Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
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markets for 05 aug 09
well the expected downward correction towards the earlier rectangular channel took place and after liquidating weaker hands,towards end of the day, nifty bounced back this time from the 21 hour ema, the earlier two days had seen nifty bounce back from 13 hour ema. On tuesday, the median line of the andrews pitchfork marked in blue line in chart below also provided strong support to nifty for a sharp bounce back upto the pivot level towards the end. Even if nifty slips again with low volume on wednesday induced by weak us markets overnight or low volume sgx nifty as had happened on tuesday, it should not at all bring worry for the long holders as a correction till 4613 till 4600 where 55 ema is there or even into the fridays gap zone till 4588 is quite possible and can be expected. However if at all nifty comes to these levels, it will offer great buying opportunity.
If one has a closer look at the hourly chart below, one will notice that, slow stochastic has come down below 50% zone and there is a possibility that it may test the lower zone that will rebound it upwards from nifty levels of 4600 to 4588 levels. In any case closing support area around 4650 to 4630 should finally come to the rescue of nifty by close of the day. However should the indicator without going further down turns up from this middle zone it will again impart a sharp up move towards 4747 nifty levels.
Secondly, in the chart below, the intraday correction on tuesday has brought nifty to be housed in another downward slopping rectangle with resistance around 4700 & gradual intraday support around 4626.nifty may find initial support around the median line around 4650 levels. A decisive breach of this median line support around 4650 can bring down nifty towards 4626 or 55 ema around 4600 levels for a sharp bounce. On the higher side, a decisive breach of the resistance around 4700 & more importantly 4717 can see another rocket type move induced by short covering that can take nifty towards 4750 or higher levels. So, all in all one should expect another volatile but range bound day with a flat or mildly bearish out look for wednesday. After the expected pause is over, one can see a sharp break out up move.
well the expected downward correction towards the earlier rectangular channel took place and after liquidating weaker hands,towards end of the day, nifty bounced back this time from the 21 hour ema, the earlier two days had seen nifty bounce back from 13 hour ema. On tuesday, the median line of the andrews pitchfork marked in blue line in chart below also provided strong support to nifty for a sharp bounce back upto the pivot level towards the end. Even if nifty slips again with low volume on wednesday induced by weak us markets overnight or low volume sgx nifty as had happened on tuesday, it should not at all bring worry for the long holders as a correction till 4613 till 4600 where 55 ema is there or even into the fridays gap zone till 4588 is quite possible and can be expected. However if at all nifty comes to these levels, it will offer great buying opportunity.
If one has a closer look at the hourly chart below, one will notice that, slow stochastic has come down below 50% zone and there is a possibility that it may test the lower zone that will rebound it upwards from nifty levels of 4600 to 4588 levels. In any case closing support area around 4650 to 4630 should finally come to the rescue of nifty by close of the day. However should the indicator without going further down turns up from this middle zone it will again impart a sharp up move towards 4747 nifty levels.
Secondly, in the chart below, the intraday correction on tuesday has brought nifty to be housed in another downward slopping rectangle with resistance around 4700 & gradual intraday support around 4626.nifty may find initial support around the median line around 4650 levels. A decisive breach of this median line support around 4650 can bring down nifty towards 4626 or 55 ema around 4600 levels for a sharp bounce. On the higher side, a decisive breach of the resistance around 4700 & more importantly 4717 can see another rocket type move induced by short covering that can take nifty towards 4750 or higher levels. So, all in all one should expect another volatile but range bound day with a flat or mildly bearish out look for wednesday. After the expected pause is over, one can see a sharp break out up move.
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morning update at 8 am 05 aug 09
last night dow continued with its upward march by rising 33 points. S&p 500 maintained above the 1000 mark & nasdaq also maintained above the 2000 mark. European markets closed flat so also brazilian markets. Asian markets have opened flat to mixed but may turn more negative at the time of indian opening around 9.55 am to finally close flat to mildly bearish.
For indian markets expect a flat opening. Nifty may show flat to down side movement initially to test the critical support around 4650 levels but the the range may be confined within tuesdays range with a flattish bias. However should it move up initially, only a cross over of 4700 to 4717 and sustaining above it may bring some upward strength for nifty.
Traders holding lower calls of 4600 may hold these and short 5000 or 4900 calls on market rise. Similarly put holders holding puts of 4500 may hold these and short 4300 and lower puts on intraday falls like tuesday. Future traders should resort to intraday trading only without any plan to carry over.
Now at 7 am ist, sgx nifty is showing +39 at 4715 with an interesting volume of 33 only. One must keenly observe what does it show at the time of opening of indian markets at 9.55 a.m.
last night dow continued with its upward march by rising 33 points. S&p 500 maintained above the 1000 mark & nasdaq also maintained above the 2000 mark. European markets closed flat so also brazilian markets. Asian markets have opened flat to mixed but may turn more negative at the time of indian opening around 9.55 am to finally close flat to mildly bearish.
For indian markets expect a flat opening. Nifty may show flat to down side movement initially to test the critical support around 4650 levels but the the range may be confined within tuesdays range with a flattish bias. However should it move up initially, only a cross over of 4700 to 4717 and sustaining above it may bring some upward strength for nifty.
Traders holding lower calls of 4600 may hold these and short 5000 or 4900 calls on market rise. Similarly put holders holding puts of 4500 may hold these and short 4300 and lower puts on intraday falls like tuesday. Future traders should resort to intraday trading only without any plan to carry over.
Now at 7 am ist, sgx nifty is showing +39 at 4715 with an interesting volume of 33 only. One must keenly observe what does it show at the time of opening of indian markets at 9.55 a.m.
Markets for 06 aug 09
it was another highly volatile day with nse index just unable to cross the given critical level of 4717. It tried its best twice, once around the start time and again towards the end of the day to cross the critical level of 4717 but failed miserably both times clearly meaning that it will be some more days of pause before this critical level is decisively breached for higher levels towards 4747 followed by 4767. Wednesday also saw nifty coming down exactly till the support level of 4630 beating tuesdays lows of 4642. So one can safely assume to see a low of 4616 on thursday from where likely bounce may again be expected. However, if 4616 is breached then nifty can quickly fall to 4606 followed by 4588.
If one has a closer look at the hourly chart above, one can see a clear upward looking rectangle within which nifty is moving, the base of the rectangle being around 4565 levels & the top line resistance around 4780 levels. Within this rectangle also, there is a straight smaller rectangle with resistance around critical 4717 and base around 4588 levels. Another support line forms the diagonal of this smaller rectangle with support around 4550 & resistance around 4717. So in case nifty slips below this support line around 4650 to 4646 levels, then one can be reasonably sure to see 4588 on thursday after breaching series of supports at 4626,4616 & 4606. Well if 4588 does not hold then the bulls will surely return around 4565 levels.
Important hourly indicator slow stochastic has turned up just short of the lower zone which is definitely a bullish signal as long as it does not turn from here to enter the lower zone that will indicate extreme bearishness for bigger falls. Most likely with adverse impact of overnight us markets & weak asian markets in the morning, nse index may open gap down but the gap is most likely to be faded by the bulls from around 4616 levels. On the higher side, if indian markets hoodwink the weakness in world markets to surprise everyone, then there is every possibility of a sharp up move towards 4747 or even 4767 levels after crossing the critical resistance around 4717 levels. However, since nifty has closed around the highest point of the day on wednesday, there is every possibility of initial fall to lower levels & then to bounce back later to test the previous days closing highs around 4690 levels.
In the daily eod chart of nse index, if one draws a line from the 13th july low of 3919 to 29th july lows of 4420 & extend it, then this support line will meet nse index around 4670 on thursday 6th august. So a fall below this line by breaching 4670 will technically trigger a breach of short term trend line. So unless nifty moves up by end to close above this trend line, one can safely assume some more days of falls.2 consecutive days of dojis on 27th & 28th july having their tops around 4600 levels may provide support for nifty. Since nifty was either having flat days or mildly negative days since last 2 days, there is every possibility of a milder correction till about 4600 to 4616 from where one may plan to buy for good gains later in the day, as has been happening almost every day after every intraday fall the indices bounce back sharply to close flat or mildly negative or mildly positive. So one should expect a similar flattish or milder closing on thursday around 4650 levels.
it was another highly volatile day with nse index just unable to cross the given critical level of 4717. It tried its best twice, once around the start time and again towards the end of the day to cross the critical level of 4717 but failed miserably both times clearly meaning that it will be some more days of pause before this critical level is decisively breached for higher levels towards 4747 followed by 4767. Wednesday also saw nifty coming down exactly till the support level of 4630 beating tuesdays lows of 4642. So one can safely assume to see a low of 4616 on thursday from where likely bounce may again be expected. However, if 4616 is breached then nifty can quickly fall to 4606 followed by 4588.
If one has a closer look at the hourly chart above, one can see a clear upward looking rectangle within which nifty is moving, the base of the rectangle being around 4565 levels & the top line resistance around 4780 levels. Within this rectangle also, there is a straight smaller rectangle with resistance around critical 4717 and base around 4588 levels. Another support line forms the diagonal of this smaller rectangle with support around 4550 & resistance around 4717. So in case nifty slips below this support line around 4650 to 4646 levels, then one can be reasonably sure to see 4588 on thursday after breaching series of supports at 4626,4616 & 4606. Well if 4588 does not hold then the bulls will surely return around 4565 levels.
Important hourly indicator slow stochastic has turned up just short of the lower zone which is definitely a bullish signal as long as it does not turn from here to enter the lower zone that will indicate extreme bearishness for bigger falls. Most likely with adverse impact of overnight us markets & weak asian markets in the morning, nse index may open gap down but the gap is most likely to be faded by the bulls from around 4616 levels. On the higher side, if indian markets hoodwink the weakness in world markets to surprise everyone, then there is every possibility of a sharp up move towards 4747 or even 4767 levels after crossing the critical resistance around 4717 levels. However, since nifty has closed around the highest point of the day on wednesday, there is every possibility of initial fall to lower levels & then to bounce back later to test the previous days closing highs around 4690 levels.
In the daily eod chart of nse index, if one draws a line from the 13th july low of 3919 to 29th july lows of 4420 & extend it, then this support line will meet nse index around 4670 on thursday 6th august. So a fall below this line by breaching 4670 will technically trigger a breach of short term trend line. So unless nifty moves up by end to close above this trend line, one can safely assume some more days of falls.2 consecutive days of dojis on 27th & 28th july having their tops around 4600 levels may provide support for nifty. Since nifty was either having flat days or mildly negative days since last 2 days, there is every possibility of a milder correction till about 4600 to 4616 from where one may plan to buy for good gains later in the day, as has been happening almost every day after every intraday fall the indices bounce back sharply to close flat or mildly negative or mildly positive. So one should expect a similar flattish or milder closing on thursday around 4650 levels.
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message to all:
i do market analysis two times in a trading day:
1) at the time when us market opens & most of the europeon market are at their peak.
2) at the time when almost all the asian markets have opened and australian/new zeland markets are at peak.
all my analysis are premarket analysis, so do not follow the levels blindly. Keep the levels as mentioned in mind and trade profitably with prevailing market condition, chart pattern and indicators.
THANKS
i do market analysis two times in a trading day:
1) at the time when us market opens & most of the europeon market are at their peak.
2) at the time when almost all the asian markets have opened and australian/new zeland markets are at peak.
all my analysis are premarket analysis, so do not follow the levels blindly. Keep the levels as mentioned in mind and trade profitably with prevailing market condition, chart pattern and indicators.
THANKS
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