Is BSE at 7500 possible within 1 year ?

[oxusmorouz]

he is worried he might not see 11999 .

Amitt's statement was

I will not see a close below 11999 in my lifetime

This looks more like confidence rather than a wish or a worry to me.

 

[marcus]

anything is possible

 

[oxusmorouz]

anything is possible

Certainly can Marcus, no doubt. But we are talking about a 25% fall (on closing basis) in 17 trading days, which has happened only once in the last 13 years (23 April 04 to 17 may 04, a fall from 1892 to 1388)! Adding slight upside bias to the chart (as is the case in the index almost always in the very long run), the probability of that happening again is like .3%. So unless I get a return of more than 32,333% (3 Rs invested gives 1000Rs), I'd bet against that happening!

 

[rajeshn2007]

two threads:

7500 in 1 year?
four figures?
DIIs net sellers !

conclusion: time to buy

 

[amitt29]

Certainly can Marcus, no doubt. But we are talking about a 25% fall (on closing basis) in 17 trading days, which has happened only once in the last 13 years (23 April 04 to 17 may 04, a fall from 1892 to 1388)! Adding slight upside bias to the chart (as is the case in the index almost always in the very long run), the probability of that happening again is like .3%. So unless I get a return of more than 32,333% (3 Rs invested gives 1000Rs), I'd bet against that happening!

Awsome stats and inference.

Thanks.

 

[renu daga]

nice oxy!!

its a total work from a professional!!

renu

 

[Khokan]

Oxus,
Great work & analysis.
Pal

 

[arnav_rulz]

two threads:

7500 in 1 year?
four figures?
DIIs net sellers !

conclusion: time to buy

Spot ON.

Finally wen more ppl are turning bearish, the nearer the recovery is coming

 

[kkseal]

Certainly can Marcus, no doubt. But we are talking about a 25% fall (on closing basis) in 17 trading days, which has happened only once in the last 13 years (23 April 04 to 17 may 04, a fall from 1892 to 1388)! Adding slight upside bias to the chart (as is the case in the index almost always in the very long run), the probability of that happening again is like .3%. So unless I get a return of more than 32,333% (3 Rs invested gives 1000Rs), I'd bet against that happening!

Missed this one from Oxy.

Fascinating stuff!!

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[raosrinivas]

Spot ON.

Finally wen more ppl are turning bearish, the nearer the recovery is coming

there is no reason why you should not buy. please go ahead and buy anything you want to buy. "Valuations are very attractive", "growth story is intact", "fundamentals are still strong" , "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" , "be a long term investor" i can't remember more. if you are looking for a tip, i can give you tips...