Long or Short Opinion

[SwingKing]

namaste Raunak Bhai jee

Big Bro,

I have done good effort on my part to analyse the past data of Nifty and scripts of Nifty and Junior Nifty. I tried to give specific attention near the area, where markets had strong downmoves or crashes. Despite my best efforts (though I am not yet satisfied with my understanding as well as intelligence to be sufficient enough to understand such things so easily), I couldn't found any significant indication in charts which can denote that a crash is about to occur. And that gave me a very useful understanding that one must not look for crashes in the market. Usually crashes occur due to some thing beyond technical analysis, like news and some immediate and unexpected incidents or something else. But I am somewhat clear in my understanding that one can not identify the crashes merely on the basis of technical analysis and some other info or technique or knowledge is required for this.
And, while at present, I am only having some knowledge of TA, I think it will be much better for any TA to think of it in terms of resistance and support. This thing was highlighted many times by Praveen Bhai.

And, in my opinion the market is very likely to face the resistance around 5500 wherein I can think of entering short for a target of 5400, which can be extended in case supportive indications surface.

Thanks bhai for your guidance and support

Some very valid points put forward Crown. Your thinking is in the correct direction.

Stock markets have a natural tendency to go up. When this gets supported with the kind of economy we have, the chances of upward movement increase further.

Whether crash can be predicted is something for you to decide. Some feel it can and some feel it can't.

Tc

 

[crown]

Hi raunak sir,

Partially agree with you.

This is my point for last few trading sessions. Smart Money never comes at top.

In smart money we generally look at the flow of DIIs and FIIs. But for the last few months, the way they are buying and selling is totally messed up. In the last bear run, we had FIIS as the buyers and DIIs as the sellers. And in this bull run at the top we had FIIs as the sellers and DIIs as the buyers. Which is little suspicious that what they are doing. There buying and selling activity for last few months is way beyond understanding.

For last 5-6 weeks we are in rangebound conditions with high volumes. This suggests me that there is some correction due. Whenever i have seen volume increasing at the top, it is always accompanied by correction. And also when we try to speculate nifty or any other stock, we try to look in the time of current or next expiry, where as this buying in delivery is for much bigger time frame. Only banking and telecome sector has shown strength, but we cannot forget that there are many sectors which are still weak. Metal, Auto, Oil which i believe will get weaker in coming time, Reliance the major constituent is still weak, State bank is also one of the major constituent giving me sell signals. Significantly, i have seen volumes giving me sell signal on nifty also.

Other thing is that when ever we rise so much or fall too much, we talk about support and resistance, but evidently it is always broken. Like when we were at top, every support was considered as a point to go long, but finally we settled at 4750. When we were at bottom, we were looking for 4400 at 4850, and every resitance was broken to take us to 5550.

For me it is distribution going on now. And also i am short on some active positions, with stoploss. Even if they hit my trailing stoploss, i would be in profit. But taking a long position is bit uncomfy. I am expecting these levels, but with some stair case pattern. Lets c, if i get some signal to short, cover or go long now.

Namaste Rajput bhai

Big Bro, one thing which I am still unable to understand is the concept of this smart money. Why it is called smart money? Is it because they are FIIs or DIIs or there is some other aspect of looking and finding it.
One more question bhai, why everyone is appearing very sure that this smart money, if it actually exists and can be actually identified, will never suffer loss?

Thanks bhai

 

[saivenkat]

I couldn't found any significant indication in charts which can denote that a crash is about to occur.

Crown bhai, what i learnt from seniors here is, Instead of looking in the markets to expect things to happen, of what you think..may be its a bullish or a bear run..Just follow the tide in the market.

Now-a-days i am not bothered even when market crash or it takes an upbeat.. If i wish to trade, on that day.. just i look for right time to enter and that's it.

Saivenkat

 

[crown]

Some very valid points put forward Crown. Your thinking is in the correct direction.

Stock markets have a natural tendency to go up. When this gets supported with the kind of economy we have, the chances of upward movement increase further.

Whether crash can be predicted is something for you to decide. Some feel it can and some feel it can't.

Tc

Raunak Sir
I am not at all against this aspect that crash can not be identified. But if it can be identified, why I am not able to find it merely on the basis of TA.
Therefore, I think that some other info and knowledge is required, in addition to simple TA, to identify it. And because right now I am not having any such info or knowledge, I find it better to keep up with my TA and do not look forward to expect or indicate any crash like things.

Raunak Sir, Can you please help me what other things one should know and understand for having more understanding of the markets.

Thanks big bro for your support and guidance.

 

[crown]

Crown bhai, what i learnt from seniors here is, Instead of looking in the markets to expect things to happen, of what you think..may be its a bullish or a bear run..Just follow the tide in the market.

Now-a-days i am not bothered even when market crash or it takes an upbeat.. If i wish to trade, on that day.. just i look for right time to enter and that's it.

Saivenkat

namaste Saivenkat bhai
And thanks
because I also find it very comfortable to go along with the flow, in stead of having arguments with your perception.
The moment you had logical indication that your trades have given or about to give contrary signal, just come out and try to think what markets are doing, in place of trading your plans.
I remember once one big bro perhaps Raj Bhai said this to me
"trade your plans but do not plan your trade"
This forum is just like a vast sea of knowledge, where there are so much generous and kind and successful traders who share their wisdom free of cost.
:clap:

 

[SwingKing]

Raunak Sir
I am not at all against this aspect that crash can not be identified. But if it can be identified, why I am not able to find it merely on the basis of TA.
Therefore, I think that some other info and knowledge is required, in addition to simple TA, to identify it. And because right now I am not having any such info or knowledge, I find it better to keep up with my TA and do not look forward to expect or indicate any crash like things.

Raunak Sir, Can you please help me what other things one should know and understand for having more understanding of the markets.

Thanks big bro for your support and guidance.

Crown,

THis is very difficult to answer. However, I will in brief tell you what you need to know.

1. Solid understanding of Technical Analysis
2. Understanding of what drives Economy; Fundamental Analysis
3. Understanding of what drives other Assets and Global Economy; Intermarket Analysis

Knowledge about all these domains won't come easily. But slowly it will come. Becoming an investor/trader is a long term process. Be patient and keep working.

Tc

 

[crown]

Ha..ha.. your respond at the speed of thought.. I know you would be referring to that thread.. yet some thing i am not clear in it.. will post later.

Regards
Saivenkat

namaste SaiVenkat Bhai

big bro, markets can not be controlled
they can just be identified whether they are going in specific direction or not.
And things can change overnight.
Therefore, I think the best way is to go along with it which Raunak Sir trying to tell us. There is nothing wrong in being wrong; but keeping up with your wrong is actually wrong. And when market moves against one's understanding, one can choose that either he is willing to keep up with his wrong or decide to go along the way.
:clap:

 

[crown]

Crown,

THis is very difficult to answer. However, I will in brief tell you what you need to know.

1. Solid understanding of Technical Analysis
2. Understanding of what drives Economy; Fundamental Analysis
3. Understanding of what drives other Assets and Global Economy; Intermarket Analysis

Knowledge about all these domains won't come easily. But slowly it will come. Becoming an investor/trader is a long term process. Be patient and keep working.

Tc

Thanks a lot Raunak Sir
If I want to understand the Fundamental analysis, then how should I proceed?
I mean where to look for the required knowledge and info in this regard.

 

[SwingKing]

namaste SaiVenkat Bhai

big bro, markets can not be controlled
they can just be identified whether they are going in specific direction or not.
And things can change overnight.
Therefore, I think the best way is to go along with it which Raunak Sir trying to tell us. There is nothing wrong in being wrong; but keeping up with your wrong is actually wrong. And when market moves against one's understanding, one can choose that either he is willing to keep up with his wrong or decide to go along the way.
:clap:

There's a famous quote on Markets,

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Extremely crucial to understand this.

Tc

 

[crown]

There's a famous quote on Markets,

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Extremely crucial to understand this.

Tc

:clap:
"And to understand the rationality in the irrational behavior of the market should be my motto"

Thanks Sir