Long or Short Opinion

[rajputz]

in the mean time it again got tested....dont know what eod brings us

 

[rajputz]

@crown: - yes it was 5 minutes chart

 

[kingfisher3210]

For everyone who advices being long based on India's GDP please be aware that it is not the GDP that drives the stock market it is the corporate profit we are still major exporters with very low consumption in our economy and these western countries when cut spending our businesses will shrink too.

India GDP is driven by internal consumption which accounts for 65% of GDP. Exports are around 15% of GDP. In US, internal consumption is 70% of GDP.

In china, the picture is opposite where consumption is 45% of GDP.

I dont think we are a low consumption economy. Infact, thats what world bank and IMF praises that india's own internal consumption model is a robust rather then export dependent china economic model.

The most astonishing part is that we had all the best news possible in last 1 month for the markets to make a new high yet it has not been able to make a new high do you think that is coincidence.

I dont predict whether it is bull or bear. I trade on daily basis with 'now factor'.

But if you will notice, nifty future wants to rise more and fall less. When Dow was 11,000 + in april 2010, we were 5300 +.

Now dow is around 9900 and we are at 5300. In the last 10 days or so, market is falling less as compared to global peers and rising at every opportunity.

Everyone is seeing a rise in FTSE right now but do they know why it is rising? The major cause for the rise today is BP which is up around 5%. Look at Germany look at the mining stocks in FTSE look at the banks they are all flat to down.

FTSE is rising because thats how human patterns repeat itself again and again. Also yesterday FTSE factored all Dow losses and so today a new pattern was expected to emerge.

One could rationalize FTSE rise using left brain analysis by looking at BP rise or 2 P.M (india time) UK business investment data (data was good) but what i have found out by intently watching markets, that there are repeated human behaviour patterns which keeps repeating again and again and today FTSE rise is a repeat closely resembling june 7 pattern.

 

[crown]

Every concept is getting screwed these days. Still if you watch then c. 5280 was tested the whole days but never got breaked. Which acted as a strong resistance...


p.s.: -i can be wrong.

bhai, in a lighter way, actually every concept is prone to screwing; and that is why improvement can take place. As guided and helped by you and other learned members, I am able to understand only a bit. I am right now focussing on one indicator i.e. CCI and trying to grab the various movements of momentum in comparison to the price.

Regarding bolded matter:
Everyone can be wrong. It is more than enough that you are taking pain to respond to my amateur (and somewhat useless queries) besides doing trade. Your initiative of expressing and sharing knowledge deserve :clapping::clapping:

 

[crown]

still keeping my shorts

 

[nimish_rulz]

But if you will notice, nifty future wants to rise more and fall less. When Dow was 11,000 + in april 2010, we were 5300 +.

Now dow is around 9900 and we are at 5300. In the last 10 days or so, market is falling less as compared to global peers and rising at every opportunity.

FTSE is rising because thats how human patterns repeat itself again and again. Also yesterday FTSE factored all Dow losses and so today a new pattern was expected to emerge.

All I am trying to say is that we are yet to make a higher high. The last 10 days you mentioned nifty has managed to make lower highs and higher lows. Even the low today at 5210 is the lowest in last 15 days or so.
I am not saying that it can't touch 5400 or 5500 but my point of argument is that downside risk is much more than potential upside.

If you feel that India's economy is 70% sustainable on local demand how do you explain the event of 2007 and beyond?
The truth is most of the markets are depended on America as it is the biggest consumer. The entire IT sector gets its revenue from America and Europe.

The consumption you are talking about most of it is subsidized. This doesn't generate substantial profits as still our major population is below the poverty line.

The P/E of India stock market is 23 compared to 18 in China Growth rate of India is 8.5% and China is 12.1%.

Last time we reached P/E of 23+ was Nov 2006 and This year April 2010. All I am saying is that this P/E is at historical Highs. I am not sure if you watch BDI index (Baltic Dry Index) which suggests the economic activity in the entire world as it links shipping rate and other things to it. That shows what is really going on it Peaked in May too.

Your argument that dow was 11300 and Nifty was at 5300 at that time and now it is at 9800 and Nifty is still at 5300. You fail to acknowledge the year to date performance which brings down that gap. Secondly Nifty when rose in feb from 4700 it only went to 5400 and previous high being 5310 whereas dow went from 9800 to 11300 and 600 points or 6% above its previous highs. The dow outperformed on the upside. FTSE outperformed on the upside. Now it was India who outperformed on the upside due to the string of positive news. However, If you see the Defy index dollar adjusted index you will find a completely different picture.
Defty is more useful measure for FIIs.

I am not arguing that Nifty has outperformed and looks the most bullish market at the moment the only thing I am saying is that it can't be the only market moving up and rest falling in the medium term. Also the upside is capped whereas downside is huge.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Sorry I think the link I had saved was the latest one and maybe the post had some problem. Sorry once again
Mother of All trading threads!- Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Currencies

 

[rajputz]

Can anyone tell me who is the moderator and how the hec my thread completely disappeared? Do we not get a warning before some1 deletes the entire thread? I don't know where to post it but since lot of people access this thread I thought it might be worth putting it here.

This is my thread title:

Mother of All trading threads!- Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Currencies

http://www.traderji.com/equities/41...ndices-commodities-currencies.html#post440224

Check it...it is in equities

 

[aditya14]

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
It is called distibution bro to give who is left

hmmm well said

 

[aditya14]

Now why so late I got a sell signal at 5250. When it couldn't hold on to its 200 DMA. Anyways good luck.

For everyone who advices being long based on India's GDP please be aware that it is not the GDP that drives the stock market it is the corporate profit we are still major exporters with very low consumption in our economy and these western countries when cut spending our businesses will shrink too. No doubt India has outperformed recently but please see even europe was outperforming every other continent until April and see what happened now all the indices down around 20%.

The most astonishing part is that we had all the best news possible in last 1 month for the markets to make a new high yet it has not been able to make a new high do you think that is coincidence. I am only seeing the shares rise which were cheap and recent news could benefit them. Oil and gas sector forms a major part of Nifty with banks.

Look at the other stocks too they are way below their 200 DMA. More than 50% of the stocks are below their 200 DMA I don't think that is a bull market.

But anyways do you own research as everyone has different time frames. China which is suppose to be the growth engine and grows 125% of India has fallen 30% this year even in 2007 Chinese market was the first to fall rest followed.

Everyone is seeing a rise in FTSE right now but do they know why it is rising? The major cause for the rise today is BP which is up around 5%. Look at Germany look at the mining stocks in FTSE look at the banks they are all flat to down.

Good luck and happy trading.

Best possible news meaning the dismal job numbers? Or the China revision? Or Euro hitting multi year lows? these good news held the markets back...

and as for GDP not drawing the markets shall i remind you what constitutes the GDP??? its the state of our economy how much business is growing..... anyways no point arguing with a permabear it seems