believe, IPCA LABS is a strong hold for 985 Target in the coming months... :thumb:

Keep adding at lower levels in SIP pattern ... for best returns.. :clapping:

 

[timepass]

GM Friends...
Today IPCA Labs is trading 11% lower near 660 levels... Will get you the updates about the reason for today's fall...

Looks like shares exchanging hands ....FII/DII ! Will come up with the exact reason soon...

There is no reason for panic !!! I still believe, IPCA LABS is a strong hold for 985 Target in the coming months... :thumb:

Keep adding at lower levels in SIP pattern ... for best returns.. :clapping:

I think there was some derating by some agency.. Don't remember the details, glanced at it on ET Now..

 

[n_arvind2000]

I think there was some derating by some agency.. Don't remember the details, glanced at it on ET Now..

Credit Suisse on IPCA Laboratories Ltd:
Downgrade stock to Underperform from Neutral. Indore SEZ Form 483 suggests FDA observations are critical.

This should not be a deterent to the stock...

IPCA’s management capabilities and past record of swift US FDA resolution will give better comfort to its investors.. :thumb:

 

[n_arvind2000]

IPCA Labs Q2 Results:

IPCA Labs reported a 52.64 per cent dip in standalone net profit to Rs 61.30 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2014, mainly on account of subdued exports.

The company had posted a net profit of Rs 129.45 crore for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

Standalone total income from operations has also reduced to Rs 780.60 crore for the quarter under consideration as against Rs 846.70 crore for the same period year ago, Ipca Laboratories said in a filing to the BSE.

The company's export income fell 23% to 402.44 crore in Q2 September 2014 over Q2 September 2013.

The domestic sales (Rs. 372.1cr) grew by 17.5% yoy, aided by the domestic formulations which grew by 18.6% yoy, while API grew by 10.0% yoy. :clap: :thumb:

Ipca Laboratories' earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell 43% to 134.77 crore in Q2 September 2014 over Q2 September 2013. EBITDA margin decreased to 17.26% in Q2 September 2014 compared with 27.70% in Q2 September 2013.


My Take: Results are disappointing... and below expectations!

Few silver lining are Domestic sales improvement...by 18.6% yoy.

Angel Broking Ms. Sarabjit Kour Nangra (VP Research - Pharma, Angel Broking) backing for IPCA Labs. We maintain our buy with a target price of Rs. 843. :thumb: :clapping:

JM Financials backing... :thumb: :clap: