Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[nitingosavi]

these two stocks I would try to trade in coming days..
expecting some BIG moves...

Bankindia Daily chart.
1. may be bottoming for at least short term.
2. far away from EMAs. generally price tends towards EMAs either by consolidation (waiting for averages) or by jumping towards them.
3. slight positive divergence in RSI(15). MACD. SMI.
4. already tried to break current channel on upside.. could not sustain testing channel support again.
5. volume is very good since last few days... many times observed near bottom reversals.
6. a scope(unclear) of rupee appreciation against USD may add a flavour.
7.I guess just push above todays high will be helpful to enter if sustained.

DLF Daily chart.
1. looks like a short term double bottom to me.
2. a trend line break and retest(?)
3. Volume good enough.
4. RSI MACD in positive territory.+ positive divergence.
5. I guess just push above todays high will be helpful to enter if sustained.

Again its my own study... and it can be 100% wrong.

 

[nitingosavi]

Nitin - USDINR....Chart

Now USD INR is moving within the band and nifty is dancing alongwith the USDINR tune..

Near the points, if we see our analysis, our trade, s/l will be small and target will be big. But, we should have patience for the trade setup.

I never use to trade for small points, this is my way of trading. It differs traders to trader.

Your view is welcome.

@ RISH

yes keeping an eye on USDINR chart will be an additional tool for us while trying to find trades in other stocks.

 

[nitingosavi]

still there is too much time to end month..

but primary guess relying on monthly channel we may test 8600-9000 again if supports held and resistances crossed.

Again it is trying to catch bottom and.......to big to think for me... as I am a shorttt term trader.

CNX NIFTY spot monthly

cnx nifty... some other lines.. earlier res may become valuable support .( you may call it as.. plotting trend lines with a bias

CNX NIFTY spot weekly

 

[amitrandive]

Monthly Chart of CNX Nifty (Spot)

Posted on AnilJi's thread.

 

[manojborle]

Posted on AnilJi's thread.

Amit how the boxes drawn help in your trading ?
What logic you are using in drawing these boxes ?

Thanks

 

[amitrandive]

Amit how the boxes drawn help in your trading ?
What logic you are using in drawing these boxes ?

Thanks

Manoj

I generally draw boxes for support and resistance on a higher time frame like Monthly and Weekly.

Most of the times they form significant zones on a daily level.

See the same chart on a Daily Time frame.

Daily chart of Spot Nifty

 

[amitrandive]

Monthly Chart of Relinfra

Those who have seen 2000+ levels should not expect a miracle that it may bounce again from the lowest levels to those high levels again.

Many investors/traders do this mistake of setting the upper targets in buy and hold investing.

A good business is always a good buy at the lower levels/valuations.But an informed investor must always analyse what went wrong for the drastic price reduction.

Always good to buy strong stocks on dips ,but not wise to catch falling knives and especially non-performing businesses.

As a guide an investor can take help of fundamentals to understand what is wrong with the business.It is almost impossible to keep up manipulating the balance sheets for a long time.

Posted in Anilji's thread.

 

[jagankris]

Amit how the boxes drawn help in your trading ?
What logic you are using in drawing these boxes ?

Thanks

It is the same supply/demand zones you use in your trading.

 

[pegasus70]

Potential Breakout Candidate

Aditya Birla Nuvo
BSE: 500303 | NSE: ABIRLANUVO | ISIN: INE069A01017 | SECTOR: TEXTILES - MANMADE

Current CMP:1070
Action:Buy
Stop Loss:1030
Probable Targets: 1160,1200
52 Week High:1291
52 Week Low:930.15

Reasons for trade:Above 20 day Moving average,Rising Volumes,Price forming Higher Low.

Hey ...This must hit the upper bollinger band and retreat. A nice shorting opportunity as it appears to me. The reason? ...It's above the 20 MA sure ..but the MA is slopping downwards...Yeah never forget the slope..it speaks volumes....Also there is this apparent bollinger squeeze..IDK if the 20 MA is above the 50 MA and if the RSI has bounced off it's range lows. Only a closing above upper bollinger with mammoth volumes might make a strong case for buying. Hm ...

 

[amitrandive]

Hey ...This must hit the upper bollinger band and retreat. A nice shorting opportunity as it appears to me. The reason? ...It's above the 20 MA sure ..but the MA is slopping downwards...Yeah never forget the slope..it speaks volumes....Also there is this apparent bollinger squeeze..IDK if the 20 MA is above the 50 MA and if the RSI has bounced off it's range lows. Only a closing above upper bollinger with mammoth volumes might make a strong case for buying. Hm ...

Thanks for comments ,
This post was from one year back ,check the latest charts.

Weekly chart of AdityaBirla