Long or Short Opinion

[kingfisher3210]

If you feel that India's economy is 70% sustainable on local demand how do you explain the event of 2007 and beyond?
The truth is most of the markets are depended on America as it is the biggest consumer. The entire IT sector gets its revenue from America and Europe.

Buddy, i have a gentle disagreement regarding this. India GDP grew by 6.7% in financial year 2008-2009- That was the height of painful recession.

Exports dwindled month after month in 2008-2009. Still India managed to grew by 6.7% in 2008-2009 from average of 9% growth rate during 2004-2007.

2.2% growth was shaved off because of recession which includes decreased exports. So, decreased exports did shaved off some GDP growth.

But Corporate India is not fully dependent on exports. If that was the case, we would have negative GDP growth like Singapore or some island nations had which are very much dependent on exports.

Our bulk of growth is derived from production of goods and services which are consumed internally. 13% of GDP comes through export of goods and services (which include IT services as well)

The consumption you are talking about most of it is subsidized. This doesn't generate substantial profits as still our major population is below the poverty line

It sounds you mean to say that corporate India net profit margins are unhealthy since they are selling low cost products to Indians where majority are living under poverty line.

I do not have data with me but as far my general knowledge is concerned, Corporate India average margins are quite healthy in line with global peers.

If you spot a boy in village eating swiss giant nestle kit kat priced at Rs 5, this does not mean nestle is not earning anything. Nestle is still making 10-15% margin on that after factoring in local cost of production in delivering chocolate made in India.

I know you are going to disagree with me and i respect your opinion and views.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Buddy, i have a gentle disagreement regarding this. India GDP grew by 6.7% in financial year 2008-2009- That was the height of painful recession.

Exports dwindled month after month in 2008-2009. Still India managed to grew by 6.7% in 2008-2009 from average of 9% growth rate during 2004-2007.

2.2% growth was shaved off because of recession which includes decreased exports. So, decreased exports did shaved off some GDP growth.

But Corporate India is not fully dependent on exports. If that was the case, we would have negative GDP growth like Singapore or some island nations had which are very much dependent on exports.

Our bulk of growth is derived from production of goods and services which are consumed internally. 13% of GDP comes through export of goods and services (which include IT services as well)



It sounds you mean to say that corporate India net profit margins are unhealthy since they are selling low cost products to Indians where majority are living under poverty line.

I do not have data with me but as far my general knowledge is concerned, Corporate India average margins are quite healthy in line with global peers.

If you spot a boy in village eating swiss giant nestle kit kat priced at Rs 5, this does not mean nestle is not earning anything. Nestle is still making 10-15% margin on that after factoring in local cost of production in delivering chocolate made in India.

I know you are going to disagree with me and i respect your opinion and views.

Bhai again you fail to address here when growth was High during recession what was our real growth taking inflation out of the picture. I don't want to argue with you about our economy it is very strong. We are the best growth country after china no doubt whatsoever. What I am saying is that Indian market is expensive in terms of earnings and if global growth gets hit we will suffer too. India cannot stand on its own if the entire world is going down.

 

[kingfisher3210]

Bhai again you fail to address here when growth was High during recession what was our real growth taking inflation out of the picture. I don't want to argue with you about our economy it is very strong. We are the best growth country after china no doubt whatsoever. What I am saying is that Indian market is expensive in terms of earnings and if global growth gets hit we will suffer too. India cannot stand on its own if the entire world is going down.

Bhai, that was real growth rate- 6.7% in 2008-2009.

After you add the inflation figures in the above figure, we will get nominal growth rate.

Yes, i agree with you if there is a double dip recession or worst depression, we will go down along with western countries. Positional Bears will make money out of it :thumb:

 

[crown]

one thing, which I learned, yesterday and today, is that taking trades mere on the basis of indicators, (indicators crossing each other or some point, indicators being in some specific zone etc.) and support/resistance levels (specially when I decide the support/resistance on the basis of previous day(s) levels) is definitely not gonna work in successful trading. No matter, how hard I work or try; it is beyond my capacity to successfully foresee any market activity which may take place. The best option is to have a rough idea of what may happen; and if it goes against get out of the trade immediately, take some time to re-analyse and then take trade as per what is actually taking place in present (which can only happen, if I put aside what I think or wish about the market and only focus on what is happening). And, in practice, I find this is the most or the only difficult thing to implement.

 

[crown]

One more thing, which I forgot to mention:

I really found CCI is the best indicator among all momentum indicators. Thanks to Rajput bhai

 

[aditya14]

One more thing, which I forgot to mention:

I really found CCI is the best indicator among all momentum indicators. Thanks to Rajput bhai

have u tried stochastics? because that is the most widely used and imo the most accurate indicator if u lookup any historic chart

 

[SwingKing]

One more thing, which I forgot to mention:

I really found CCI is the best indicator among all momentum indicators. Thanks to Rajput bhai

Indicators need to be exercised with caution. Be it Stochastic/MACD or any other derivative of price, it will always lag the market. Indicators are potently good for supplement analysis. But should not form the basis of primary analysis. If anyone includes a indicator in his trading plan, I believe he is lagging behind the true market action. On the contrary, if anyone supplements indicators with his trading plan, he could indeed be a very profitable trader. The key word to capture is "Supplement".

Tc

 

[rajputz]

have u tried stochastics? because that is the most widely used and imo the most accurate indicator if u lookup any historic chart

Just a word of caution Aditya. I my self started my TA with stochastics. On historic Chart they give excellent result. But when used on realtime frame, they are the most lagging, whipsaw generating and difficult to trade. One requires a high degree of understanding trading with stochastics alone in real time.

For any indicator and market understanding is the key. And as raunak bhai said - keep it as supplement and not the primary basis.

Still if some one wants to trade oscillators, then i recommend to trade divergence on stochastics.

 

[crown]

Indicators need to be exercised with caution. Be it Stochastic/MACD or any other derivative of price, it will always lag the market. Indicators are potently good for supplement analysis. But should not form the basis of primary analysis. If anyone includes a indicator in his trading plan, I believe he is lagging behind the true market action. On the contrary, if anyone supplements indicators with his trading plan, he could indeed be a very profitable trader. The key word to capture is "Supplement".

Tc

thanks raunak bhai
I am trying to follow this in practical implementation.
kyunki samajh me to aapki baat badi asaani se aa gayi, kyunki pehle bhi ye baat bahut bhai bole hai mereko; par hota kya hai ki jab real trading karta hu, us time apni khwahish ki market apne hisaab se chalna chahiye, itni jyada hawi ho jaati hai ki sab bhool jaata hu; aur phir baad me pachhtata hu

but I will keep on repeating and trying, till I build this habit.
:clap:

 

[crown]

covered my short in nifty
and entered long
call 5300 july @ 86
stop loss is today's low of nifty 5237