sorry...i put my view and ajourney path in between.
again try to learn from VVONTERU P40
................................................................
Give it a stop of 150. Today, it gained 6 points. It may have 1 or 2 more updays. When it does, please take your partial profits. This thing is going down. Its a matter of time. And others too. Please book partial profits. When in doubt (at this point in market, I have few doubts), do it partially. This will help U to get partially right or wrong rather than the whole position.
Market Commentary:
What I didn't want to happen, it happened. The markets trend line is broken. We are in for correction. I will hold this view, till it comes back to the trend line or forms another trend. But, I sincerely suspect. Market is going to setup for First Thrust pattern. Meaning, selling follows by more selling. At some point, it will be in oversold condition. Then, there may be couple of days of buying, which will be followed by more selling (by those who missed selling now). Given this view, I suggest avoid buying till we see better conditions in market.
What happened today is very good. Market went down by 400 points. Could find buyers to end up positive. This is really good. The trend is intact. Going in tomorrow, it is one of those days, as a buyer we have an edge. As a buyer, U can say, 'I have a high probability of making money tomorrow'. So, we will have a list for buying. In that, the best will be RCVL (Reliance Communication). I will put up a chart. In the mean time, here is the entry for U to look at.
FYI: Just like the market, RCVL had a reversal too. It tested previous trading range and closed at high. This is really bullish.
The books I have read and with the foundation I have in stock market, there is no term called 'Long Term' in my dictionary. I don't think it is wrong to think in terms of 'Long Term' investment. But, I can't do it. I have tuned my mind not to do it. It is very hard for me to go back. It is very hard for me to see the stock going down beyond my stop point thinking, 'this is for long term'. The stocks I am suggesting are short to intermediate plays.
When U say long term, look for fundamental analysis and research.
1. Personally, I think its good that U lost money. At this point U might be cursing me. Let me explain.
Think in terms of TIME. Today, U have just lost Rs5000 (50 shares * 100 points). How about this. What if U made money now. U rejoice and make a similar GAMBLE (Yes, what U did is Gambling, not Trading, not Investing). This time, U put 200 shares (U think, it easy to make money). U lose 200 points (U think, didn't it go up after losing 100 points. So lets wait. So U end up with 200 points). So, now Ur loss is Rs.40000. Do U think U will let go here. U will not. Because, U tasted success 1st time. It got to work again. So U try again. U lose again.
2. Do not use money that is necessary for livelihood. What I mean to say is, use money that is after U had enough savings. That way, U will not be desperate.
3. If this is going to add solace to U, I too lost money on my first stock. Many lost just like U. U are not alone
Market Analysis:
I know its too late know. U guys already know what to do. Still, for some, who are ever optimistic, some words. PLEASE DON'T OPEN NEW POSITIONS. On existing positions, if U are short to intermediate player, take partial profits/losses (Ya, taking loses is making profits) and trail the stop. About, long term, I don't think I .........
Do not put any more money into the market. U are not ready for it. If U are serious, read a book (there are online links to books on this thread. Use search menu item) first. Do some paper trading on the stocks I suggest. Read Saint thread on TA.
First make paper money. There are paper trading sites like Moneycontrol.com. There is a section for this in this group. Give Urself minimum 6 months. Market will be there for U. And don't forget that U are competing against best minds on the other side. They are there to grab Ur hard earned money. This ain't lottery ticket to free money. If it is, everybody will leave their jobs and start trading.
If U insist in participation in the current market, I will suggest using Funds. Put money on a monthly basis. In that, U will not care if the market goes down or up. This is what I called a long term strategy. Because, U are doing cost averaging. Once U make enough money over here, in this time, U will also be prepared. Then U can start trading.
Existing Position:
I searched for comments from Chidambaram. I could not find the link. Give me the link. I don't believe in news. I believe in price action. Lets see tomorrow what is in storage for U. If U feel optimistic about recovery, I suggest do the following.
1. Take partial losses at the current price. Hey no pain no gain. How much U want to take out its up to U. I suggest 50%, around 20 shares
When market falls, there are no reasons why individual stocks fall. Its the sentiment. Don't reason with the tape. Just follow the price action.
Isn't that hard. U know why? We are brought up in life to reason things. We are human beings with emotions and try to find reasons whether good or bad. I have learnt in the stock market to not find reasons (disregard the financial papers' reasons. They will find anything to write). Thats hard.
1. How good is this company? Is the company going down in business?
3. Market is in oversold condition. That doesn't mean it is not going down Monday. It just means, it has faily good chance it may experience slight rebound. If it does, Ur stock improves (don't wait for break even), get out. Get out on the second day of rebound. To be catious, take partial out on the 1st day of rebound.
4. Finally, understand the main reason why this market is going down. Its because of METALS and OILS. Thats the correction. They had a huge run. Gold, Silver, Steel, Aluminium etc had huge run up globally. Gold is all time high, seen earlier in 1980s. Right now, it is (was a week back) in speculation stage and had get corrected. However, they are not going down. It is just a correction till they come close to 50day EMA.
5. Why did I point 4? because, yours is a steel stock too.
Based on 1 to 5 points, decide on the stock. Biggest thing we learn in stock market is decision making against time. Whether we lose or make money. We make decisions. Those who make better decisions (which may not necessarily make money all the time, but are made on set of principles) win the race.
might be wondering why every stock is setting up for a short. Look at BSE500 or nifty. The market itself is setting up for a short. There are still no indications of stop in downtrend. Answer to the question of adding or holding, it depends on your strategy. If U are a long term investor, I will not suggest U what to do. Because, I don't believe in such thing called long term. If U are not a long term player, why are U still having positions? About adding new positions, no for short to intermediate term, considering the current market conditions.
Looks like Ur confusion is, U did not make a determination of what kind of a player U are (long term, short/intermediate). Its high time U did that before the confusion costs U. If U (or All) want suggestion, go for short to intermediate term. For long term approach, use Funds to that.
Research on the funds. Even in the funds case, there is an exit strategy. On the weekly chart, if 8 Week EMA is crossing down 200 Week EMA, then exit out of the fund (if this happens, market should be in worst condition). Look for a good company holding the funds with long history. Look for funds that give 10 to 30 percent or more consistently year after year. Invest in funds on a monthly basis to leverage cost averaging. Thats what I call a long term approach, where U don't care these market corrections.
Now, coming to the stocks, its very hard to say what is the right thing to do. U will be damned if U do it, U will be damned if U don't do it. For short term approach, in this condition, I resort to taking partial positions of the table. Atleast, U are partial correct or wrong. If further drawdown occurs, take more of the table. For long term, they say, keep it and hope it corrects. I feel the market comes back too. But, I just don't like to hope. We may escape now. But, one (dooms) day, there will be a final trap.
When do U know the market is going to come back? One pulse to check is, people start recommending stocks to buy in this thread . Other would be the market makes a double bottom or has MACD divergence and goes up with considerable volume.
was expecting some more updays. Can't imagine how negative things have turn out. Hopefully, things will be better.
With the expectation of updays, people will try to bail out. If there are no updays sooner or later, the reaction will be more severe. I don't believe in that case right now. About shorting, I do trading in Geogit. They don't offer shorting , keeping the stock more than a day. The only other option is to do options. I am not in options at. U can (should) use this line of thinking in day trading. Because, we want to use the direction of easy path to sail our boat. In market conditions like these, avoid taking long signals when market pulls up in day trading. Rather take shorting signals when the market is set for shorting.
think the more upside dint happen because the natural fall was stopped & the market is being artificially propped by auth. This could I believe make matters worst...
have not read it. My gurus are Elder and Dave Landry. Elder goes through basics. Thats the foundation. Dave lays out the different rooms of the building on the foundation. He gives various patterns that are realistic. For day trading, use Marcel Link's book - High Probability Trading.
I see that U have started a new thread on day trading. No matter which book U go, no body will layout the methodology and money management techniques (I think Elder talks about a little bit, different from mine though). What I gave U is the one I followed. It is practical and U will not find it anywhere in any book.
For day trading, U don't need TA. U don't have time for TA. What U need is identifying sleek entry and exit points. U only need EMAs and MACD (again based on EMAs). Don't see double bottom, trending lines, divergence etc etc in a daily chart. They don't work. They work on lot of data. More data, more effective these indicators and Ur analysis. In a day, there is too less data for them to work.
That is the issue with these indicators. Beginners struggle with them. They look at all these indicators and consider them as toys or candies. They don't know what to do with them. They don't understand that the complexity is not with the indicator but, in its application. U got to know where and when to use them. More importantly, be consistent with their use, in getting Ur signals to trade. When a signal is not given for a day, don't go for a new indicator to get signal.
Yes. U are right. But, most of them struggle to make money in day trading. Leave alone getting greedy. For my friend with whom I developed this methodology, he has problem with greed. Our methodology worked fine. But, he would never get happy with the money he was making. Lets say he makes Rs5000 on a day, he wouldn't quit on that day. He would continue to trade and end up with Rs500 at the end of the day.
He had also problem with position sizing. They were giving unrealistic losses when stops get hit. And sometimes he moved the stops hoping the stock would come back. The biggest problem he had was that he was applying EOD TA to day trading. He would confused with both. The reason I point these is, these are common issues U come across in day trading.
I don't know when U started day trading. If U are starting, my advise is to reduce position size. Smaller position eliminates fear and provides objective thinking. U will stop thinking about money and think what is right thing to do. Money should flow as an after thought. Slowly, U will see things clearly and develop Ur own method for trading (lets say fine tuning existing method). Thats what I call Ur edge. Till then, do it small. So, that Ur loses are minimal.
Yes. Look for only shorting while the market is in downtrend. Avoid long signals as they fetch less reward versus high risk. But, follow my methodology of crossover. That way, when the market is pulling up (short covering), U will not get shorting signal. When the 8 min ema crosses down 50min ema, then short. Cover when 8 crosses up over 50. Please read my methodology in my thread. Search the thread on day trading.
COMMENTS FROM OILMAN5...
GEM OF A VIEW..I CAN GIVE MY MONEY ..TO PLAY IN YOUR HAND
VVONTERU...YES I REALLY MEAN IT
....................
again try to learn from VVONTERU P40
................................................................
Give it a stop of 150. Today, it gained 6 points. It may have 1 or 2 more updays. When it does, please take your partial profits. This thing is going down. Its a matter of time. And others too. Please book partial profits. When in doubt (at this point in market, I have few doubts), do it partially. This will help U to get partially right or wrong rather than the whole position.
Market Commentary:
What I didn't want to happen, it happened. The markets trend line is broken. We are in for correction. I will hold this view, till it comes back to the trend line or forms another trend. But, I sincerely suspect. Market is going to setup for First Thrust pattern. Meaning, selling follows by more selling. At some point, it will be in oversold condition. Then, there may be couple of days of buying, which will be followed by more selling (by those who missed selling now). Given this view, I suggest avoid buying till we see better conditions in market.
What happened today is very good. Market went down by 400 points. Could find buyers to end up positive. This is really good. The trend is intact. Going in tomorrow, it is one of those days, as a buyer we have an edge. As a buyer, U can say, 'I have a high probability of making money tomorrow'. So, we will have a list for buying. In that, the best will be RCVL (Reliance Communication). I will put up a chart. In the mean time, here is the entry for U to look at.
FYI: Just like the market, RCVL had a reversal too. It tested previous trading range and closed at high. This is really bullish.
The books I have read and with the foundation I have in stock market, there is no term called 'Long Term' in my dictionary. I don't think it is wrong to think in terms of 'Long Term' investment. But, I can't do it. I have tuned my mind not to do it. It is very hard for me to go back. It is very hard for me to see the stock going down beyond my stop point thinking, 'this is for long term'. The stocks I am suggesting are short to intermediate plays.
When U say long term, look for fundamental analysis and research.
1. Personally, I think its good that U lost money. At this point U might be cursing me. Let me explain.
Think in terms of TIME. Today, U have just lost Rs5000 (50 shares * 100 points). How about this. What if U made money now. U rejoice and make a similar GAMBLE (Yes, what U did is Gambling, not Trading, not Investing). This time, U put 200 shares (U think, it easy to make money). U lose 200 points (U think, didn't it go up after losing 100 points. So lets wait. So U end up with 200 points). So, now Ur loss is Rs.40000. Do U think U will let go here. U will not. Because, U tasted success 1st time. It got to work again. So U try again. U lose again.
2. Do not use money that is necessary for livelihood. What I mean to say is, use money that is after U had enough savings. That way, U will not be desperate.
3. If this is going to add solace to U, I too lost money on my first stock. Many lost just like U. U are not alone
Market Analysis:
I know its too late know. U guys already know what to do. Still, for some, who are ever optimistic, some words. PLEASE DON'T OPEN NEW POSITIONS. On existing positions, if U are short to intermediate player, take partial profits/losses (Ya, taking loses is making profits) and trail the stop. About, long term, I don't think I .........
Do not put any more money into the market. U are not ready for it. If U are serious, read a book (there are online links to books on this thread. Use search menu item) first. Do some paper trading on the stocks I suggest. Read Saint thread on TA.
First make paper money. There are paper trading sites like Moneycontrol.com. There is a section for this in this group. Give Urself minimum 6 months. Market will be there for U. And don't forget that U are competing against best minds on the other side. They are there to grab Ur hard earned money. This ain't lottery ticket to free money. If it is, everybody will leave their jobs and start trading.
If U insist in participation in the current market, I will suggest using Funds. Put money on a monthly basis. In that, U will not care if the market goes down or up. This is what I called a long term strategy. Because, U are doing cost averaging. Once U make enough money over here, in this time, U will also be prepared. Then U can start trading.
Existing Position:
I searched for comments from Chidambaram. I could not find the link. Give me the link. I don't believe in news. I believe in price action. Lets see tomorrow what is in storage for U. If U feel optimistic about recovery, I suggest do the following.
1. Take partial losses at the current price. Hey no pain no gain. How much U want to take out its up to U. I suggest 50%, around 20 shares
When market falls, there are no reasons why individual stocks fall. Its the sentiment. Don't reason with the tape. Just follow the price action.
Isn't that hard. U know why? We are brought up in life to reason things. We are human beings with emotions and try to find reasons whether good or bad. I have learnt in the stock market to not find reasons (disregard the financial papers' reasons. They will find anything to write). Thats hard.
1. How good is this company? Is the company going down in business?
3. Market is in oversold condition. That doesn't mean it is not going down Monday. It just means, it has faily good chance it may experience slight rebound. If it does, Ur stock improves (don't wait for break even), get out. Get out on the second day of rebound. To be catious, take partial out on the 1st day of rebound.
4. Finally, understand the main reason why this market is going down. Its because of METALS and OILS. Thats the correction. They had a huge run. Gold, Silver, Steel, Aluminium etc had huge run up globally. Gold is all time high, seen earlier in 1980s. Right now, it is (was a week back) in speculation stage and had get corrected. However, they are not going down. It is just a correction till they come close to 50day EMA.
5. Why did I point 4? because, yours is a steel stock too.
Based on 1 to 5 points, decide on the stock. Biggest thing we learn in stock market is decision making against time. Whether we lose or make money. We make decisions. Those who make better decisions (which may not necessarily make money all the time, but are made on set of principles) win the race.
might be wondering why every stock is setting up for a short. Look at BSE500 or nifty. The market itself is setting up for a short. There are still no indications of stop in downtrend. Answer to the question of adding or holding, it depends on your strategy. If U are a long term investor, I will not suggest U what to do. Because, I don't believe in such thing called long term. If U are not a long term player, why are U still having positions? About adding new positions, no for short to intermediate term, considering the current market conditions.
Looks like Ur confusion is, U did not make a determination of what kind of a player U are (long term, short/intermediate). Its high time U did that before the confusion costs U. If U (or All) want suggestion, go for short to intermediate term. For long term approach, use Funds to that.
Research on the funds. Even in the funds case, there is an exit strategy. On the weekly chart, if 8 Week EMA is crossing down 200 Week EMA, then exit out of the fund (if this happens, market should be in worst condition). Look for a good company holding the funds with long history. Look for funds that give 10 to 30 percent or more consistently year after year. Invest in funds on a monthly basis to leverage cost averaging. Thats what I call a long term approach, where U don't care these market corrections.
Now, coming to the stocks, its very hard to say what is the right thing to do. U will be damned if U do it, U will be damned if U don't do it. For short term approach, in this condition, I resort to taking partial positions of the table. Atleast, U are partial correct or wrong. If further drawdown occurs, take more of the table. For long term, they say, keep it and hope it corrects. I feel the market comes back too. But, I just don't like to hope. We may escape now. But, one (dooms) day, there will be a final trap.
When do U know the market is going to come back? One pulse to check is, people start recommending stocks to buy in this thread . Other would be the market makes a double bottom or has MACD divergence and goes up with considerable volume.
was expecting some more updays. Can't imagine how negative things have turn out. Hopefully, things will be better.
With the expectation of updays, people will try to bail out. If there are no updays sooner or later, the reaction will be more severe. I don't believe in that case right now. About shorting, I do trading in Geogit. They don't offer shorting , keeping the stock more than a day. The only other option is to do options. I am not in options at. U can (should) use this line of thinking in day trading. Because, we want to use the direction of easy path to sail our boat. In market conditions like these, avoid taking long signals when market pulls up in day trading. Rather take shorting signals when the market is set for shorting.
think the more upside dint happen because the natural fall was stopped & the market is being artificially propped by auth. This could I believe make matters worst...
have not read it. My gurus are Elder and Dave Landry. Elder goes through basics. Thats the foundation. Dave lays out the different rooms of the building on the foundation. He gives various patterns that are realistic. For day trading, use Marcel Link's book - High Probability Trading.
I see that U have started a new thread on day trading. No matter which book U go, no body will layout the methodology and money management techniques (I think Elder talks about a little bit, different from mine though). What I gave U is the one I followed. It is practical and U will not find it anywhere in any book.
For day trading, U don't need TA. U don't have time for TA. What U need is identifying sleek entry and exit points. U only need EMAs and MACD (again based on EMAs). Don't see double bottom, trending lines, divergence etc etc in a daily chart. They don't work. They work on lot of data. More data, more effective these indicators and Ur analysis. In a day, there is too less data for them to work.
That is the issue with these indicators. Beginners struggle with them. They look at all these indicators and consider them as toys or candies. They don't know what to do with them. They don't understand that the complexity is not with the indicator but, in its application. U got to know where and when to use them. More importantly, be consistent with their use, in getting Ur signals to trade. When a signal is not given for a day, don't go for a new indicator to get signal.
Yes. U are right. But, most of them struggle to make money in day trading. Leave alone getting greedy. For my friend with whom I developed this methodology, he has problem with greed. Our methodology worked fine. But, he would never get happy with the money he was making. Lets say he makes Rs5000 on a day, he wouldn't quit on that day. He would continue to trade and end up with Rs500 at the end of the day.
He had also problem with position sizing. They were giving unrealistic losses when stops get hit. And sometimes he moved the stops hoping the stock would come back. The biggest problem he had was that he was applying EOD TA to day trading. He would confused with both. The reason I point these is, these are common issues U come across in day trading.
I don't know when U started day trading. If U are starting, my advise is to reduce position size. Smaller position eliminates fear and provides objective thinking. U will stop thinking about money and think what is right thing to do. Money should flow as an after thought. Slowly, U will see things clearly and develop Ur own method for trading (lets say fine tuning existing method). Thats what I call Ur edge. Till then, do it small. So, that Ur loses are minimal.
Yes. Look for only shorting while the market is in downtrend. Avoid long signals as they fetch less reward versus high risk. But, follow my methodology of crossover. That way, when the market is pulling up (short covering), U will not get shorting signal. When the 8 min ema crosses down 50min ema, then short. Cover when 8 crosses up over 50. Please read my methodology in my thread. Search the thread on day trading.
COMMENTS FROM OILMAN5...
GEM OF A VIEW..I CAN GIVE MY MONEY ..TO PLAY IN YOUR HAND
VVONTERU...YES I REALLY MEAN IT
....................