banknifty weekly..
trying to guess the possibilities as something big may happen tomorrow after tonight's FED.
there is a 30% chance (as many more confirmations needed) that this fall is just a correction..
I am trying to study possible reasons. for both scenarios.
bullish
1. on weekly chart banknifty corrected 38.2% of the major rally 8392 to 20907 and for now we can say bouncing.
2.It has taken support at earlier B/O zone or we can say current demand zone (drawn green box).
3. It has taken support at the rising channel bottom line (drawn red) and taken support at falling channel bottom line (drawn thick golden-- it has just 2 touch points on downside
)
4. EMA 34 is yet above EMA 55.
5. a small rise and close tomorrow can easily cross EMA5 currently at 17092 (generally gives another 1-3 candles towards the direction of cross over)
6. there is no major visual negative diversion on RSI before this fall.
7. there is no major visual negative diversion on MACD before this fall.
8. Rupee may appreciate against USD.
9. looks like taken support near @ 100 MA currently at 15690 (thick Blue).
10. entered Bollinger band again from below.
for any chance of success of bullish probability it must cross current supply zone 17135-17474 (with volume) then 50% level of current fall 18334. then current falling channel top.
bearish
1.already in falling channel.
2. broken supportive trend line(s).
3. already trading below resent supply zone..
4. bulls have many hurdles to cross and bears have just 1.. recent swing low!!.
5.macd (12,26,9) and its signal line already below zero line.( a sharp rally may cause zero line reject).
so if this scenario primarily to continue.. Banknifty should not cross current supply zone. and/or 38.2% retracement level of current fall(17727). a possible fall may get more strength if it consolidates below those levels and recent low.
these are (weekly) are not the charts I trade as I am a short-very short term trader.. just tried to analyse. my bias is bullish until recent swing low breaks.
