Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
- Start date
- Status
morning update at 8 am 21 aug 09
last night dow was up 72 points the 3rd consecutive day of rise which has now entirely retraced the 200 point fall on monday & is looking up now after generating the fear across the world markets that a big down side correction was due. Well, after 3 days of rise, it still has the friday night in its kitty to prove the point. European markets were up by 1.5% with uk ftse closing up by 1.4%.asian markets after a good rise yesterday have just opened mixed and may close mixed to +ve for the day.
For indian markets expect a flattish to mildly bullish opening. Initial range between 4444 to 4464 will play an important role. A decisive breach on any side may show a good move on that side. There is every possibility that the day has a good upside closing today to go on a buoyant note for the coming expiry week. A decisive breach of 4444 on the down side may pull nifty towards thursdays opening gap till 4422 but chances of breaching 4400 looks highly remote. Similarly a decisive cross over of 4464 can take nifty towards critical resistance around 4495 levels, a breach of which with good volume may generate a sharp up move induced by short covering. In any case, a close above 4515 can open the flood gates for another good bounce next week.
Traders may like to go light for the expiry week without any heavy carry over positions on friday & it would be wiser to start fresh on monday although the wind is blowing towards up side next week. Risky traders holding lower calls of 4400 may boldly write (short) 4600 & 4700 calls on rise of nifty towards 4500 or higher levels and if holding 4400 puts then also boldly write 4300 puts on intraday fall of markets towards 4400. Long term investors must quietly accumulate their choice stocks specially in power, oil & gas exploration & infra sectors for extremely good gains over the long term.
last night dow was up 72 points the 3rd consecutive day of rise which has now entirely retraced the 200 point fall on monday & is looking up now after generating the fear across the world markets that a big down side correction was due. Well, after 3 days of rise, it still has the friday night in its kitty to prove the point. European markets were up by 1.5% with uk ftse closing up by 1.4%.asian markets after a good rise yesterday have just opened mixed and may close mixed to +ve for the day.
For indian markets expect a flattish to mildly bullish opening. Initial range between 4444 to 4464 will play an important role. A decisive breach on any side may show a good move on that side. There is every possibility that the day has a good upside closing today to go on a buoyant note for the coming expiry week. A decisive breach of 4444 on the down side may pull nifty towards thursdays opening gap till 4422 but chances of breaching 4400 looks highly remote. Similarly a decisive cross over of 4464 can take nifty towards critical resistance around 4495 levels, a breach of which with good volume may generate a sharp up move induced by short covering. In any case, a close above 4515 can open the flood gates for another good bounce next week.
Traders may like to go light for the expiry week without any heavy carry over positions on friday & it would be wiser to start fresh on monday although the wind is blowing towards up side next week. Risky traders holding lower calls of 4400 may boldly write (short) 4600 & 4700 calls on rise of nifty towards 4500 or higher levels and if holding 4400 puts then also boldly write 4300 puts on intraday fall of markets towards 4400. Long term investors must quietly accumulate their choice stocks specially in power, oil & gas exploration & infra sectors for extremely good gains over the long term.
weekly markets analysis for week ending 28 august 09
the most volatile week in recent times ended on a +ve note on friday to bring in the hopes of a brighter expiry week. The china factor shattered the hopes of the bulls on monday who earlier having hammered the bears out of shape on 12th august had thought that the bulls are invincible but that was not to be as the bulls got deceived by the chinaman & were clean bowled on 17th august. The 6 trading days between 12th august and 19th aug were so fearful that it thrice threatened to breach the critical support around 4360 to 4350 levels but every time the bulls emerged victorious in protecting the support around 4350 levels & finally on friday 21 aug proved their supremacy over the bears in bouncing back strongly from the low of 4400 to reach critical level of 4535 to close at the face saving 4529, with a very minor weekly fall of only around 1% from its previous weeks close of 4580.
The up move on friday 21 aug in indian & other world markets, not only proved that the indian markets have completely digested the fear of drought & bird flu but it also proved wrong many markets pundits in u.s who were predicting a sudden 25% fall in world markets. So also were the astrologers disappointed who had predicted the mega fall around 14th august and all had to be contented with the face saving fall around 17th aug induced by china factor. Well, still one must keep the fingers crossed as chinese markets as well as dow still have enough of sinister strength in their kitty to spring a nasty surprise any time just out of the blue, when everything just starts to look fine for the bulls.
The 140 point rise of nifty on friday from the intraday lows of 4400 has generated an euphoria in the minds of traders who are straight eyeing for the make or break critical level of 4619 in a day or two. If bulls manage to close above 4619 which although looks highly probable, then the recent 4th august highs of 4731 will no longer remain to be the resistance for a long long time & would get transformed into a good support level for any mega fall from above 5000 levels. However if nifty fails to decisively cross & close above the critical level at 4619, then a big fall to have another attempt at the critical support around 4350 can not be ruled out & if this happens, there is a high probability of breaching the critical support of 4350 this time for 4000 levels towards making a larger flat. However this can only happen if there is another deceptive china or dow crash to rejuvenate u.s bearish pundits and astrologers. So, bulls need enough gas from reliance industries to fuel the up move to close and sustain above the critical make or break resistance at 4619 level so as to cross august highs of 4731 by early september if not by expiry or end august.
the most volatile week in recent times ended on a +ve note on friday to bring in the hopes of a brighter expiry week. The china factor shattered the hopes of the bulls on monday who earlier having hammered the bears out of shape on 12th august had thought that the bulls are invincible but that was not to be as the bulls got deceived by the chinaman & were clean bowled on 17th august. The 6 trading days between 12th august and 19th aug were so fearful that it thrice threatened to breach the critical support around 4360 to 4350 levels but every time the bulls emerged victorious in protecting the support around 4350 levels & finally on friday 21 aug proved their supremacy over the bears in bouncing back strongly from the low of 4400 to reach critical level of 4535 to close at the face saving 4529, with a very minor weekly fall of only around 1% from its previous weeks close of 4580.
The up move on friday 21 aug in indian & other world markets, not only proved that the indian markets have completely digested the fear of drought & bird flu but it also proved wrong many markets pundits in u.s who were predicting a sudden 25% fall in world markets. So also were the astrologers disappointed who had predicted the mega fall around 14th august and all had to be contented with the face saving fall around 17th aug induced by china factor. Well, still one must keep the fingers crossed as chinese markets as well as dow still have enough of sinister strength in their kitty to spring a nasty surprise any time just out of the blue, when everything just starts to look fine for the bulls.
The 140 point rise of nifty on friday from the intraday lows of 4400 has generated an euphoria in the minds of traders who are straight eyeing for the make or break critical level of 4619 in a day or two. If bulls manage to close above 4619 which although looks highly probable, then the recent 4th august highs of 4731 will no longer remain to be the resistance for a long long time & would get transformed into a good support level for any mega fall from above 5000 levels. However if nifty fails to decisively cross & close above the critical level at 4619, then a big fall to have another attempt at the critical support around 4350 can not be ruled out & if this happens, there is a high probability of breaching the critical support of 4350 this time for 4000 levels towards making a larger flat. However this can only happen if there is another deceptive china or dow crash to rejuvenate u.s bearish pundits and astrologers. So, bulls need enough gas from reliance industries to fuel the up move to close and sustain above the critical make or break resistance at 4619 level so as to cross august highs of 4731 by early september if not by expiry or end august.
weekly technicals for week ending 28 august 09
the indicators in the monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. Monthly rsi having moved up to 57 levels is signaling further up move. The strongest monthly signal being 8 month moving average coming from below 13 month moving average to cross it to move above it, is the strongest long term bullish signal which is occurring first time after sept 04.all in all markets are looking extremely bullish for the long term.
In the weakly charts, the indicators do not look encouraging after the lower weekly closing of nifty. Weekly stochastic looks dangerous for further falls if the week ahead does not see a good bullish closing. Weekly rsi although at 62 is drooping downwards. Weekly macd and adx are also not looking encouraging. Weekly roc at 1.2 negative and weekly cci drooping downwards are not at all encouraging signals in the weekly charts. However since the markets are in a flat range, the bearish signals by the weekly indicators lose their significance.
However amidst these dull weekly signals from the weekly indicators above, the weekly moving averages depict highly bullish signals.20 week moving average at 4155 having breached 34 wma at 3626, has breached 50 wma at 3484 & 200 wma at 3939. Further strength comes from the cross over of long term exponential moving averages where 50 week exponential average now at 3898 has decisively crossed 200 wema at 3688 & moving to breach 100 wema now at 3924. These cross overs are taking place for the first time after june 2003 around which time the previous bull market had started. So, long term investors should boldly accumulate on every decline for excellent gains over the long term.
Contrast to the weekly indicators above, the same indicators in the daily charts have started to generate bullish signals. Daily stochastic has turned up before entering the lower zone. Daily macd although looks shaky, is still above the neutral line. Daily roc has moves up from negative to +1. Daily rsi has turned up from sub 50 levels to 53 level. Interestingly the fridays range of nifty was between 4400 to 4539 and within this range has all the daily moving averages of 5, 8,13,20,34 & 50 with 20 at the top of the range at 4539 and 50 dma at the bottom around 4400.so another day or two of close above 4539 can surely indicate mega bullish signals, but another fall during the week to slip below 4400 levels which although looks most unlikely, if it happens, may spell real danger for nifty. So technically, one can expect a bullish week with the expiry around 4600 or higher levels.
the indicators in the monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. Monthly rsi having moved up to 57 levels is signaling further up move. The strongest monthly signal being 8 month moving average coming from below 13 month moving average to cross it to move above it, is the strongest long term bullish signal which is occurring first time after sept 04.all in all markets are looking extremely bullish for the long term.
In the weakly charts, the indicators do not look encouraging after the lower weekly closing of nifty. Weekly stochastic looks dangerous for further falls if the week ahead does not see a good bullish closing. Weekly rsi although at 62 is drooping downwards. Weekly macd and adx are also not looking encouraging. Weekly roc at 1.2 negative and weekly cci drooping downwards are not at all encouraging signals in the weekly charts. However since the markets are in a flat range, the bearish signals by the weekly indicators lose their significance.
However amidst these dull weekly signals from the weekly indicators above, the weekly moving averages depict highly bullish signals.20 week moving average at 4155 having breached 34 wma at 3626, has breached 50 wma at 3484 & 200 wma at 3939. Further strength comes from the cross over of long term exponential moving averages where 50 week exponential average now at 3898 has decisively crossed 200 wema at 3688 & moving to breach 100 wema now at 3924. These cross overs are taking place for the first time after june 2003 around which time the previous bull market had started. So, long term investors should boldly accumulate on every decline for excellent gains over the long term.
Contrast to the weekly indicators above, the same indicators in the daily charts have started to generate bullish signals. Daily stochastic has turned up before entering the lower zone. Daily macd although looks shaky, is still above the neutral line. Daily roc has moves up from negative to +1. Daily rsi has turned up from sub 50 levels to 53 level. Interestingly the fridays range of nifty was between 4400 to 4539 and within this range has all the daily moving averages of 5, 8,13,20,34 & 50 with 20 at the top of the range at 4539 and 50 dma at the bottom around 4400.so another day or two of close above 4539 can surely indicate mega bullish signals, but another fall during the week to slip below 4400 levels which although looks most unlikely, if it happens, may spell real danger for nifty. So technically, one can expect a bullish week with the expiry around 4600 or higher levels.
Last edited:
Reverse h &s formation between 17th & 21st august in the hourly chart above with its head around 4353 & neck line around 4495 having been decisively breached on friday with good volume, under normal circumstances should take nifty up by around 141 points from the neck line towards 4636 levels by about wednesday. One has to just wait & see how it fans out, as many such earlier h&s formations have ended in reverse action only.
elliott wave count for week ending 28 august 09
we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. Most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on wednesday 12 aug lows of 4360 or 17th aug low of 4353 and the 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started fom 21st aug 09. A decisive cross and close above 4619 will confirm that the 3rd sub wave of the 3rd up wave is on which can take nifty easily above 5000 levels by end september 09.
There could be another case, where the new bull market after the completion of the 1st up wave at the 12th june high of 4693, the 2nd corrective wave is still on as a 3, 3, 5 bigger flat with 1st set of 3 down waves completed at the 13th july low of 3919, the 2nd set of 3 up waves completed on 4th aug high of 4731 & presently we are in the final down leg of the flat. After completion of the 1st down sub leg till 4360, 2nd sub leg flat may be on which will be confirmed if nifty without crossing 4619 falls below 4350 levels. In that case nifty can fall all the way till 3919 level to complete the last leg of the flat.
we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. Most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on wednesday 12 aug lows of 4360 or 17th aug low of 4353 and the 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started fom 21st aug 09. A decisive cross and close above 4619 will confirm that the 3rd sub wave of the 3rd up wave is on which can take nifty easily above 5000 levels by end september 09.
There could be another case, where the new bull market after the completion of the 1st up wave at the 12th june high of 4693, the 2nd corrective wave is still on as a 3, 3, 5 bigger flat with 1st set of 3 down waves completed at the 13th july low of 3919, the 2nd set of 3 up waves completed on 4th aug high of 4731 & presently we are in the final down leg of the flat. After completion of the 1st down sub leg till 4360, 2nd sub leg flat may be on which will be confirmed if nifty without crossing 4619 falls below 4350 levels. In that case nifty can fall all the way till 3919 level to complete the last leg of the flat.
weekly trading range for week ending 28 august 09
the broad trading range for the week may be 4466 on the lower side and 4619 on the higher side. A decisive breach of 4466 may bring down nifty towards 4438 or even make or break point at 4408 levels. On the higher side a decisive breach and close above 4619 may take nifty past the critical resistance around 4731 towards important fibonacci resistance levels of 4777.
the broad trading range for the week may be 4466 on the lower side and 4619 on the higher side. A decisive breach of 4466 may bring down nifty towards 4438 or even make or break point at 4408 levels. On the higher side a decisive breach and close above 4619 may take nifty past the critical resistance around 4731 towards important fibonacci resistance levels of 4777.
Hi Pranay,
I am following ur views n updates from th past few months and found extremly gud and helpful.
I need your advice for the below trade.
I was holding 4500/4600 nifty aug calls till friday morning but took chance of catching same calls at lower levels, so sold these positions and bought 4200/4400aug pe and thought of squaring off put options at lower levels and rebuy call options. But after that nifty went up and dint get the chance of squaring off puts. Now I am in huge loss due to buying of these put options. Wat u recommend to safeguard my invested amount in puts.
I am luking fwd for ur advice. Please help.
Thanks in Advance...
Prabhanshu
I am following ur views n updates from th past few months and found extremly gud and helpful.
I need your advice for the below trade.
I was holding 4500/4600 nifty aug calls till friday morning but took chance of catching same calls at lower levels, so sold these positions and bought 4200/4400aug pe and thought of squaring off put options at lower levels and rebuy call options. But after that nifty went up and dint get the chance of squaring off puts. Now I am in huge loss due to buying of these put options. Wat u recommend to safeguard my invested amount in puts.
I am luking fwd for ur advice. Please help.
Thanks in Advance...
Prabhanshu
Last edited:
Hi Pranay,
I've only recently started following your updates and they are fantastic. Thank you and please keep them up.
One thing, you seem very bullish, yet there is little to drive the market right now. US say recovery is happening but will be slow and volatile, China is having it's problems and Indian markets are seen to be fairly valued and we are looking to next year to see if profits are growing.
Do you think that we will have some sideways consolidation before a big bull move or do you think that the move will come in anticipation of recovery and increasing profits?
All the best, and thanks again.
I've only recently started following your updates and they are fantastic. Thank you and please keep them up.
One thing, you seem very bullish, yet there is little to drive the market right now. US say recovery is happening but will be slow and volatile, China is having it's problems and Indian markets are seen to be fairly valued and we are looking to next year to see if profits are growing.
Do you think that we will have some sideways consolidation before a big bull move or do you think that the move will come in anticipation of recovery and increasing profits?
All the best, and thanks again.
- Status
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Morning Star | Technical Analysis | 0 | |
| R | What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning | General Trading & Investing Chat | 2 | |
| A | How to avoid morning gaps ? | Trading Diary | 5 | |
| S | A GREAT Morning to All | Introductions | 0 | |
| M | good morning traderji.com | Introductions | 0 |
Similar threads
-
-
What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning
- Started by Rash123456789
- Replies: 2
-
-
-