Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[Rish]

Crude and cairn...

Crude is showing like double bottom on daily.. with some good diversions on indicators...

cairn.. I am not sure but sensing bottom is near with a dip or without..

Crude Hourly live.. 2970-3000 looks like hurdle abv 2972/73 a rally looks possible

Cairn Daily. fut.

both look bullish (short term) with some confirmation..... with or without some dips.

Cairn India Last Thursday hit the saturation level on 6th Time...

Still, not sure bullish.

I feel before any upmove, correction may happen.

The above message is personal view and not a trading call.

Crude i feel today closing is more important for further trend.

Again, crude not resumed double bottom.

 

[nitingosavi]

Cairn India Last Thursday hit the saturation level on 6th Time...

Still, not sure bullish.

I feel before any upmove, correction may happen.

The above message is personal view and not a trading call.

Crude i feel today closing is more important for further trend.

Again, crude not resumed double bottom.

@rish
yes.. true...

I am referring this double bottom like situation.. on daily chart (I posted hrly chart to post possible intra breakout level).. marked with red circles.
may be I am wrong with Cairn.. as I am very directly relating it with crude..

the possibilities of correction you mentioned .. I just wrote in diff words.. "with or without dip"... My bias is Bullish ..just trying to find perfect point to enter!

Crude daily..

 

[monkeybusiness]

Daily Chart of Reliance

That is why I don't trade Reliance.It is completely inside the box.:rofl:
(This is not a trading call)

Amitji,

when support & resistance so well defined, isn't is good to trade Reliance when it touches as of above.

 

[amitrandive]

Amitji,

when support & resistance so well defined, isn't is good to trade Reliance when it touches as of above.

Please forgive my bias,but I don't trade any stocks of Reliance group.
The entire pack has been an underperformer since last 5 years.

Just wanted to show that the higher timeframe always gives a different perspective

 

[vikas2131]

I have been watching this thread for quite some time .. Good work..

I feel we are already in bear market... we just dnt know it yet. Normally during bull markets, there are declines to previous support levels and during bear markets there are rallies to resistance.

Notice that at the peaks of previous bull markets, the initial correction looked much like all previous corrections during the bullish advance. The problem is that many failed to recognize, until far too late, the technical trend had changed for the worse.

The following three comparative charts support his view. Notice that following each initial decline there was a subsequent "suckers rally" that failed. It was the last opportunity to exit the market before the "crash" occurred.

1987

2000

2007

Is this the beginning of a "market crash?" Maybe? Honestly, no one knows for sure because crashes are fueled by a panic-driven selling exodus from the markets generally due to some sort of financial shock.So i would be very very careful moving forward.

 

[amitrandive]

What Should A Trader Do In A Sideways Market ?

Markets always go through trending and sideways phases. A sideways phase gives rise to trending phase and after trending phase we always get a sideways phase. This is very much predictable in any market, any timeframe.

If a trader is trading a trend following trading method trading Index Futures such as Nifty Futures , the sideways phase will give many false starts, whipsaws giving him losses.Trend following methods always make money during the trends and loose money in sideways markets. So if one is following a trend following method for all phases, he may make money overall if the length/ range of sideways phase is smaller than trending phase....but if the sideways phase lasts long...the losses will mount. I have seen some average crossover trading methods giving 8-10 consecutive loosing trades in last 8-10 days when market is sideways.

How does one handle this situation ? There are ways to find out ( though a bit after the phase starts ) that we are in sideways market. Once that is identified, either don't trade a sideways phase with trend following method or if you are trading thinking that the market has come out of sideways phase, trade small so that till market really starts trending your losses are kept minimum due to false starts....and when trend starts again, you can start making money with your methods.....not trading in choppy sideways markets which are unpredictable is very important trading decision.

Last few days being sideways many traders asked how to handle such a phase as they are loosing and getting whipped ....and remember that after sideways phase, a trending phase definately comes.....so be in good shape to trade that trending phase which will follow.

Smart_trade

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[amitrandive]

Traders make money in trending phase and give it back in the sideways phase....sometimes they loose more in sideways phase. Every trader has to understand how he is going to negotiate the sideways phase so that he makes some money in it or at least preserve what he has made in a trend and again ride the trend when the market starts trending again...

How do we know that we are in sideways markets ? The charts will indicate that. I have taken an example of Nifty Futures 5 min chart.....we had a nice downtrend till point A , then we had an upmove upto point B.....the first indication of sideways market came when at point C market was unable to take out point B...then D,E,F,G all sideways moves till we get a breakdown of the range.....

Traders handle sideways phase in different ways depending on what he is comfortable with ...various ways of handling sideways phase are as under :

1) If you are a range trader, trade the extremes of sideways range....buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top....

2) Decrease your volumes in sideways phase and increase back to normal volumes when trend starts.

3) Trade on sideways market indicators, oscillators, Bollinger bands extremes etc

4) Totally stay away in sideways phase and trade only trending phases....


So in this range either trade the extremes or just stay out and dont loose your capital and energy trading sideways markets......get on to trends when they start again.....

Smart_trade

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[vikas2131]

i posted few charts yesterday in this thread... dnt know why mod has nt approved the post... Nonetheless i feel we are likely in bear market... i can post few charts to suppport my claim if everyone is fine

 

[amitrandive]

i posted few charts yesterday in this thread... dnt know why mod has nt approved the post... Nonetheless i feel we are likely in bear market... i can post few charts to suppport my claim if everyone is fine

Please do not post targets,stop loss,buy/hold/sell recommendations.

No equity advice.

That is the reason those posts must have got deleted.

Read forum rules before posting.

Also I think as per rules, newcomers posts are moderated.

 

[amitrandive]

Spot Nifty

Daily Chart of Spot Nifty

Weekly Trendlines/Support/Resistance=Blue Colour
Daily Trendlines/Support/Resistance=Yellow Colour

Spot Nifty resisting 20 EMA on the Daily chart.