Hi raunak sir,
Partially agree with you.
This is my point for last few trading sessions. Smart Money never comes at top.
In smart money we generally look at the flow of DIIs and FIIs. But for the last few months, the way they are buying and selling is totally messed up. In the last bear run, we had FIIS as the buyers and DIIs as the sellers. And in this bull run at the top we had FIIs as the sellers and DIIs as the buyers. Which is little suspicious that what they are doing. There buying and selling activity for last few months is way beyond understanding.
For last 5-6 weeks we are in rangebound conditions with high volumes. This suggests me that there is some correction due. Whenever i have seen volume increasing at the top, it is always accompanied by correction. And also when we try to speculate nifty or any other stock, we try to look in the time of current or next expiry, where as this buying in delivery is for much bigger time frame. Only banking and telecome sector has shown strength, but we cannot forget that there are many sectors which are still weak. Metal, Auto, Oil which i believe will get weaker in coming time, Reliance the major constituent is still weak, State bank is also one of the major constituent giving me sell signals. Significantly, i have seen volumes giving me sell signal on nifty also.
Other thing is that when ever we rise so much or fall too much, we talk about support and resistance, but evidently it is always broken. Like when we were at top, every support was considered as a point to go long, but finally we settled at 4750. When we were at bottom, we were looking for 4400 at 4850, and every resitance was broken to take us to 5550.
For me it is distribution going on now. And also i am short on some active positions, with stoploss. Even if they hit my trailing stoploss, i would be in profit. But taking a long position is bit uncomfy. I am expecting these levels, but with some stair case pattern. Lets c, if i get some signal to short, cover or go long now.
