Is BSE at 7500 possible within 1 year ?

[Venkat123]

S&P futures are limit down. Blood bath will probably continue on Monday.

 

[shrinivas]

Hi rao,

Do u mean the indian Real estate will see a drastic slowdown for next few years!!!

Dear Lalpar,

With my experince of real estate,yes we are going to see no return/meagre return in real estate in next couple of years.Cities like Mumbai/Delhi will never come down as the rates here are too much but then nobody really ready for selling the property.The suburbs and all the other so called upcoming cities of India will witness sharp correction soon.

Unfortunately in real estate there is no regulatory body.The prices were always inflated by developers/agents.The property prices had gone so high that they were unaffordable by the middleclass,it therefore had to come down.

The current real estate is in a shape where there is no investor and the end user waiting for the rates to come down.

Unfortunately India is a country where even washerman gives his views on the policies framed by the P.M.
We see today everyone talking of downfall,economy going down etc etc..but if you ask the reason,hardlly 5% know it.

In stocks,the exact prices are in front of your eyes.You calculate the profit/loss and buy/sell it at that very time.
But in real estate,your heart really does not accept that the propery price has really gone down..they wait and wait thinking it will come up in 3 months..when the water passes above them,they sell..there is a lot supply and real estate comes crashing down this way..

the other reason could be this-
with growing Indian Inc. story,the salaries were shot up everywhere.We saw that people in call centres etc drawing 40k per month..a husband wife with combined salary of 60-65k took a housing loan and paid a huge amount of their salaries as EMI..
With the interest rates going up and terribel job cuts,they were forced to sell the houses adding to more sorrow......

So we see,negative negative everywhere and people not knowing about it commenting..adding more confusions to existing confusions and rates standing nowhere..If you ask me,I am amazed to see such low rates in mumbai suburbs and Gurgaon Noida(Delhi suburbs)....

Ganeshhity

 

[lalpar]

Dear Lalpar,

With my experince of real estate,yes we are going to see no return/meagre return in real estate in next couple of years.Cities like Mumbai/Delhi will never come down as the rates here are too much but then nobody really ready for selling the property.The suburbs and all the other so called upcoming cities of India will witness sharp correction soon.

Unfortunately in real estate there is no regulatory body.The prices were always inflated by developers/agents.The property prices had gone so high that they were unaffordable by the middleclass,it therefore had to come down.

The current real estate is in a shape where there is no investor and the end user waiting for the rates to come down.

Unfortunately India is a country where even washerman gives his views on the policies framed by the P.M.
We see today everyone talking of downfall,economy going down etc etc..but if you ask the reason,hardlly 5% know it.

In stocks,the exact prices are in front of your eyes.You calculate the profit/loss and buy/sell it at that very time.
But in real estate,your heart really does not accept that the propery price has really gone down..they wait and wait thinking it will come up in 3 months..when the water passes above them,they sell..there is a lot supply and real estate comes crashing down this way..

the other reason could be this-
with growing Indian Inc. story,the salaries were shot up everywhere.We saw that people in call centres etc drawing 40k per month..a husband wife with combined salary of 60-65k took a housing loan and paid a huge amount of their salaries as EMI..
With the interest rates going up and terribel job cuts,they were forced to sell the houses adding to more sorrow......

So we see,negative negative everywhere and people not knowing about it commenting..adding more confusions to existing confusions and rates standing nowhere..If you ask me,I am amazed to see such low rates in mumbai suburbs and Gurgaon Noida(Delhi suburbs)....

Ganeshhity

Thanks Ganesh,,

I am here at Banaglore..Plan to Buy one Leavable home ..Can you tell me what will be the right time to buy!!

 

[raosrinivas]

Ahhhhh...Ashish,my dear friend,no relief this time...Markets coming down mercilessly.....When I read this thread,I recall that the levels of 12000 were never thought of..and today????

ganeshhity

ganesh, i agree . there will be no relief this time. people who have not seen such events before may think there will be a v shaped recovery. i have seen before in east asia , govt putting ad's on tv that we have faced these trying circumstances before we will emerge out of it etc etc evey day just to keep boosting the confidence of people. but still there was 4 yrs of mum between 96-2000. i always tell people to prove with DATA, not with sentiments.

for me i am seeing a replay of what happened before my eyes but in a different country during 97-98. this time it is here at home. but things are working out like a script.

 

[shrinivas]

Thanks Ganesh,,

I am here at Banaglore..Plan to Buy one Leavable home ..Can you tell me what will be the right time to buy!!

Dear Lalpar,
I'm having more than 5 years experience into real estate.But i'm primarily looking for land acquisitions and projects of north.For Bangalore,I can only suggest that this is not the right time..Bangalore has witnessed musrooming of many small developers and consultants unnecessarily..The person who had 5 lacs had bought a flat of 50 lacs thinking he would come out after 3 months without paying the next installment.....The trend all of a sudden has reversed....people are now trying to get out drastically....People were thinking that it would go up in Deepawali,which never happened..I was sure that this market was down this year,but people never accepted it...March-april would see further downside....but i'm not an expert/analyst,so please take advise of an expert...what i've told you here is out of my limited experience.....but i can feel the liquidity crunch very seriously into this segment...the next 8-10 months will definetly witness shut down of some mid/small sized real estate companies and mergers/joint ventures of some great companies.....
wait for 6-7 months,but start looking for properties now....if you get some good deal,no harm to go ahead.....REMEMBER,WHEN PEOPLE ARE GREEDY,YOU SHOULD BE AFRAID...AND WHEN PEOPLE ARE AFRAID,YOU SHOULD BE GREEDY........

I believe,such down markets would not come again for long time to come...

ganeshhity

 

[deepsa52]

S&P futures are limit down. Blood bath will probably continue on Monday.

Bad part is, no one knows when they will close the exchanges for a short while or kill the short trade causing a temporary short squeeze. I have been staying away from the short NIFTYs for a while . Much damage can be done to a portfolio especially if you are trading from overseas and your money gets locked up.

As one can see, introducing restrictions only makes things worse as we saw in the US, the liquidity eventually dries up and market crashes.

BTW Interesting link
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apjqJKKQvfDc&refer=home

 

[jstraju]

To RAO SRINIVAS,

CONGRATULATIONS, We are almost there

 

[jnj333]

I somewhat agree with the real estate views of Mr. Ganeshhity.

 

[jnj333]

ganeshhity,
At this point they should just close the market and go home for a few months.

This is my biggest stock market dream ....no a bigger one would had been closing the markets at 21000 levels for a couple of years.

 

[Venkat123]

"With my experince of real estate,yes we are going to see no return/meagre return in real estate in next couple of years.Cities like Mumbai/Delhi will never come down as the rates here are too much but then nobody really ready for selling the property."

There are no safe assets in this correction. Correction will be cold and painful.