Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 31 july 09

last night dow finally closed up by 83 points at 9152.it went up to 9246 and most of the time remained far above the yearly high of 9175 finally giving up the gain during closing minutes to close below the 2009 highs. One should not be surprised to see sharp up moves in dow towards 10000 mark in coming days with small corrections in between. Similarly brazil too made a new yearly high by crossing june highs during intraday trading and finally closed 1.3% up. European markets which are now trading above the june highs, were up nearly 2% with uk ftse closing up by 1.9%. Asian markets which are already above their june highs have opened strongly and are likely to remain bullish for the day but what is more important is, how strong these markets are around indian opening at 9.55 a.m. One can see much more higher moves in asian markets in coming days.

For indian markets expect a bullish opening near or above the critical level of 4600 and sensex & nifty may try to move up towards june highs of 15600 & 4693.traders may trade long intraday, meaning wait for an intraday correction to go long as the possibility of breaching june highs are quite high in next 1 or 2 days. Future traders may wait for an intraday decline to take long positions in stock futures of metals, oil & gas production, cement, capital goods & power stocks for good gains during coming week.

Option traders should hold on to their 4600 bought calls & wait for intraday declines in the markets to add more. As markets move up towards june highs, they may buy put of 4400 to hedge the calls in the ratio of 3 calls to 1 put. Sensex & nifty managing to stay above 15000 & 4500 levels is a strong bullish signal for further up move during coming week. The only thing to be kept in mind on fridays trading is how much dow can surprise everyone by falling on friday night to impart a negative influence on monday morning.

 

[pranayk]

weekly markets analysis for week ending 07 august 09

if one remembers the news letter during last week of may, it was mentioned that during odd years, june month had always made a higher high than the may month and july month was even higher than june month. Although nifty failed to breach the june highs of 4693,cleaner index the sensex decisively breached the june highs of 15600 to move up till 15733 to close at 15670.it is just a matter of time only for nifty to breach june highs to move up further. As per statistical data from 1997 till 2009, although this month of august also is likely to be a +ve month being an odd year of 2009 one needs to be a bit cautious during the later part of august.
Most of the world markets are on the up move having breached their earlier highs of 2009 during last week. Dow having breached the critical level of 9175 on an intraday basis has not yet been able to close above it. On friday it closed at 9171 & most likely will breach it decisively very shortly to move higher up to breach the next critical level of 9711 to move towards the magic 10000 levels in coming months. However there will be many heart breaking mid week or week end falls in dow to trim the other world indices who are becoming bulkier day by day. However markets will move up & up only over the long term with routine corrections in between.
The only threat looming large over the markets is the likely hood of a mid august crash to be induced by astrological factors. Although similar sinister planetary links between sun, jupiter, saturn, neptune & rahu have created havoc in stock markets earlier that delivered lethal blow to the stock markets, yet there are a number of occasions when almost similar planetary links have pardoned the stock markets with just a minor blip. In fact moon & sweet venus not forming a nexus with the sinister combination may mitigate the severity to a large extent. So, let us hope for he best and assume that the few days from second week of august till end third week of august pass off smoothly with just normal corrections.
Last friday, sensex making a new high for 2009 after crossing june highs of 15600 to reach 15733 without nifty making it to new yearly highs looks a bit fishy for all those who feel that since sensex has made it nifty should make it. This is is the real bull trap set up for nifty f & o traders who were half jolted when nifty crashed intraday on friday to sub 4500 levels to move up at the end of the day. Although nifty will ultimately cross the yearly highs of 4693,but not without more such intraday jolts. In any case, nifty having decisively crossed & closed above the critical levels of 4480 & 4538, most likely will move to much higher levels in coming days grappling with minor corrections in between. A decisive close above the critical level of 4693 with volume may infuse new hopes for the bulls.

 

[pranayk]

weekly technicals for week ending 07 august 09


IN THE MONTHLY CHARTS ALMOST ALL THE MONTHLY INDICATORS HAVE GAINED FURTHER STRENGTH WITH JULY CLOSING AT 4636 COMPARED TO JUNE CLOSING OF 4292.SO UNLESS THERE IS A MAJOR CRASH IN AUGUST TO CLOSE AUGUST MONTH BELOW JUNE CLOSINGS OF 4292, THE MONTHLY INDICATORS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG MONTHLY BULLISH SIGNALS TO STRENGTHEN LONG TERM BULLISHNESS OF MARKETS. NIFTY SAFELY TRADING ABOVE BOTH 20 MONTH SMA AT 4141 & 50 MONTH SMA AT 3838 SINCE LAST 3 MONTHS IS A STRONG BULLISH SIGNAL FOR LONG TERM HEALTH OF MARKETS. ALTHOUGH DURING THE 4 TRADING DAYS BETWEEN 8TH JULY TILL 13 JULY NIFTY HAD BREACHED THE 20 MSMA TO REACH 3919,IT BOUNCED BACK BEFORE REACHING THE 50 MSMA WHICH IS A STRONG BULLISH SIGNAL AS FAR AS MONTHLY INDICATORS ARE CONCERNED. OTHER MONTHLY INDICATORS LIKE STOCHASTIC, RSI & MACD ARE LOOKING ROBUST FOR LONG TERM HEALTH OF MARKETS.
ALTHOUGH ALL THE IMPORTANT WEEKLY INDICATORS ARE NOT GENERATING BULLISH SIGNALS EVEN AFTER 3 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF RISE FROM THE LOWS OF 3919 TILL 4670, YET THE INDICATORS ARE ALSO NOT GENERATING ANY FORM OF OVER BOUGHT OR WEAK SIGNALS. THE STRONGEST BULLISH SIGNAL IS GENERATED BY WEEKLY SLOW STOCHASTIC AS WELL AS MACD INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER 200 POINT RISE IN NIFTY. WEEKLY RSI AT 67 & ROC AROUND 10 ARE GENERATING NEUTRAL SIGNALS THOSE MAY TURN UP FOR BULLISH ONES IN CASE NIFTY MOVES UP FURTHER SHARPLY. WEEKLY TREND INDICATOR ADX AT 40 ABOVE THE +VE DMI AT 31 AND -VE DMI AT 13 CLEARLY INDICATE BULLISH TREND. NIFTY SAFELY TRADING ABOVE ALL THE FIBONACCI WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES OF 5,8,13,21,34 THAT TOO EACH LOWER WMA HAVING CROSSED ITS NEXT HIGHER WMA AND EACH OF THESE LOOKING UP ARE STRONG BULLISH SIGNALS.
IN CASE OF DAILY INDICATORS, RSI AT 64 IS GIVING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR FURTHER UP MOVE HAVING BROKEN OUT OF THE FLAT & ON CROSSING 70 IT CAN GENERATE A SUPER BULLISH SIGNAL. TREND INDICATOR ADX AT 34 ABOVE +VE DMI AT 31 & -VE DMI AT 13 IS ANOTHER BULLISH SIGNAL. DAILY ROC AT 6 IS A SIGN OF LOSING MOMENTUM BUT SHOULD ROC TURN TO CROSS 10, IT ALSO CAN GENERATE STRONG BULLISH MOMENTUM. DAILY STOCHASTIC HAS FALLEN BELOW UPPER ZONE IS A DANGER SIGNAL BUT SHOULD IT TURN UP TO RE ENTER UPPER 80% ZONE, IT CAN GENERATE MEGA BULLISH SIGNAL. DAILY MACD CONTINUES TO GENERATE BULLISH SIGNAL WITH BOTH MACD & ITS SIGNAL LINE ABOVE THE ZERO LINE. SO OVER ALL DAILY INDICATORS ARE GENERATING MIXED TO BULLISH SIGNALS MEANING A DAY OR TWO OF PAUSE WITHIN AN OVERALL BULLISH WEEK.
THE MOST IMPORTANT INDICATOR IN THE DAILY & WEEKLY CHART IS THAT, A DECISIVE CROSS OVER & A CLOSE ABOVE 4693 WILL GENERATE A STRONG "REVERSE H & S PATTERN" THAT CAN TAKE NIFTY TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS AT A QUICKER PACE. IN CASE OF SENSEX ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN GENERATED, ONE HAS TO WAIT FOR A STRONG CLOSE ABOVE 18TH JUNE 08 HIGHS OF 15790 TO GET CONFIRMED SIGNALS FOR SHARP UP MOVE. HOWEVER, ONE MUST BE ABSOLUTELY SURE IN HIS MIND THAT BEFORE THIS SO CALLED CONFIRMED "REVERSE H & S FORMATION" IS FINALIZED, THERE WILL BE MANY HEART BREAKING SHARP DOWN TURNS TO MAKE EVERY ONE FORGET THE TERM REVERSE H & S FORMATION FOR SOME TIME AS HAD HAPPENED TO THE CASE OF H & S FORMATION & ELECTION VERDICT GAP FILL UP DRAMA DURING THE FALL FROM 6TH JULY TILL 13 JULY.

 

[pranayk]

elliott wave count for week ending 07 august 09

a fresh up move has started from 13th july lows of 3919 as 3rd wave of the fresh bull market. The 1st wave of the new bull market had commenced from the 6th march lows of 2539.1st wave having been completed at 12th june high of 4692 followed by abc zigzag correction till 13th july lows of 3919.the present 3rd wave has almost completed the 1st sub wave of which 4 sub sub waves are over on 29th july and we are now in the 5th up sub sub wave. This 3rd up wave from the lows of 3919 may traverse a distance of about 1.62 times the length of first wave which was of 2153, meaning the present 3rd up wave can move up till 7404 nifty levels. Even if this 3rd wave moves the distance equal to 1st wave, then this present 3rd wave may move up till 6072. Although any of these possibilities looks to be a bit ambitious, yet highly probable.

Till friday 31st july, nifty is still within the 1st up sub wave of this 3rd wave. Of this first sub wave from 13th july low of 3919, nifty has completed 1st sub sub wave till 16th july high of 4304, the 2nd down corrective sub wave was till 4206, the 3rd up sub sub wave was till 22nd july high of 4557. The 4th sub sub wave 3,3,5 flat was till 29th july low of 4422 from where the 5th sub sub wave has presumably started that can take nifty up till about 4747 levels around which this 1st sub wave of the 3rd up wave of the new bull market will be completed, to be followed by the 2nd sub wave correction on completion of which the largest up sub wave the 3rd sub wave of the 3rd up wave will start to take nifty at least towards 6072 levels as explained in the paragraph above.

 

[pranayk]

fibonacci levels for the week ending 07 august 09

we confine our fibonacci levels to the up move from 29th july lows of 4422.before this low of 4422, nifty had made the low of 4380 on 22nd july and moved up till 4600 on 28 july covering a distance of 220 points. So one can expect nifty to move up at least 1.382 times this distance from the 29th july low of 4422 that can take nifty up by at least 304 points towards 4726 levels.

 

[pranayk]

Weekly trading range for week ending 07 august 09

the broad trading range for nifty during the coming week could be 4747 on the higher side and last weeks lows of 4422 on the lower side. A decisive breach and close above 4747 can take nifty to next resistance level of 4788 which is the 61.8% retracement level from last bull market highs of 6357 to the last bear market lows of 2252.on the lower side, a decisive breach of 4422 can bring down nifty to the previous swing low of 4380 that can decide the fate of the present up move.

 

[dare2]

elliott wave count for week ending 07 august 09

a fresh up move has started from 13th july lows of 3919 as 3rd wave of the fresh bull market. The 1st wave of the new bull market had commenced from the 6th march lows of 2539.1st wave having been completed at 12th june high of 4692 followed by abc zigzag correction till 13th july lows of 3919.the present 3rd wave has almost completed the 1st sub wave of which 4 sub sub waves are over on 29th july and we are now in the 5th up sub sub wave. This 3rd up wave from the lows of 3919 may traverse a distance of about 1.62 times the length of first wave which was of 2153, meaning the present 3rd up wave can move up till 7404 nifty levels. Even if this 3rd wave moves the distance equal to 1st wave, then this present 3rd wave may move up till 6072. Although any of these possibilities looks to be a bit ambitious, yet highly probable.

Till friday 31st july, nifty is still within the 1st up sub wave of this 3rd wave. Of this first sub wave from 13th july low of 3919, nifty has completed 1st sub sub wave till 16th july high of 4304, the 2nd down corrective sub wave was till 4206, the 3rd up sub sub wave was till 22nd july high of 4557. The 4th sub sub wave 3,3,5 flat was till 29th july low of 4422 from where the 5th sub sub wave has presumably started that can take nifty up till about 4747 levels around which this 1st sub wave of the 3rd up wave of the new bull market will be completed, to be followed by the 2nd sub wave correction on completion of which the largest up sub wave the 3rd sub wave of the 3rd up wave will start to take nifty at least towards 6072 levels as explained in the paragraph above.

hi pranay.. could u attach some charts with this post??

 

[pranayk]

markets for 03 aug 09

the new day, new week & the new month opens with the optimism in the minds of many traders that since sensex has crossed the june highs of 15600, nifty must cross june highs of 4693.but the whole thing will depend on the condition of asian markets as well as ever low volume sluggish trading in sgx nifty. In the daily eod chart, a doji star generates fear that perhaps the up move is nearing the end. However a decisive close on monday above the high of the doji at 4570 may dispel such fears. Only a fall and close below 4525 can confirm the evening star formation for further falls.

In the hourly char above, a bullish engulfing pattern can be clearly seen as the last candle of friday. So on monday, a further up move above the fridays highs of 4670 can generate a strong up move nullifying the chances of the evening star candle formation. Secondly a decisive cross over of fridays highs of 4668 can take nifty out of the rectangular channel for further up move towards "andrew pitchforks" upper resistance zone of 4700+ levels as indicated by blue lines in the chart above.

In case of a fall, nifty most likely will find support around or above 4600 levels as can be seen in the hourly chart above.13 hour ema around 4588 that saw nifty bounce back from it on last hour of friday may provide strong support to nifty in case of a fall below 4600 levels. Secondly in the hourly chart above, although slow stochastic has fallen below the higher 80% zone, yet there are strong possibilities of it turning up to re enter the upper zone to generate strong bullish signal.

Nifty most likely has entered the 5th up sub sub wave from the lows of 4422 that may move to much higher levels above 4700, but can only be confirmed on a decisive breach and sustaining above previous high of 4693.for intraday trading on monday, one must look for an intraday correction similar to friday (can only hope if one gets it on monday also) to enter long positions for good gains.

 

[dare2]

markets for 03 aug 09

the new day, new week & the new month opens with the optimism in the minds of many traders that since sensex has crossed the june highs of 15600, nifty must cross june highs of 4693.but the whole thing will depend on the condition of asian markets as well as ever low volume sluggish trading in sgx nifty. In the daily eod chart, a doji star generates fear that perhaps the up move is nearing the end. However a decisive close on monday above the high of the doji at 4570 may dispel such fears. Only a fall and close below 4525 can confirm the evening star formation for further falls.

In the hourly char above, a bullish engulfing pattern can be clearly seen as the last candle of friday. So on monday, a further up move above the fridays highs of 4670 can generate a strong up move nullifying the chances of the evening star candle formation. Secondly a decisive cross over of fridays highs of 4668 can take nifty out of the rectangular channel for further up move towards "andrew pitchforks" upper resistance zone of 4700+ levels as indicated by blue lines in the chart above.

In case of a fall, nifty most likely will find support around or above 4600 levels as can be seen in the hourly chart above.13 hour ema around 4588 that saw nifty bounce back from it on last hour of friday may provide strong support to nifty in case of a fall below 4600 levels. Secondly in the hourly chart above, although slow stochastic has fallen below the higher 80% zone, yet there are strong possibilities of it turning up to re enter the upper zone to generate strong bullish signal.

Nifty most likely has entered the 5th up sub sub wave from the lows of 4422 that may move to much higher levels above 4700, but can only be confirmed on a decisive breach and sustaining above previous high of 4693.for intraday trading on monday, one must look for an intraday correction similar to friday (can only hope if one gets it on monday also) to enter long positions for good gains.

now this is wat is called analysis.. :thumb:

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 03 aug 09

the new week opens on a flat to milder note & the momentum is likely to pick up later during the day. Us markets were flat on monday, brazil gained .5% and uk ftse lost .5%. Asian markets have opened milder but will gain momentum as the day progresses.

For intraday trading on monday morning, one can expect a day similar to friday with a negative bias. Nse index has initial support around 4610 & then around 4600 levels. On the higher side it meets with resistance around 4656 followed by 4678 & the level of 4693 is not likely to be crossed on monday without any market boosting news & even it is crossed intraday, the level is likely to meet with heavy profit booking.

The sharp reactive up move during last hour of friday is likely to be compensated by a flat or initial down move on friday, only to move up later in the day. However if the markets rise initially, then expect the markets to behave similarly like friday. Since every one knows that 4693 is the break out point for nifty, be absolutely sure it is not going to be crossed easily during trading and can only be crossed by a surprise move or a gap up break out induced by over night us markets in case dow becomes highly bullish which again is most unlikely.

So one must keep his fingers crossed for a range bound move on monday within the fridays range. However the critical level of 4693 will ultimately be conquered for higher levels in coming days. One should expect asian markets to remain flat to mild & sgx nifty to remain negative with low volumes to induce a negative opening in indian markets at 9.55 a.m.