Is nf will hit lower circuit after election result?

[TradeOptions]

Discussions n blah blah apart..how many of u wil b having an open position on MAY 16 ¿

Count me in as well. Not being able to decide how to create the positions, :annoyed: but will surely take the plunge, no matter what.

 

[TradeJoker]

Rajbhai changed his mind, he expecting upper circuit now :lol:

 

[TradeOptions]

Delhi
punjab
haryana
maharashtra
UP
Gujrat
Himachal
uttarakhand
J&K
karnataka
kerala
tamilnadu (especially south of tamilnadu)


these are the state where AAP is doing good .. so there may be a surprise for all of you

ya, AAP could definitely throw in some surprises. I remember just a few months back every one was making fun of them in Delhi Elections also, but they did the unthinkable. Even they themselves would have not imagined that they can do so well in Delhi Elections.

This time I am pretty sure they will win few seats in Delhi and at-least one seat in Punjab, but not sure of any other places currently. If kejriwal defeats Modi in Varansai somehow, then that would be a miracle !

This 16 May will be a date to remember for long. With every passing day, more and more people would either jump in on the long or the short side, let us see how it all ends.

 

[cloudTrader]

ya, AAP could definitely throw in some surprises. I remember just a few months back every one was making fun of them in Delhi Elections also, but they did the unthinkable. Even they themselves would have not imagined that they can do so well in Delhi Elections.

This time I am pretty sure they will win few seats in Delhi and at-least one seat in Punjab, but not sure of any other places currently. If kejriwal defeats Modi in Varansai somehow, then that would be a miracle !

This 16 May will be a date to remember for long. With every passing day, more and more people would either jump in on the long or the short side, let us see how it all ends.

If BJP [individually as a party not NDA] is in the range of 170-180 seats then mkts. will surely get a jerk , but if BJP manages to cross 200 and makes the tally to 210 then that will be strong bullish scenario.

As far as AAP is concerned , the very limited resources they had to fight a national level election whatever they are able to win will be a lesson for Congress.

 

[Vertigo_1985]

ya, AAP could definitely throw in some surprises. I remember just a few months back every one was making fun of them in Delhi Elections also, but they did the unthinkable. Even they themselves would have not imagined that they can do so well in Delhi Elections.

This time I am pretty sure they will win few seats in Delhi and at-least one seat in Punjab, but not sure of any other places currently. If kejriwal defeats Modi in Varansai somehow, then that would be a miracle !

This 16 May will be a date to remember for long. With every passing day, more and more people would either jump in on the long or the short side, let us see how it all ends.

In feb AAP supporters were saying that they will win 300 + seats and get majority :lol:
In march they believed they will get 100 seats and will play a major part in forming government :lol:
Now they believe they will get 50 and we will get a hung parliament and after 1-2 years we will have another election .
My guess is when the results come out their tally will be less than 10 :lol:, waiting eagerly to watch their reactions .

now coming to trading part..
nifty has been in range for past many days (6650 - 6850) as was expected due to decrease of fund inflow nearing big news event, i have still not seen the selling strength that would indicate that bigger players are exiting their longs so im a long as of now.
The exit polls are most likely to show bjp in power so on 13th we may get a big upmove so better thing would be to get long before 13th.
On 16th my opinion is that BJP+ would get seats lower than forecasted in exit
polls and hence im more biased to selling.
If BJP+ gets a majority then investors should remain in.

So get long before 13th, then watch for any weakness on 16th and get short , if BJP+ majority then we have a bull market in hand.

 

[sudoku1]

Rajbhai changed his mind, he expecting upper circuit now :lol:

d unfolding events FORCED rajbhai CHANGE his mind n nt vice versa .

 

[TradeOptions]

In feb AAP supporters were saying that they will win 300 + seats and get majority :lol:
In march they believed they will get 100 seats and will play a major part in forming government :lol:
Now they believe they will get 50 and we will get a hung parliament and after 1-2 years we will have another election .
My guess is when the results come out their tally will be less than 10 :lol:, waiting eagerly to watch their reactions .

now coming to trading part..
nifty has been in range for past many days (6650 - 6850) as was expected due to decrease of fund inflow nearing big news event, i have still not seen the selling strength that would indicate that bigger players are exiting their longs so im a long as of now.
The exit polls are most likely to show bjp in power so on 13th we may get a big upmove so better thing would be to get long before 13th.
On 16th my opinion is that BJP+ would get seats lower than forecasted in exit
polls and hence im more biased to selling.
If BJP+ gets a majority then investors should remain in.

So get long before 13th, then watch for any weakness on 16th and get short , if BJP+ majority then we have a bull market in hand.

I have exactly the same views. Exit Polls on 13 May will make the market to go up because they will show BJP coming back to power. And on 16 May the real results can throw in a surprise, like BJP/NDA falling short of Majority, so the chances of a correction are much higher then.

Now this exit poll scenario has made it even more complicated. Earlier I was eager to buy some OTM puts because of my views that Market will go down after election results. But since this 13 May Bullish Event is coming in between, therefor all my puts can crash badly on that day. Therefor I am not being able to decide, what would be a better strategy for me to adopt if I want to buy the Puts. Should I buy them now and be ready to face the heat on 13 May, or should I buy them on 13 May itself, when there is bound to be some big pressure on the Put prices.

Second idea is to play the markets from both the sides, means buying calls for the 13 May event and then on 13 May, buying the Puts for the 16 May event.

I am really confused. Please share your views about how to adjust our positions for this 13 May up move probability and 16 May down move probability.

Thanks

 

[rkripal]

Delhi
punjab
haryana
maharashtra
UP
Gujrat
Himachal
uttarakhand
J&K
karnataka
kerala
tamilnadu (especially south of tamilnadu)


these are the state where AAP is doing good .. so there may be a surprise for all of you

which brand?

 

[cloudTrader]

Delhi
punjab
haryana
maharashtra
UP
Gujrat
Himachal
uttarakhand
J&K
karnataka
kerala
tamilnadu (especially south of tamilnadu)


these are the state where AAP is doing good .. so there may be a surprise for all of you

If AAP does well , then it is sure that it will be on the cost of Congress , just as what happened in Delhi. Congress was routed by AAP and BJP managed to get good number of seats as well.

Same scenario is taking place in Lok Sabha elections. The real reason of such outcome is that people might not be too much in favour of BJP but they are too much against Congress . So this indirect force is helping BJP to float smoothly on a Wave , which in actual is an Anti-Incumbency Wave. Everybody is looking for a change to take place and what really they are left to choose is NDA.

Congress can be replaced from many places where BJP might not be too powerful, as people are fed up of their governance and that opportunity might be availed by AAP.

 

[Vertigo_1985]

I have exactly the same views. Exit Polls on 13 May will make the market to go up because they will show BJP coming back to power. And on 16 May the real results can throw in a surprise, like BJP/NDA falling short of Majority, so the chances of a correction are much higher then.

Now this exit poll scenario has made it even more complicated. Earlier I was eager to buy some OTM puts because of my views that Market will go down after election results. But since this 13 May Bullish Event is coming in between, therefor all my puts can crash badly on that day. Therefor I am not being able to decide, what would be a better strategy for me to adopt if I want to buy the Puts. Should I buy them now and be ready to face the heat on 13 May, or should I buy them on 13 May itself, when there is bound to be some big pressure on the Put prices.

Second idea is to play the markets from both the sides, means buying calls for the 13 May event and then on 13 May, buying the Puts for the 16 May event.

I am really confused. Please share your views about how to adjust our positions for this 13 May up move probability and 16 May down move probability.

Thanks

I dont trade options so cant tell you exactly how to trade them but i will share my view of how i see it happening most probably ...
till 13th i expect a ranging action, on 13th my expectation is of a bull move then 14th, 15th we may see ranging action with bullish bias, on 16th we may see a correction.
So imo we will have increased prices, decreased volatility and theta approaching 16th, on and after 16th i expect volatility to increase, prices to decrease, If price continue to rise on or after 16th then again we will have increased volatility, maybe now you can tell me how we can use this info .