Monthly profit /loss statistics

[badarivt]

Created a bull spread on 16th (paper trade). Bought 8700CE at 77 and sold 8800CE at 40. Risk to reward is -37 / +63. Made Rs 13.5 on 17th. Expecting fall, created a bear call spread - sold 8700CE at 73 and bough 8800CE at 37.5. Risk to reward is -64.5 / +35.5
Current loss is Rs -7

 

[timepass]

St sir , i've read that most of the time market remains in range and it trends 30% of the time only.

This means to be profitable one has to catch big moves on trending days , coz on other days one may be less profitable and probability of SL being hit will also increase , right ?

Here the biggest question is how to identify trending vs non trending days ?

If we wait for candle formations like higher high-higher low we may miss a large chunk of moves...

As you said that one who trades well will be profitable for 70-75% of the days, but what if most of those days are non trending

I'm confused..plz guide

There are some useful posts by ST about this :

Thrust ...sideways....thrust

Markets very rarely go straight up or down....but the trend manifests itself in sequence of Thurst,Sideways,Thurst . The sideways hase after the thrust is necessary as the weak holders book profits,scalpers book profits, strong holders buy more,and then comes a breakout from sideways movement.

In todays Nifty Futures there are 4 such sideways zones marked...market brokeout each zone with a strong thrusting bar to continue its uptrend. Thrusting bars are like a rocket launcher which launches the rocket into the new orbit and in strong trend , it will not come back into the orbit ( sideways zone ) once it leaves it.....once we understand that , the rest is easy...We can use this behaviour of the market to time our entries, trail stops, adds....


Smart_trade

HOW TO IDENTIFY A TRENDING DAY

I had posted silmilar post in miniflow thread some months back,tried to locate it but it seems to have got burried...

Nobody can identify a strong trending day before the day starts...but as the day's market action progresses, it can be identified with fair accuracy. Some of the tell-a-tale signs of strong up trending day are as under : Mirror image for down trending day.

1) Strong up day starts near the bottom of the day's range and closes near the top of the range both within bottom/top 20%. This means that the market does not retrace much after opening and quickly gets down to its business.

2) Strong up days are made of 1-2 Wide Range Bars ( WRBs)with large volumes.

3) In up trending day the rallies will be have more volumes than declining bars.

4) In uptrending day, there are no frequent reversals.

5) Market overall is strong and broadbased meaning there is strong move in many stocks/indices.

6) In uptrend day market does not retrace much....retracements are small and market gains the retraced ground fast.It is my thumb rule that if the market in-between retraces more than 25 points in Nifty Futures from its intraday top,chances of strong up day are remote.

7) In strong up day market gallops after 2:00 -2:30....and rises very fast from 2:45 to 3:10....and may retrace some ground gained afterwards.

We daytraders must have some large trend days on our side ,where holding till end and adding on every dip is all we need to do , to keep us on winning side.

Best wishes,

Smart_trade

 

[Sunnyraj]

Thanks TP sir for sharing the posts.

Now wats required is keen observation on price action and check if the above criteria are fulfilled and then take action accordingly...

It'll take time to understand the movements but that's how i'll learn

 

[narangji]

I am in loss of 35% of capital. I have recovered from 60% bottom. Have 12 days of profits in this month followed by 3 days of loss.

 

[TraderRavi]

I am in loss of 35% of capital. I have recovered from 60% bottom. Have 12 days of profits in this month followed by 3 days of loss.

12 days of profit and still 60% loss of capital

 

[stock72]

Update 19th March ... +6% of trading capital ..

Going to update only on month basis

Update 18th March ..-12% of the trading capital.

 

[stock72]

Update 19th March ... +6% of trading capital ..

Going to update only on month basis

If continued instead booking profit at predetermined target I would have end at +40%.. Day like this is also equally pain like loss days ...

 

[TraderRavi]

If continued instead booking profit at predetermined target I would have end at +40%.. Day like this is also equally pain like loss days ...

kaise bhi sukh nahi :lol::lol:

 

[badarivt]

If continued instead booking profit at predetermined target I would have end at +40%.. Day like this is also equally pain like loss days ...

Surprised you did not use a trailing stop loss. Better luck next time

 

[stock72]

Surprised you did not use a trailing stop loss. Better luck next time

Me too wondering how to do that ? As market is falling and the price approaching the target ..and u know it is very volatile ..even I re order to reduce 1 rupees as the price comming close to target and moving away .and repeating like that for a while .