Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

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pranayk

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morning update at 8 am 27 aug 09

last night us markets closed absolutely flat. Brazil was up by .6%.european markets were down by about .5%.asian markets have opened weak to mixed but may remain flat to mixed for the day exerting a negative influence on indian markets at the start.

For indian markets, being expiry day, it is wiser to avoid fresh trading till 1 pm. Most of your trades even though may look attractive before the entry, may just go the other way after your entry button is clicked. Traders are advised to trade stock & nifty futures of sept series only around the extremities of its daily trading range from its pivot point. Quit at tight stop loss after the support or resistance breached, to pick up again at distant levels to see it giving you profit any time before end. The expiry day being a highly unpredictable day, the less the trade the better it is for future traders.

In case of a fall, long term investors may quietly accumulate cairn ,cipla, biocon , unitech & suzlon, the 5 future jewels for long term purpose. Forget fundamentals or technicals in these & just accumulate these on every fall and forget for next 2 years to see at least 4 times gain in all these 5 jewels.
 

findvikas

Well-Known Member
@Class... Operators are big guys who drive the market and eat the money of poor, small investors :(
They are primarily FIIs and other institutions with tons of money who buy to start a rally and then wait for a good time to pull back the money to bring it all on floor :)

Lets get ready for a warm welcome of September on a RED floor, breaching 4700 is not that easy. US struggled to stay in green and closed with a marginal 0.01% green, Asia (Nikkei & Shanghai) is down since opening and only Taiwan managed to show some green so far. Let's wait for others Asians markets to open. If no good performance by Asian market then I will open short in the opening for 15minutes.
 

findvikas

Well-Known Member
morning update at 8 am 27 aug 09

last night us markets closed absolutely flat. Brazil was up by .6%.european markets were down by about .5%.asian markets have opened weak to mixed but may remain flat to mixed for the day exerting a negative influence on indian markets at the start.

For indian markets, being expiry day, it is wiser to avoid fresh trading till 1 pm. Most of your trades even though may look attractive before the entry, may just go the other way after your entry button is clicked. Traders are advised to trade stock & nifty futures of sept series only around the extremities of its daily trading range from its pivot point. Quit at tight stop loss after the support or resistance breached, to pick up again at distant levels to see it giving you profit any time before end. The expiry day being a highly unpredictable day, the less the trade the better it is for future traders.

In case of a fall, long term investors may quietly accumulate cairn ,cipla, biocon , unitech & suzlon, the 5 future jewels for long term purpose. Forget fundamentals or technicals in these & just accumulate these on every fall and forget for next 2 years to see at least 4 times gain in all these 5 jewels.

What a timings... the moment I started to type your post wasn't visible :)
Pranayk.. what are your views on PRAJ.. my analysis says it should cross above 125 in September if broader market support.. ?
 

pranayk

Well-Known Member
Hi Pranayk,
As ever, thanks for a great update.

Who do you mean when you say the 'operators'? Who are they?

Thanks again.
Believe that most of us have heard of stock market operators. They are known by many different names and they are constantly the blame for our financial losses. In some parts of the world, they are known as sharks, syndicates, big bosses, speculators, liars, cheaters or stock market manipulators. Some of us cheer their existence and their operations while some cursed them as if they are the culprits to our financial ruins. Are they our friends or foes? As the famous saying goes, know thy foes and you will have the upper hand in battle. In this post, I will challenge and dare you to swim with the sharks and eat from the crumbs of their feeds and not to be their feed. Here I would like to bring out some of my personal thoughts on this question that most newbie has.


Ok, here is the short answer. Yes, you are right. They existed and their operations are hidden from most people especially the newbie in these financial markets. I believe if we know them and how they operate, we could actually move along with them. In fact, the whole purpose of technical analysis is to determine the balance of demand and supply and the stock market operators are some of the powerful and rich individuals or groups with much buying and selling power. If we are able to track their movement, we will be able to profit from their operations. However, if we are ignorant of their existence, we could be their next meal.


Basic facts of stock market operators are listed below for your reference.
They work individually or in a group.
They rely on the market trends to help them in their mission.
The general publics are their big customers.
They together work with the public listed company owners or insiders.
They have a main mission objective to accomplish.
The bulk of their operation revolved around the accumulation and the distribution of stocks from / to the general publics.
They are rich and powerful figures but they are also humans that have emotions like all of us.
They have extensive credit facilities and lower transaction costs than the retail investors.
They do make mistakes like any one of us. Their mistake costs millions in dollars.
Market news, stock market analyst, corporate announcements, word of mouth advertising, price bidding and order queues are some of their tricks and tools that they used to achieve their main objective.
They dont try to pick the bottom or the top like most retail investors do. Again, some of them try to do this and it costs them much sorrow and dismay.
They do attempt to manipulate the chart to trick the chartist whether you like it or not.
They are both the buyer and seller in the queue order at any given time.
They are not doing charity work. They existed to make your money.


It is important to understand them well as they are big volume buyers and sellers. They can tilt the balance of demand and supply. Understanding the above traits of stock market operators will help to clear some of the myths that we have of them. Remember, they are humans like us. Some of the above points deserved to be elaborated further to bring out the secrets of trading methodologies that we will employ in our technical analysis.

Primary market trends are very important to their success and failures. If they judge wrongly on this, they could go bust easily as the power of leveraging will work against them. Remember this, they cannot fight against the trends and they dont have the strength to do so. Dont ever think that they can swim against the tides.

If their mission objective is to acquire stocks, they might push down the prices to cause temporary market panics to squeeze out the stocks out from the speculators and investors and this is especially true in certain countries where short-selling is not allowed. The success of this technique will depends on what sort of people that are holding the stocks. This will get rid of the intraday and short term traders. However, they will try to maintain the prices around a certain range as to keep the sellers motivated. Usually the public listed company owners and insider will work in tandem to collect the shares from the general public. After they exhausted the fearful speculators and investors, they will then turn their eyes to the stronger speculators and investors by pushing up the prices higher to catch their interests.

If their mission is to distribute stocks, they will push up the stock prices to catch the attention of speculators and investors. They will work with market analyst to create beautiful pictures of the company prospects. They will work with the public listed company owners and insiders to create scarcity of stocks. At this moment of time, they will also announce all the good news while pushing up the stock prices. They will queue up as buyers and sellers in the order queue. They will buy their own stocks to create volume to entice the crowd to follow. As they bid up and down the prices, stocks were distributed without the awareness of the general public.

I believe that this write-up will increase our trading knowledge and make us a wiser trader. I will continue to write of how we can profit from their operation in future posts whenever I managed to get my time organized.
 
Hi Pranay...

Really a wonderful piece of analyzing on the **** misguiders of stock market. With due respect to your writing I just want to add my view...

First, A single person (manipulator) is not actually moves the market that hard in any direction.

But FII/DII both who are running business on other peoples money are the real culprits. We can see their frequently on tv screens with lots of blah blah blah.....
If they lose money they are not worried as it is not their money. If they gain, they are the market visioneries. All tv channels feel proud to invite them to share their (mis)guiding views...

Thanks
CMAK
 

pranayk

Well-Known Member
markets for 28 aug 09

so, on the expiry day, nse index managed to cross 4700 but again failed to close above it, although last half hour averaging brought it down to close at 4688. Both the futures of august and sept crossed 4700 and sept future closed above 4700 at 4705. One thing is certain that day by day the up move is getting laborious and any time a sharp decline may be expected after which both sensex & nifty will muster enough strength to breach and close above the barrier of 16002 & 4731 perhaps during early september.

Last friday, nifty had the weekly closings around 4528 levels so there is every possibility of nifty to come down a bit to have a reasonable difference from last weeks closing so as to avoid giving an entirely bullish picture for next week although technically even after 6 days of consecutive rise, the indices are all set to breach the 4th august highs of 16002 & 4731. Another thing worth noting is, during the first week of august itself, the indices breached the july highs. So, it may be a bit tough for the indices to breach 4th august high of 16002 & 4731 in the remaining days of august month, perhaps this may be postponed to first week of september.

Technically, if one has a look at the hourly chart above, in spite of negative divergence from slow stochastic, nifty is inching up day by day that forewarns of a unexpected fall although in the daily eod charts the indicators are in no way showing the signs of negative divergence and in fact are giving robust bullish signals .the blue line indicator andrews pitchforks median line moves up towards 4750 levels as days go by and it attracts nifty towards it, and in case of a fall in nifty, the lower fork around 4600 levels should provide strong support. For intraday trading on friday, nifty has strong support around 4666 to 4650 levels followed by 4633 where buying support should emerge. A decisive breach of 4633 only can weaken nifty to slide towards sub 4600 levels.

Us markets after having 6 consecutive days of rise are showing signs of fatigue that can have a negative influence on world markets which should induce the expected correction for a day or two in indian markets to start fresh with vigor from early september.
 
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