Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

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pranayk

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TODAYS MARKET BRIEF (from indiainfoline.com)

Indian markets ended in the red erasing previous days gains led by selling in the Oil & Gas, Metal, Auto and Power stocks. Markets cracked after Mainland China's top stock markets suffered their latest in a string of heavy falls Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 4.3% and the Shenzhen Composite Index ending 4.9% lower. Resource companies were among the loss-leaders, with Jiangxi Copper Co. falling 7.6% and Yunnan Copper moving 7% lower.

A Dow Jones Newswires reported quoted a Southwest Securities analyst as saying that amid a lack of other market cues, a drop in global commodities had triggered the fall in Chinese shares. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.8% -- its worst performance since November -- while the Shenzhen Composite dove 6.6%.


The BSE Sensex slipped 225 points or 1.5% at 14,809 after touching a high of 15,097 and a low of 14,684. The index opened at 15,079 against the previous close of 15,035. The NSE Nifty ended lower by 65 points to shut shop at 4,394.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan ended lower by 0.8% at 10,204 while Australia's S&P/ASX marginally slipped 0.2% at 4,373. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 1.7% at 19,954. Shanghai index in China declined 4.3% at 2,785.

In Europe, stocks were trading in red. The FTSE in the UK was down 0.9%. The DAX in Germany was down 1.2% and the CAC 40 index in France was down 0.8%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Oil & Gas index was the top loser, losing 2.7%, followed by the Metal index that was down 2.3%. The BSE Auto index down 2.1% and the BSE Power index was down 2%.

The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 1.1% and the BSE Small-Cap index fell by 0.6%.

Within the Sensex, the major losers were ACC, Reliance Infra, RCom, Grasim, Tata Steel, M&M and Reliance Industries. Among the major gainers were HDFC, HDFC Bank and L&T.

Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were Glenmark, Bharat Forge, Essar Oil, Balrampur Chini, RCF and Gujarat NRE Coke. On the other hand, gainers included Tulip Tele, IVRCL Infra, CESC, Bhushan Steel and GMDC.

Shares of Cipla erased early gains and ended lower by 2% to Rs259 after reports stated that the Delhi High Court dismissed German drug major Bayer Healthcares attempt to stop the drug regulator from giving marketing approval to Cipla for the generic version of Bayers patented cancer drug, Nexavar. The stock opened at Rs268 and made an intra-day high of Rs274 and a low of Rs257. Total traded volumes stood at 0.6mn shares.

Shares of Glenmark lost over 14% to Rs223 after Forest Laboratories, Inc. and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals SA Switzerland Once-daily treatment with Oglemilast did not show a statistically meaningful increase from baseline compared to placebo in the primary endpoint trough FEV1, a measure of pulmonary function that is decreased in patients with COPD.

Panacea Biotec was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs174 after the Company received an award notification worth Rs10.67bn for supply of its EasyFive (pentavalent vaccine), from UNICEF for years 2010, 2011 and 2012.

EasyFive is world's first fully liquid pentavalent vaccine introduced in India by Panacea Biotec in January 2005, which immunizes children against five dreadful diseases (Diptheria, Tetanus, wholecellPertussis, Hepatitis B and Hemophilus Influenza Type b) of early childhood.

Shares of PSL Ltd gained by 2.5% to Rs145 after the company announced that it won order worth Rs2.1bn from Gail India. The stock opened at Rs142 and made an intra-day high of Rs148.5 and a low of Rs139. Total traded volumes stood at 0.4mn shares.

Shares of Sun TV erased early gains and fell 1% to end at Rs272. ~1.4mn equity shares of the company were transacted in a block deal. The shares were traded at an average price of Rs275 on the National Stock Exchange.

The stock opened at Rs280 and made an intra-day high of Rs281.9 and a low of Rs272. Total traded volumes stood at 1.46mn shares on NSE.

Megasoft announced that the board of directors approved the sale and transfer of the BlueAlly division as a going concern to Trianz Inc., US, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Trianz Holdings Pvt Ltd, India.

The board of directors approved the price to be around US$13 to US$15mn. This is subject to the approval of the shareholders of the company.

Shares of Megasoft were locked at 20% upper circuit to end at Rs31.55. The stock opened at Rs26.7 and made an intra-day high of Rs31.55 and a low of Rs26.05. Total traded volumes stood at 2.9mn shares.



PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF YOU FIND THIS USEFUL.THIS MAY BE FOUND AT INDIAINFOLINE.COM
IF NOT, THIS WILL BE DISCONTINUED, AS THIS IS NOT MINE ANALYSIS

THANKS

Pranay
 
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Hi Pranay...

I came across your thread/posts very recently I liked them very much. Thanks for your wonderful analysis and observations.
I personally do not like the market manipulators/misguiders... particularly representatives of FII... But if you like to add India Info's report - Please do not post their entire report but a brief/summary will do...
Thanks once again...
CMAK
 
Sir,
ur analysis is excellent.I eagerly wait for in evening and particularly in morning.I am very disappointed when last 3-4 days u have stopped commenting.Anyway keep it up.
Thanks
 

pranayk

Well-Known Member
markets for 20 aug 09

again the critical level at 4350 to 4360 was protected by nifty in spite of dow future remaining 85 points negative during trading hours of indian markets. Markets continued to slide from the start but were highly volatile during the second half of the day. Most likely the the support around 4350 will be held as asian markets are ready for a good bounce on thursday.

For trading on thursday, critical level at 4430 will play a major role and if nifty is able to cross that level and sustain above it, then a sharp up move towards 4480 to 4490 can be seen. However failure to cross and sustain above 4430 can again pull down nifty towards retest of critical make or break level at 4350. Most likely 4350 will be protected this week after a minor breach to liquidate weaker hands.

Although daily indicators continue to become weak day by day, if one has a look at the hourly chart above, slow stochastic has bounced up from the lower zone indicating some up move on thursday. A +ve divergence in it also adds strength to nifty. As per short term andrew pitch fork indicator marked in blue, nifty has taken support at the lower fork and is ready for a bounce towards the median line. So, with ok asian cues in the morning, one can see a good bounce in nifty at least at the start to try to cross 4430 levels after which only further movement can be decided. Chinese index having slipped badly is ripe for a bounce so also hong kong index. However a big fall & a decisive breach of the make or break support at 4350 can signal a much bigger fall for nifty towards 4320 and then sub 4300 levels towards 4229 which may perhaps come next week
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON THURSDAY, NSE INDEX HAS A VERY STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4375 A BREACH OF WHICH MAY BRING IT DOWN TO 4355 TO 4350 WHICH SHOULD AGAIN SEE A GOOD BOUNCE. ON THE HIGHER SIDE 4412 IS THE FIRST HURDLE NIFTY HAS TO CROSS IN ORDER TO MOVE UP TOWARDS THE CRITICAL LEVEL AROUND 4430 THAT MAY SEE SOLID SHORT COVERING TO TAKE NIFTY UP TOWARDS PIVOT AT 4442 SUSTAINING ABOVE WHICH ONLY CAN TAKE NIFTY FURTHER UP TOWARDS 4464 OR EVEN TOWARDS WEDNESDAYS HIGH OF 4477 THAT MAY SEE SOLID PROFIT BOOKING. HAVING BEEN DECEIVED BY DECEPTIVE DOW FUTURES ON WEDNESDAY, ASIAN MARKETS MAY BOUNCE BACK WITH VENGEANCE ON THURSDAY.
 
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pranayk

Well-Known Member
morning update at 8 am 20 aug 09

dow which was indicating more than 80 points negative in futures during europeon trading hours was highly +ve last night to finally close at 61 points +ve. European markets were absolutely flat. Brazil was .7% up. Asian markets as expected have opened in the green & may remain +ve for the day having been deceived by dows highly negative futures yesterday. China, hong kong & singapore indices which had fallen a lot yesterday are likely to show good bounce.

For indian markets, expect a good opening & but the markets are again likely to be choppy and every stop loss if fed will be triggered. Nifty may find initial resistance around 4428 levels if successfully breached, then it can move up till 4455 or even 4477 levels. Yesterdays low around 4350 is a good support although nifty if it comes to this level, may slip a bit towards 4340 before bouncing back again. Traders may buy futures & calls around 4350 levels as well as boldly short 4200 puts if at all nifty reaches this level again. If nifty moves up & reaches wednesdays starting high of 4477 then quit longs and bought calls and buy puts here. Around this level also one can boldly write 4600 calls.
 

pranayk

Well-Known Member
markets for 21 aug 09

POSITIVE OVERNIGHT DOW COUPLED WITH STRONG ASIAN MARKETS INDUCED A GAP UP BULLISH OPENING FOR INDIAN MARKETS. NIFTY OPENED GAP UP HIGH ABOVE 4460 LEVELS AND REMAINED IN THE BAND OF 4485 TO 4455 FOR MOST OF THE TIME . A SPURT TOWARDS LATER HALF TO REACH TUESDAYS HIGHS OF 4494 INVITED HEAVY PROFIT BOOKING AND FINALLY NIFTY FELL TO 4444 LEVELS TO CLOSE AROUND THE LOWEST TRADING POINT OF THE DAY THAT EASILY SIGNIFY ANOTHER RISE ON FRIDAY AT LEAST AT THE START. AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN THERE WERE HARDLY ANY TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN STOCKS TOO. FUTURES & OPTIONS REMAINED SUBDUED AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN AND ONLY CARRIED OVER POSITIONS COULD BOOK ANY PROFIT.

SINCE LAST 4 TRADING DAYS NIFTY HAS SUCCESSFULLY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 50 DMA WHICH IS A BULLISH SIGN THAT WILL BE CONFIRMED ON A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE THE 20 DMA AROUND 4545 LEVELS. THE RISE ON THURSDAY HAS GENERATED THE HOPES OF FURTHER REVIVAL IN THE MARKETS AS THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY EOD CHARTS HAVE JUST STARTED TO LOOK UP AND ANOTHER UP MOVE ON FRIDAY CAN GENERATE THE HOPE OF A BULLISH COMING WEEK.

LAST WEEK ENDING 14TH AUGUST, NIFTY HAD A WEEKLY CLOSING AROUND 4580 LEVELS. SO, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A BOUNCE ON FRIDAY TO AT LEAST MOVE NEARER TO PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING LEVELS ALTHOUGH 4515 MAY BE A STRONG CLOSING RESISTANCE. IN THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, NIFTY FACES IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE AROUND 4494 LEVELS AND A DECISIVE CROSS OVER OF THIS CRITICAL LEVEL CAN CATAPULT IT TOWARDS 4525 TO 4535 LEVELS WHERE IT MEETS ANOTHER RESISTANCE LINE. IT HAS A STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4444 TO 4440 LEVELS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH CAN SURELY WEAKEN NIFTY FOR ANOTHER INTRADAY PLUNGE. INTRADAY INDICATOR SLOW STOCHASTIC ALTHOUGH DROOPING DOWNWARDS BELOW THE 80% ZONE DUE TO THE LAST HOUR FALL IN NIFTY, HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER SHARP UP MOVE AT THE START IT MAY TAKE UPWARD TURN TO GIVE BULLISH INDICATION.

THE CHART PATTERN FORMED DURING LAST 5 TRADING DAYS HAS CERTAIN DISTINCT FEATURES. FIRSTLY IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY PROTECT THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AROUND 4350 LEVELS THUS MAKING IT A STRONG BOTTOM FOR REMAINING DAYS OF AUGUST. SECONDLY BETWEEN 18TH AND 20 AUGUST IT HAS MADE A SOME SORT OF W FORMATION WITH BREAK OUT LINE AROUND 4494 TO 4500 LEVELS. SO, A DECISIVE BREAK OUT WITH VOLUME ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE AT 4500 CAN EASILY TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS 4600+ LEVELS EVEN SURPASSING THE RESISTANCE LINE AT 4530. MOST LIKELY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES WHICH HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN IN A WELL PLANNED & COORDINATED MANNER TO THREATEN ITS CRITICAL SUPPORT AT 1870, MAY BOUNCE UP WITH VIGOR & RENEWED VITALITY TO PROVIDE THAT REQUIRED IMPETUS TO NIFTY TO BREAK OUT OF 4500 LEVELS IF NOT THIS WEEK, CERTAINLY IT MAY COME TOWARDS LATER DAYS OF AUGUST MONTH MAY BE AFTER THE EXPIRY, THE DAYS TILL EXPIRY BEING RANGE BOUND TO HARASS THE OPTION BUYERS AND REWARD THE OPTION WRITERS.

FOR FRIDAYS TRADING, A DECISIVE DOWN SIDE BREACH OF 4440 MAY PLEASE THE BEARS TO SEE THE OPENING GAP OF THURSDAY GETTING FILLED TILL 4400 LEVELS AND A DECISIVE UPSIDE BREACH OF 4500 MAY PLEASE THE BULLS WHO CAN HOPE TO SEE 4535 TO 4550 LEVELS. A RANGE BOUND MOVE BETWEEN 444O TO 4500 MAY PLEASE THE OPTION WRITERS WHO DESPERATELY NEED MORE RANGE BOUND & FLAT MARKET TILL EXPIRY TO POCKET THE WRITTEN OPTION PREMIUM.
 
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