Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[Somatung]

@Amitrandive

Would you mind to post your experience also here in this section of the forum http://www.traderji.com/tech-corner/, as this would be a great help for others when it comes to any topic of "Internet". Not all do read this thread, so this information will get lost.

I can do it, but as your thread did come up with it, you may do it as we also helped you a few times when you had questions about any problem you faced with your Internet and OS.

Would appreciate it in case your time permits.

Take care / Dan

 

[amitrandive]

@Amitrandive

Would you mind to post your experience also here in this section of the forum http://www.traderji.com/tech-corner/, as this would be a great help for others when it comes to any topic of "Internet". Not all do read this thread, so this information will get lost.

I can do it, but as your thread did come up with it, you may do it as we also helped you a few times when you had questions about any problem you faced with your Internet and OS.

Would appreciate it in case your time permits.

Take care / Dan

Sure Dan , have shared my experience here .

http://www.traderji.com/tech-corner/99954-how-print-entire-thread-along-images.html#post1105727

 

[amitrandive]

TO ADD or NOT TO ADD

One of the questions which bother traders whether day traders or swing traders is whether they should add to the winning positions or not.The answer is not simple because adding the positions when the market is going in our favour it a good trading practice but it has its own trade-offs. Let us see what are the advantages and disadvantages :

1) Advantages : 1) The main advantage is when we get a strong trend, and we add to our positions, the positions become large without any increase in risk as we add in such a way that the total position after adds are not jeopardised.So in a strong trend the adds can give profits of 5-10 R from 3-4 R price move.

2) Another advantage is as we are adding in the profitable position along with the trend, there is less tendency/temptations of booking profits and taking positions against the ongoing trend.

2) Disadvantages : The main disadvantage is the trader looses small profits.Most of the times markets are sideways and choppy and small profits which has accumalated will vanish if we take adds.

So how does a trader resolve the above dilema ? This issue is more bothersome for daytraders. Swing traders generally get good directional trend moves but daytraders will always feel bad if the small profit accumalated goes away due to add and the trade becomes a breakeven or small profit trade. The solution lies in achieving a balance . I have found that daytraders can take atleast 1 add in sideways/weak trending markets but the moment they sense that the day could be a strong trend day, they must add aggressively and hold till the end as the statistics indicates that the strong trend days close at /near the bottom/top of the day. On strong trend days holding till the end is much profitable than buy/sell during the day In grinding up/down and choppy markets one should avoid adds.

But for taking adds, one should be prepared to fergo some small profits. Adds in swing trading are very profitable when we get a large trend and we have initial position plus 3-4 adds. Adds could be in 1:1:0.5:0.25:0.25 position so that the add quantity is reduced as we go further in the trend.

Traders can practice by starting with one add on a trend day and holding till the end, then increase add positions to 2 and so on...even one add straight-a-way doubles the profits.

Smart_trade

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[amitrandive]

 

[amitrandive]

Dear mindgames,

I when started i mostly traded on daily charts. Results are ok but not on expectations. So while studying what happening, came to conclusion, the charts which in weekly uptrend have given me more returns than downtrend ones.

I maintained my list of stocks which i visit daily they roughly are around 350 or so. I have a feel of them. They are diversified too. So looking at weekly and daily i know where i need to spot on.

My only investing/trading wisdom which i learned is, there is always a accumulation or distribution for the trade to be in profit.Or trend to materialise. There cannot be any trend until accumulation occurs. What are these patterns. They can be any wedges/triangles/double bottom/ cup-handle etc...So i know which stock on my list going on in which phase. Now there are only two ways to trade out it. First on breaking these zones or on retesting of breakout levels, and second ones is trading on lower channel boundaries with 'expectation' of breakout.

I maintain 7-8% Stoploss on my trades and didnt risk more than 3-4% of my capital on any single trade.

I am fan of Schabacker,edwards-maggee books. I try to read these many times, everytime i learned new thing in it.I also read martin pring books. Generally i observed old time classic books have more knowledge than newer ones. Newer ones are just indicator obsessed ones. I also studied Wyckoff, darvas and like minded ones. So what i am today is all a mix of all these, i dont have pinpoint source to tell you from where i follow. Its like learning from own mistakes and correcting the same.

My advice/suggestion is follow method which you are comfortable with and not what others are doing it. Like in this forum or in many forums all threads mostly speak on Intraday to few days strategies. But i learned this badly, and want to tell you, money is made on trading from holding stocks till weeks. Patience is the key. This is my style, if you are comfortable with Short term trading , so be it. There is no right/wrong way in market, everybody is here for money, those who are here for entertainment will vanish and blame markets.

Fantastic reply from Anil Sir on trading style,stock watch-list and overall method of trading.

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[amitrandive]

Bears and Bulls
http://traderskillset.com/how-running-corrections-born/

Here is the story behind the pattern applied in a bull trend. An example of a running flat correction that tells us a story about the decisions made on the market A real-life example of a flat correction. See the detailed explanation what happens at points 1 through 5 and how this higher high – higher low pattern emerge

The market reaches to a target zone or resistance at area 1. We see it when some bulls close their positions and aggressive bears open shorts, which temporarily overwhelms the new buyers and creates a visible bearish signal bar. The drop doesn’t get far before buyers feel the lower prices are a bargain, and they start to buy at area 2.

Some of them jump on board for a scalp to a new high while others sit in for a longer journey. A support level emerges. At area 3 the scalper bulls start to close at the high and here double top traders see the opportunity against the trend. Other bears see a better probability selling into a second bearish leg hoping for a change in trend (they have a better chance actually). Some bulls also get cold Sellers dominance at the wave B high of the running flatfeet seeing the previous bear attempt (wave A) and happily take the profit at the previous high. Resistance gets confirmed. And here comes the tricky part.

Double top or range traders would like to close their scalps at area 4 where we previously saw the support. Buyers would like to add to their longs at the same spot and that is the minimum target for the early bears also. But nope. The second leg down, namely wave C, runs out of steam and aggressive bulls buy early at area 5. These aggressors are confident and strong players. They know the situation. They understand the larger picture, they know that they have 70% chance of the continuation of the trend, and they don’t need to try to save money by trying to buy a bit lower. That’s how the market traps the double top sellers, early bears and traps out the classic add-on buyers.

This situation sets up an imbalance that persists quite long after the pattern has developed. conclusion: sellers strength < buyers strength A bullish running correction with a higher low expresses the buyers confidence. The opposite is also true: A bearish running correction with a lower peak signifies selling confidence.

 

[nitingosavi]

just for sake of intra trade...
BN fut shows some weakness unless crosses 16507-16600 zone.. sustaining below 16437 may confirm weakness else a possible range bound day.

banknifty fut live hrly

waiting for safe(?) entry

 

[nitingosavi]

watch these stocks.. just for today..

trying to derive a method.. for intraday purpose

the method follows...
1)now the trigger is todays open. if stock is trading abv open rgt now shorting below days open may give a good trade. Small trade.

2)if the stock is trading below days open.. buy abv open s/l days low.

this is a not yet fully tested... but works...With risk!!
details.. I will post in a week.

I am using it for futures.

Ticker Date/Time close range High range Low rsi2 rsi2llv4
ACC 18-09-2015 1375.20 1408.00 1365.00 32.8743 32.8743
ADANIENT 18-09-2015 77.95 79.40 70.00 83.5569 51.0104
ADANIPOWER 18-09-2015 23.60 24.40 22.15 82.0881 55.8257
ALBK 18-09-2015 76.65 79.35 75.15 76.5689 33.7737
AMTEKAUTO 18-09-2015 48.35 58.65 41.95 38.2875 38.2875
ASIANPAINT 18-09-2015 841.05 849.90 818.10 76.7191 38.6233
BIOCON 18-09-2015 440.85 453.75 435.35 23.0763 23.0763
BPCL 18-09-2015 869.55 892.40 853.05 57.5995 35.8882
CAIRN 18-09-2015 143.50 149.00 139.80 22.1372 18.1111
CENTURYTEX 18-09-2015 530.00 544.80 508.50 78.2578 40.0648
CIPLA 18-09-2015 652.00 669.00 647.05 19.1120 19.1120
DLF 18-09-2015 126.35 131.00 121.15 81.4261 32.5863
DRREDDY 18-09-2015 4005.85 4050.00 3977.00 36.9965 36.9965
EXIDEIND 18-09-2015 147.60 151.70 146.35 15.5697 15.5697
GLENMARK 18-09-2015 1016.45 1040.05 1001.10 44.7581 44.7581
GMRINFRA 18-09-2015 12.50 12.90 12.05 80.0450 43.8930
GRASIM 18-09-2015 3496.90 3549.00 3445.25 85.4307 33.7772
HINDALCO 18-09-2015 75.90 79.15 75.25 30.9552 30.9552
HINDZINC 18-09-2015 135.85 138.05 128.00 69.8399 33.1086
JINDALSTEL 18-09-2015 64.00 65.60 60.70 70.5727 42.2707
JPPOWER 18-09-2015 6.10 6.20 5.85 87.6339 49.7597
JSWENERGY 18-09-2015 82.85 86.00 75.30 46.3711 46.3711
NMDC 18-09-2015 103.10 105.20 100.05 71.5365 27.9320
RCOM 18-09-2015 66.40 67.50 64.50 74.0210 47.1866
SIEMENS 18-09-2015 1296.75 1325.00 1272.20 78.3236 58.8015
STAR 18-09-2015 1151.65 1196.60 1098.60 57.1004 49.3931
SUNTV 18-09-2015 348.05 355.90 338.25 74.7888 20.9301
SYNDIBANK 18-09-2015 81.30 84.00 77.85 86.4418 56.8653
TATACOMM 18-09-2015 396.05 406.40 388.00 62.6687 23.6766
TCS 18-09-2015 2551.25 2586.00 2536.00 68.1790 31.0301
ULTRACEMCO 18-09-2015 2937.95 3018.95 2902.90 57.6963 24.0868
UNITECH 18-09-2015 6.10 6.20 5.90 80.5243 28.3253
VEDL 18-09-2015 98.95 101.85 96.15 57.4075 33.1812

posting for study purpose.. not suggesting any trade... and expecting feed back if u found it working

for example..
relinfra fut just @ 1.29 PM traded a tick below todays open... s/l is days high.

 

[timepass]

watch these stocks.. just for today..

trying to derive a method.. for intraday purpose

the method follows...
1)now the trigger is todays open. if stock is trading abv open rgt now shorting below days open may give a good trade. Small trade.

2)if the stock is trading below days open.. buy abv open s/l days low.

this is a not yet fully tested... but works...With risk!!
details.. I will post in a week.

I am using it for futures.
posting for study purpose.. not suggesting any trade... and expecting feed back if u found it working

for example..
relinfra fut just @ 1.29 PM traded a tick below todays open... s/l is days high.

Add Ashok Leyland and Union Bank to this list.

Also, a good idea to wait a while and check the OHLC in both - the futures and equity - before deciding the direction.

Been looking a the same thing for these two scrips for a few days now. Results inclusive, but the risk takers can use ATR(10) as the target (or near there).

 

[nitingosavi]

watch these stocks.. just for today..

for example..
relinfra fut just @ 1.29 PM traded a tick below todays open... s/l is days high.

I sold it 3 times between open and high once it breached open from upside.. got 1-1.5 rs each trade it never reached earlier day high again.

Add Ashok Leyland and Union Bank to this list.

Also, a good idea to wait a while and check the OHLC in both - the futures and equity - before deciding the direction.

Been looking a the same thing for these two scrips for a few days now. Results inclusive, but the risk takers can use ATR(10) as the target (or near there).

I have not found these stocks randomly, it has a proper filter... so every day list will be different , last 4 days considered to short list them ,from FnO stocks only.

usually seen when last day they get filtered out there is a huge tendency that next day 50-70% of the times stocks have flat top or flat bottom candles. or high low trails(shoots/wicks) from open are very small than the major direction of the day. so there are high chances we r in a good trade !