Is BSE at 7500 possible within 1 year ?

[pkjha30]

i wanted to correct you. I live in Hyderabad,AP,India. i feel you are a govt employee, let me know , if this prediction is correct.

Well I stand corrected. Somewhere you mentioned about your illustrious resume so this confusion crept in.

trying to second guess. Answer is somewhere in old posts, if you care to find.

If you do ,let me know.

BTW Hyd is indeed a beautiful city.


pk

 

[pkjha30]

I get the feeling as well that are you are a Govt of India employee. Is that true ?

Is it my inability to see large scale despondency or telling that mood is optimistic led you to this conclusion.

I can tell you one thing that I am not a trader. Earlier this forum used to be frequented by members from all walks of life sharing their general enthusiasm for investment.Journalists, software engineers and what not. but less so now as it becomes more popular haunt for tipsters and "buy this sell that" type. It never appealed me.They are the first one to disappear.

Any way see my earlier post for reply

pk

 

[pkjha30]

Pk,

as if to support my claim, some one has written this article , 4 hrs after i put my reasons.

http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/oct/13bcrisis10.htm

so as i said i live in hyd, india. so do not assume that i do not know what is happening in india.

i do not know how many people have posted in this thread, but out of all the people there was only one honest person, who swallowed the bitter pill and admitted when he was not correct amitt29. i am sure , our resilient economy will humble you in future. i will be waiting for acknowledgement.

thanks
Srinivas

Well this is not the first time that members have acknowledged their failings , nor will it be the last one.Prior to this we had one member called Baron who predicted that SENSEX would go below 7500 when it was aiming 12671 , the highest in May 2006 just before crash. Angry posts after posts followed.Language become so hot that several posts had to be removed. I had then pointed out that it is possible in some circumstances including Nuclear war. Few days back somewhat similar reasons were given by someone here.

In fact AMITBE and Saint would certainly recall events/posts following which Baron was banned. I did say that there is a possibility of sensex going to 10000, but 7500 was not possible in a timeframe even then.

Few days after his banning, SENSEX crashed out of blue. Stunned. no further analysis. Posts dried up. Business Line stopped giving any analysis for months. Then one person joined recently. His tone was much humble and respectful, but analysed that sensex would go to 7500. I did contest at that time and recognised the person as BARON. I had welcomed him. now members were willing to give a patient hearing. I started posts in Crash of 2006 and FII activities. It was naive attempt as mood was quite negative and none would believe that it would scale further heights.

It so happened that SENSEX did not go to 7500 and it did climb 21000, though from 17000 , I believed that it is ripe for correction. The higher it goes deeper would be correction. Had it corrected from 17000-18000, it would have stopped at around 12561. But as it went higher I thought it might correct to 10000 or so may be 8900/9500.

But again 7500 is a tough target for sensex. I may be wrong in that case I seek advance apology. Nothing is that much certain.

BTW the BARON is our much respected CZAR. He did say that sensex would jump to 20000 when I persisted and also predicted that it would correct severely, much much before any one had inkling. I respect his opinion very much . AMITBE also acknowledged that he was wrong in opposing BARON a.k.a czar but right in not accepting his languages. We had same position. Czar has learnt and come out very dignified and respected member.

So if I am humbled, I would accept it now itself. But your timeline should be clear. I am sure it would not do so at least in this correction.

Base formation is around 10000.

pk

 

[pkjha30]

Pk,

as if to support my claim, some one has written this article , 4 hrs after i put my reasons.

http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/oct/13bcrisis10.htm
Srinivas

The points raised in the article has been discussed till it has become stale in 2006. I have very little stamina to get into that debate.Suffice to say Quality of forex held by India and those of China are quite different. And time will tell what happens to whom as it is not the only determinant. Like blind experts describing elephant, we are very much prone to one sided views.I like to avoid such general characterizations. Thank you

pk

 

[raosrinivas]

trying to second guess. Answer is somewhere in old posts, if you care to find.

If you do ,let me know.

BTW Hyd is indeed a beautiful city.

pk

yes i will try to look through your old posts to check it. yes Hyd was a beautiful city till 1998. right now it is over crowded. i hope to see the old hyderabad(first 30 yrs of my life) again.

BTW No offence meant, by asking if you are a govt employee. just straight question. my father also retired from central govt service. i just sniff govt employees.

 

[raosrinivas]

I've put many times that we are underestimating or not understanding or in denial of the obvious. there is very interesting comment in this article about the same.

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE49C5QQ20081013

if it were 1997, i remember there was east asian economic crisis, we were completely uneffected. but this time our position is different because we have a lot of Foreign capital in india.

 

[raosrinivas]

I have never seen anything like this before in my life. DOW,NASDAQ,SP&500 all moved up 11%. i still can not believe it. i did see such intervention before in Aug'1998 hongkong govt went into stock market and bought $10B in stocks. so there is no way the western govts are going to let the asset bubble deflate.

there is another law being passed that does not require the banks to mark to market, they could just put a fair value to what they think an asset's value is. i do not want to be judgemental about ability of these actions. if these actions really work out, it would be good. but postponing a problem will not make it to go away.

markets will fix themselves. is there anything President Bush did which did not back fire ?

 

[Czar]

Well this is not the first time that members have acknowledged their failings , nor will it be the last one.Prior to this we had one member called Baron who predicted that SENSEX would go below 7500 when it was aiming 12671 , the highest in May 2006 just before crash. Angry posts after posts followed.Language become so hot that several posts had to be removed. I had then pointed out that it is possible in some circumstances including Nuclear war. Few days back somewhat similar reasons were given by someone here.

In fact AMITBE and Saint would certainly recall events/posts following which Baron was banned. I did say that there is a possibility of sensex going to 10000, but 7500 was not possible in a timeframe even then.

Few days after his banning, SENSEX crashed out of blue. Stunned. no further analysis. Posts dried up. Business Line stopped giving any analysis for months. Then one person joined recently. His tone was much humble and respectful, but analysed that sensex would go to 7500. I did contest at that time and recognised the person as BARON. I had welcomed him. now members were willing to give a patient hearing. I started posts in Crash of 2006 and FII activities. It was naive attempt as mood was quite negative and none would believe that it would scale further heights.

It so happened that SENSEX did not go to 7500 and it did climb 21000, though from 17000 , I believed that it is ripe for correction. The higher it goes deeper would be correction. Had it corrected from 17000-18000, it would have stopped at around 12561. But as it went higher I thought it might correct to 10000 or so may be 8900/9500.

But again 7500 is a tough target for sensex. I may be wrong in that case I seek advance apology. Nothing is that much certain.

BTW the BARON is our much respected CZAR. He did say that sensex would jump to 20000 when I persisted and also predicted that it would correct severely, much much before any one had inkling. I respect his opinion very much . AMITBE also acknowledged that he was wrong in opposing BARON a.k.a czar but right in not accepting his languages. We had same position. Czar has learnt and come out very dignified and respected member.

So if I am humbled, I would accept it now itself. But your timeline should be clear. I am sure it would not do so at least in this correction.

Base formation is around 10000.

pk

Hmm someone missing me Hi Dada... but mind it if the may 2006 low is even broken once we will go in the dark ages... Cheers...

 

[raosrinivas]

Hmm someone missing me Hi Dada... but mind it if the may 2006 low is even broken once we will go in the dark ages... Cheers...

czar, you said what i was thinking all the time. after may'2006. i got into completely defensive mode. somehow i have a feeling that everything after that was stage managed.

 

[pkjha30]

Hmm someone missing me Hi Dada... but mind it if the may 2006 low is even broken once we will go in the dark ages... Cheers...

lol czar. always read all your posts. And yes, if and only if it is broken then we will have target for less than 7500. lot of bloodbath would be there....

pk