M6 - Man, Mind, Money, Markets, Method & Madness

[DSM]

Modern times.....

 

[amitrandive]

One red paperclip - Innovative trading

On July 14, 2005, he went to Vancouver and traded the paperclip for a fish-shaped pen.
He then traded the pen the same day for a hand-sculpted doorknob from Seattle, Washington, which he nicknamed "Knob-T".
On July 25, 2005, he travelled to Amherst, Massachusetts, with a friend to trade Knob-T for a Coleman camp stove (with fuel).
On September 24, 2005, he went to California, and traded the camp stove for a Honda generator.
On November 16, 2005, he traded the generator for an "instant party": an empty keg, an IOU for filling the keg with the beer of the holder's choice, and a neon Budweiser sign.
On December 8, 2005, he traded the "instant party" to Quebec comedian and radio personality Michel Barrette for one Ski-doo snowmobile.
Within a week of that, he traded the snowmobile for a two-person trip to Yahk, British Columbia, in February 2006.
On or about January 7, 2006, he traded the second spot on the Yahk trip for a cube van.
On or about February 22, 2006, he traded the cube van for a recording contract with Metalworks in Mississauga, Ontario.
On or about April 11, 2006, he traded the recording contract to Jody Gnant for a year's rent in Phoenix, Arizona.
On or about April 26, 2006, he traded the one year's rent in Phoenix, Arizona, for one afternoon with Alice Cooper.
On or about May 26, 2006, he traded the one afternoon with Alice Cooper for a KISS motorized snow globe.
On or about June 2, 2006, he traded the KISS motorized snow globe to Corbin Bernsen for a role in the film Donna on Demand.[3]
On or about July 5, 2006, he traded the movie role for a two-story farmhouse in Kipling, Saskatchewan.[/B]

Just a doubt, how can you trade an afternoon already spent and an instant party?
Also trading a movie role ,seems difficult?

 

[toocool]

While true for most, I remember reading on one trader featured in the 'Market Wizard' series who was an exception to this rule..... Don't recollect the name though.

true, but 90%+ people do , so its kind of law of trading:lol:

 

[DSM]

On November 16, 2005, he traded the generator for an "instant party" = an empty keg, an IOU for filling the keg with the beer of the holder's choice, and a neon Budweiser sign.
On or about July 5, 2006, he traded the movie role = for a two-story farmhouse in Kipling, Saskatchewan.Maybe a small part in a movie = People will sell their souls to get in a movie or even a C grade TV serial. Why am I not surprised?

BTW, you can check the details from the source. It's from Wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_red_paperclip

Just a doubt, how can you trade an afternoon already spent and an instant party?
Also trading a movie role ,seems difficult?

 

[DSM]

Alexander Elder

http://www.forextraders.com/forex-analysis/famous-traders/alexander-elder.html

Alexander Elder, M.D. is a native Russian who defected to the United States at the tender age of 23. He has since worked as a New York City psychiatrist, Columbia University professor, and expert stock trader. Drawing heavily on his psychiatry background, Dr. Elder was so successful that he is the author of a number of stock trading insider books, and also a much lauded speaker and trainer. It is a little known fact that he began his stock trading experience by buying one stock: KinderCare. Alexander Elder is an enigma in the world of stock traders; he not only understands the details of the transactions, but also the mindset of the traders before, during and after the business deal. More importantly, he has successfully transferred this knowledge to common market behavior, making him the trader with an edge that those attending Dr. Elder’s seminars eagerly seek to imitate.

According to Alexander Elder, there are three stages to trading:

1. The trader who is technically well versed but devoid of an understanding with respect to the human component.

2. The trader who realizes that in spite of technical knowledge there is no guarantee to success. As such, he will attempt to recreate the mindset and decisions he made during successful stock trades, and avoid those that he made during unsuccessful ventures. Dr. Elder calls this the awakening of a psychological understanding with respect to stock trades.

3. This trader understands that successful stock trading requires control and money management. Rather than letting stats and positions move him, it is the management of the money and the control thereof that causes him to anticipate future positions.


It is interesting to note that – unlike so many other traders turned author – Alexander Elder freely acknowledges that while trading for a living is most certainly a workable lifestyle, it requires an extensive amount of discipline and a significant bit of work before the first trade is even made. This makes it an unsuitable goal for a good many stock traders who are attempting to go it alone. As a matter of fact, when Dr. Elder teaches a seminar, he freely acknowledges that the majority of participants are likely to fail.

He sees his role as a mentor to those stock traders who have the right personality to keep trading. Dr. Elder recalls his epiphany with respect to trading in his book entitled “Trading for a Living.” He remembers that after reading “How to Buy Stocks” there was the definitive moment in time when he realized that there was an entire world of money making out there, of which he was thus far unaware. What is more, Alexander Elder remembers that even though he knew nothing about stock trading, he started out slow, with a stock in KinderCare.

Over time he studies the ups and downs of the market, learned about the intricacies of stock trading, and finally shifted his career focus to trading stocks as well as options. Dr. Elder finally settled on trading futures as the vehicle that is netting him the most income. He decided to practice psychiatry part time, usually after the markets have closed for the day. Alexander Elder is noteworthy for plainly advocating that there is no secret to success when it comes to trading.

 

[DSM]

S&P 500 will peak around 1,900 to 1,950 then drop 30%: Saxo Bank strategist - Barbara Kollmeyer and Sara Sjolin

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...00-to-1950-then-drop-30-saxo-bank-strategist/

The S&P 500 SPX -1.25% is a mere 10 points away from a 30% plunge, says Saxo Bank’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen. He expects equities will peak at around 1,900-1,950 before that big plunge kicks in. Given that the S&P 500 is hovering around 1,890, that selloff looks like it’s just around the corner. Instead, it could be a long, slow meltdown. “We’re not looking at this correction for next month or for the next two quarters, this is for late 2014. If you’re looking at it right now, the market may have an upside of 5%, but then you’re looking at a 30% downside in the final month of 2014,” he says.

Plenty have been predicting that things look bumpier this year. Analysts at Societe Generale predicted a day ago that the era of low volatility was drawing to a close based on hedge-fund activity. And if investors only have the potential of around 5% upside from here, Jakobsen says it may be worth backing out of equities starting now. “Take out the money you earned over the last year and if you want to invest it right now, put it in U.S. and German bonds,” he says.

Jakobsen says equities, unlike other asset classes, haven’t had a proper correction since the first round of quantitative easing began back in 2008.
“The first phase [of the correction] was commodities, which rose, then fell back. The second phase was fixed income, which rose then fell back again…now we come to equities. Since QE was launched, equities have kept rising,” he says. “For this saga to play out fully, I think we need it to go into equities. That will happen on a lack of earnings growth. Statistically speaking, markets have had a correction of 10% almost every year, and 25% to 30% every five years. “And the world came into this year extremely optimistic about future growth,” he says. (Also check out Jakobsen’s interview on CNBC).

Similar thoughts were heard from Morgan Housel, columnist for the Motley Fool earlier this week, who explained why markets will always crash.(h/t Need to Know) “Markets crash all the time. You should, at minimum, expect stocks to fall at least 10% once a year, 20% once every few years, 30% or more once or twice a decade, and 50% or more once or twice during your lifetime. Those who don’t understand this will eventually learn it the hard way,” he says.

 

[amitrandive]

S&P 500 will peak around 1,900 to 1,950 then drop 30%: Saxo Bank strategist - Barbara Kollmeyer and Sara Sjolin

Again the Doomsday Sayers have started their ramblings
I still do not understand why these people want to predict anything at all.
If they are so sure of their predictions they should become multi-multi-multi billionaires by using their investment strategies and sophisticated softwares.

Anyone interested should read the book." The Big Short " by Michael Lewis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short

These people not only predicted the sub-prime mortagage crash,but they also became millionaires by creating credit swaps and shorting real estate.

As Peter Drucker once said " The best way to predict the future is to create it."

 

[Vertigo_1985]

Again the Doomsday Sayers have started their ramblings
I still do not understand why these people want to predict anything at all.
If they are so sure of their predictions they should become multi-multi-multi billionaires by using their investment strategies and sophisticated softwares.

i think it's fine till there are enough people calling doomsday, it's when buy-buy rambling starts one should start to look for signs of top.

 

[Vertigo_1985]

we all know how important is the start of the trading day..so how do you all start ? any specific procedure or visualization ?
what you do during trading session to maintain focus ?
If you are following goals then how you review them at eod ?

 

[DSM]

Good question Vertigo. Guess for each trader it's different. I start with the following :

Tea/Newspaper : Economic Times, Timesbof India. Just quick scan. Read few articles of interest. Bathe. Get fresh. Get online, Scan CNN, Bloomberg, Investing dot com Check what's happening in imp. Commodities I.e Gold, silver, crude, copper, NG and Nickle. Check a few charts. Quick scan TJ. Log in to Sharekhan and check 20Day30Minute and Intraday 5Minute charts of the above mentioned commodities, Nifty, BankNifty. See the important turning points (high and low made) See the candlestick patterns made before the market turning point. Save these charts for reference - (about 20) Make a note of important event for day. Then ready to trade. 15 minutes before open, switch on business news. May trade at open with a strict SL of 10 points/lot. Usually wait for 10 minutes after open to trading. Check charts of stocks breaking out/breaking down. May trade trade them.

9:55 check intl. charts of commodities. 10 AM watch MCX charts. May trade within first 10 minutes, but usually after. Track Nifty/bankNifty/commodities on 3and then 5 minute TF. usually wait for range break. Morning actually, trading is light, or may not even happen. Around 12:30 track index, commodities. Wil trade basis some signals. After 1:30 PM now have an interest in trading some stock with a strong with a trend... that which makes good patterns HHHL and confirming trend on 30M TF. Enter, on dip, place SL, exit before EOD. Take position in commodity, place SL. Close terminal. Take a small nap. Have tea, go for a walk. Get back. Have bath, and be fresh. Check if open positions. Check intl. charts and news for commodities. Browse, update post on TJ. Have early dinner. Trade - usually till 10 or if interesting till 1130. Collate and save executed trade data. data. Review PL. review good and bad trades. Check good trades missed. Reasons for the same. Make notes in dairy. Reflect on what was learnt. Update learnings for something new. Switch off the terminal. In between all this there is TJ, mail.... Having multiple windows open. Most imp. Is to see the good trades that were missed. Like yesterday Copper crashed 6k/lot however I was tracking and trading Silver, NG, Crude, and missed the move on copper which I also trade. Yesterday was NFP data. Besides Silver, Gold, I am linking big move in Copper to NFP data. So ready for copper on next NFP data. That is the learning.... weekend relax. Check dairy. Check PL, reflect on imp. Learnings during the week. Relax, and be ready to trade next weel....

we all know how important is the start of the trading day..so how do you all start ? any specific procedure or visualization ?
what you do during trading session to maintain focus ?
If you are following goals then how you review them at eod ?