Intraday Microflow Method

#21
Friends,
Inspired by Nadodavs Nifty Future Mechanical Trading, Saints 60 min flow and miniflow trading one more trading technique has come into my mind which I named Intraday Micro Flow Trading Method.
Here I am going to present the core concept.

We will start our trading exactly how we start trade in Saints Mini Flow. But once we are in trade we will shift our SAR as the trade goes in our direction.

I guess this will be good if I can explain it with example. It goes like this, suppose the first 5 min bar high is 2500 and low 2450. We noted the high and low.
High = 2500 so Long above 2500+14=2514
Low = 2450 so Short below 2450-14=2436

Now suppose we get the trade at 2514 (Long), from here on we will not consider miniflow methods rather switch to microflow method with SAR at 2514-37=2477. The main advantage of this method is of its simplicity without considering pivots, false breakout and all. Let me illustrate it how it goes. As the trade progresses in our direction and nifty moved to 2520 we move the SAR at 2520-37=2483 from initial 2477. So from now onwards we will move the SAR as nifty hits the high. Again nifty cools a bit and hit 2540 we shift the SAR to 2540-37=2503. So as the trade progresses and Nifty hits now high we shift the SAR by 37 points. Now what if we hit the SAR. Simple we reverse to Short. And add 37 points to our entry and make it as new SAR. Suppose it hit the SAR at 2530 after making high of 2567. We reverse to short at 2530 and keep 2567 as new SAR. Again say nifty goes down to 2520 then starts climbing. So when Nifty makes 2520 we move the SAR to 2520+37=2557.

Well, enough explanation, I guess. The trade moves in this way.

The Advantages:

1) Its damn simple. No confusion regarding pivots and false breakout et al.
2) Loses are minimum in a single trade.
3) We are into the flow quite early.
4) Doesnt increase our BP seeing quite high SAR. SAR is always within 37 points. So loss is max 37 points in a trade.

The Disadvantages:

1) Number of trades increases.
2) Need to monitor Nifty for new high or low quite often.

Result:

I did back test on this for the current week and found good for days where the nifty range is more than 50-60 points but performs worst in this or around this range. But still I am in the process of evaluating the performance of this method and will post as I will do the back test or trade in this method. Infact today I traded using this method and was in profit.

Here is the Todays Trades.

Trade1: Long at 2631 Stopped and reverse at 2635. Profit: 4 nifty points.
Trade2: Short at 2635 stopped and reverse at 2577. Profit: 58 nifty points.
Trade3: Long at 2577, profit booked at 2642. Profit: 65 nifty points.

Total profit: 127 points.

Great Profit for day trading. But we are not always so fortunate. Like on 20th Nov. we had worst day since it was very rage bound. But quite fortunately we generally dont have many range bound days.

Back Testing:
I already did back test for the current week and results look promising. This week end I will back test for Oct and Nov and pkatil will help me for backtesting Sep. We need volunteers for more back testing.

Why not use a trailing stop loss based on ATR, may be it is more close to the current volatility. If ATR is used then it becomes a Chandelier exit. There is a variation of Chandelier exit strategy that tightens the SL as the market flows in the direction of trade.

find more from here - http://www.tradernexus.com/advancedstop/advancedstop.html
 
#23
Why not use a trailing stop loss based on ATR, may be it is more close to the current volatility. If ATR is used then it becomes a Chandelier exit. There is a variation of Chandelier exit strategy that tightens the SL as the market flows in the direction of trade.

find more from here - http://www.tradernexus.com/advancedstop/advancedstop.html
Hi Joy,

My sincere thanks to you for this wonderful link.

Regards
Mowgli
 

rishig38

Well-Known Member
#24
Rishig, Please reconsider your view, to me it seems a bit not workable. Just have a look at yesterday market. The market at 2 PM closed at 2547 and by 3 PM it had a high of 2675.. it moved by 128 points in 1 hour...how many times does one change the SAR in one hour, if he just watches the Odin or any other price screen? In fact in such a up move the SAR keeps on changing too frequently.....Almost 50 + times atleast in an hour. That is the reason we need a time frame, be it 5 minutes or whatever.
Would love to read your view in this regard.
rk, although i respect your view but according to this method, you are right, we keep on changing the SAR on the fly...probably every few seconds/minutes....kindly back test and if there is another view or tweak , it should be considered to make this a very successful method if it is not already...
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#25
Sir, I modified SAR 12 times in that one hour. If I am getting such a huge move, would not mind modifying 50 times also. :D:D

Cheers
You were not tracking it real time so how can you say the figure ? In case you calculated it as per 'tick' chart of the day ,please share the same with us here. It would be 8 times if you used a 5 minutes chart. All we need to know which is the best time frame to trail the SAR.
Thanks.
R K Karnani
ps.: Seems that it would be a real tough job to do back testing if we need to do it on a tick chart.
 

debdeeps

Active Member
#26
Back Testing Result of Oct, 2008

Date Profit/Loss
01-Oct -4
03-Oct 42
06-Oct -11
07-Oct 33
08-Oct 287
10-Oct 141
13-Oct 16
14-Oct -2
15-Oct 27
16-Oct -155
17-Oct 124
20-Oct 93
21-Oct 99
22-Oct 89
23-Oct 120
24-Oct 136
27-Oct 219
29-Oct 38
31-Oct 54
Total Profit = 1346/lot. Brokerage = 4 Nifty points taken into consideration.
 

debdeeps

Active Member
#27
Back Testing Result of Sep, 2008 (Done by Mr. PKatil)
Date Profit/Loss
01-Sep 92
02-Sep 195
04-Sep -58
05-Sep -38
08-Sep 0
09-Sep 8
10-Sep 24
11-Sep 62
12-Sep 198
15-Sep 253
16-Sep 86
17-Sep -100
18-Sep 22
19-Sep 0
22-Sep -192
23-Sep 82
24-Sep -48
25-Sep 64
26-Sep 139
29-Sep 392
30-Sep 164
Total Profit = 1345
Entry with 2 Lots of NF. One Lot will remain in the Flow till the end. Closed at 3.15/3.20 PM. Other Lot is meant for Scalping. 50 to 75 to 100 points depending on the Upward/Downward Thrust

Debdeep: Thank you very much Mr. PKatil for your valuable time and backtesting the method for the month of Sep, 2008.
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#30
rk, although i respect your view but according to this method, you are right, we keep on changing the SAR on the fly...probably every few seconds/minutes....kindly back test and if there is another view or tweak , it should be considered to make this a very successful method if it is not already...
Cannot back test, as I have only 5 minutes TF data. The back test results maynot be consistent and may differ a bit from person to person as the Trailing SAR may differ a bit. Apart from the entry rule as per mini flow have tried such methods of Fixed trailing stop loss , but was not very comfy with it. But seeing the results posted wud like to give a relook.
Thanks.