Market updates for Intraday

[Uncle-ji]

Wednesday, 11-May-2011, After Market Hours

We are back to the flat days where the NIFTY kept within a 30-point range for most part of the day. Needless to say, such days are bad for intraday traders. Some opportunity was always there, but it required an expert hand to get at them today. The chart pattern clearly shows that resistance at 5600 is tough, but we will surely cross it in the coming days. We just need a little help from volumes.

What will happen after we cross 5600 is a different story altogether!

More on Thursday's likely trade-pattern will be in Pre-Market notes of 12th at about 8:45am

 

[linkon7]

I think, volumes drying up is a sign of a big storm that is going to come... 5400 put added huge OI in today's session and any time such build up happens market is secretly factoring in a bigger fall that might come in coming days...

Fact that we are trading below most significant DMAs cannot be a good sign as buying seems to dissipate above the 5570 mark... So far most of the likely triggers are all getting differed. Tomorrow IIP number is expected to be bad and expectation is as low as 3.8. Assembly election results can be a trigger.

Only positive in all these is that at least FII stopped selling aggressively and are marginal buyers. Even on index front, they have squared off a lot of their short positions in the last 2-3 days...

Key level for me is the 5445 mark... if that is broken then 5355-5310 remains my first target... On the up side 5630 is the trigger for a 5790 tgt...

My bias is on the south side though...

 

[sumosanammain]

I think, volumes drying up is a sign of a big storm that is going to come... 5400 put added huge OI in today's session and any time such build up happens market is secretly factoring in a bigger fall that might come in coming days...

Fact that we are trading below most significant DMAs cannot be a good sign as buying seems to dissipate above the 5570 mark... So far most of the likely triggers are all getting differed. Tomorrow IIP number is expected to be bad and expectation is as low as 3.8. Assembly election results can be a trigger.

Only positive in all these is that at least FII stopped selling aggressively and are marginal buyers. Even on index front, they have squared off a lot of their short positions in the last 2-3 days...

Key level for me is the 5445 mark... if that is broken then 5355-5310 remains my first target... On the up side 5630 is the trigger for a 5790 tgt...

My bias is on the south side though...

Thanks for letting us know that IIP is expected tomorrow... Any website where we can know this in advance? Last time I got caught in the volatility when IIP was declared and I was not aware that it was due for release. One disadvantage of switching off Cartoon Network

 

[Uncle-ji]

Thursday, 12-May-2011, Pre-Market 9am

Flat or Negative opening and cautious trading expected today;
Asian markets bad; Almost the whole world is in the red;
Dollar down; NYMEX Crude has decreased significantly;
NIFTY support levels today are: 5500, 5490 and 5440;
NIFTY resistance levels today are: 5600, 5625 and 5635;
Q4 Results today: COALINDIA JINDALSAW LUPIN MTNL and others;
Industrial output data and weekly food inflation to be announced today;
Our market should come out of sidewise movement and get direction today.

 

[Uncle-ji]

linkon7> I think you are spot on about volumes drying up and the impending storm.

Only positive in all these is that at least FII stopped selling aggressively and are marginal buyers. Even on index front, they have squared off a lot of their short positions in the last 2-3 days...

Volumes have been abnormally low in the last 3 sessions with very low FII and DII activity and FIIs have been net buyers in all these 3 days. This means they are quietly getting out of their short positions and will now wait and see which way the market is going.

So, even if a short-covering rally comes, it will be short. If we get a repeat of the same trends in FII and volume figures today, your 'impending storm' theory will become stronger.

At least we have two triggers today to get some action!

 

[Uncle-ji]

Thursday, 12-May-2011, 10:00am

Big Gap-down opening as expected; In the red, but making up now;
Positive bias; Our markets flat just below neutral zone;
NIFTY opened today below 5530, came up immediately to 5550 levels;
NIFTY now around 5547; Finding it difficult to cross 5550;
Upside will be pronounced after 5560/5575; Bulls in control after 5600;
Downside will be possible only after 5525;
Market likely to trade within a range in the next hour.

 

[Uncle-ji]

Thursday, 12-May-2011, 11:20am

Our market has given a surge to 5570 area; Trading good now;
Positive bias; The whole world is in red now;
Positive upsurge likely in expectation of March IIP figures;
Election results also factored in; Inflation figures also expected;
NIFTY now around 5565; Localised resistance of 5550 broken;
But could not cross another localised resistance of 5575;
More upsurge if 5575 is crossed with confidence;
5520 support still active; No downside until 5520 is breached;
Be careful in choppy market ...

 

[Uncle-ji]

Thursday, 12-May-2011, 12:40pm

Market back in the red; Trading flat again;
Our market trading within a range; Slight Positive bias;
IIP figures and Inflation data largely ignored by our market;
Europe opening can give direction to our market;
NIFTY now around 5540; Resistance of 5540 and 5575 still holds;
Downside will be pronounced if 5520 is breached convincingly;
Be certain before taking position in LONG in uncertain market.

 

[Uncle-ji]

Notes on IIP figures published today ...

There are some controversies. Follow these:

> India's industrial production grew a terrific 7.3% in March 2011, higher than 3.65% growth a month ago. > Very Good.
> Capital goods during March rose a robust 12.9% compared with a contraction of 18.4% last month. > Again, very good.
> Non-durable goods growth came in at 5.7% versus 1.5% (YoY). > This is a yearly figure.
> For the year (FY11) industrial output grew a meagre 7.8% as compared to 10.5% clocked in the previous fiscal.
> Manufacturing, which constitutes about 80% of the industrial production, rose an annual 7.9% versus 16.4%.
> While mining grew a minuscule 0.2% as against its growth of 12.3% during the same month last year.
> Capital goods too saw growth of only 12.9% versus 36% (YoY).

Can you still say IIP figures are good? The market first went by the 7.3% figure; then caught on and went down immediately.

Members thoughts on this ... please

 

[Uncle-ji]

Thursday, 12-May-2011, 2:30pm

Market has gone deeper in the red; Negative bias;
Almost whole world is in the red now;
NIFTY now around 5490; Markets going down in a consistent manner;
Supports of 5500 has been broken; 5490 is under test now; Next is 5440;
Upside not possible under the circumstances; Not beyond 5540 in any case;
Stay away if already in profit.