Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
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Dow & S&P are towards steady recovery.. DOW already in green and US should close around .5% green except NASDAQ which might end around 0.1%
All the 2m,5m,30m,daily & even weekly giving further up move.
Most likely short term outcomes:
As long as we close S&P over 1020, the market is likely to consolidate with a positive bias followed by another push to the upside or move up immediately with the next resistance level somewhere in the 1040-1050 area
If we close positive under 1020, the market is likely to consolidate and continue testing 1020 resistance
If we close negative, a retest of 1000 and possibly 980 is likely
All the 2m,5m,30m,daily & even weekly giving further up move.
Most likely short term outcomes:
As long as we close S&P over 1020, the market is likely to consolidate with a positive bias followed by another push to the upside or move up immediately with the next resistance level somewhere in the 1040-1050 area
If we close positive under 1020, the market is likely to consolidate and continue testing 1020 resistance
If we close negative, a retest of 1000 and possibly 980 is likely
morning update at 8 am 28 aug 09
on thursday night us markets after initial fall bounced back to continue with the upward march for the 7th day in a row with dow gaining by 37 points & s&p500 reaching 1030. Brazil closed flat with a .1% loss. European markets were generally down by .5%. Asian markets have opened mildly up and are likely to close mixed to flat.
For indian markets, expect a range bound move within yesterdays range with a slight negative bias towards end. As indices have already gone up for 6 days in a row every up move above 4700 will generate the fear that perhaps correction will start & traders will start to book profit above 4700 levels. However, even if an intraday correction comes, it may not be a big fall to breach 4650 to 4633 levels and every correction to these levels will be bought into. A big correction can only be induced by us markets if it happens there on friday night so as to trap others on monday morning.
It would be wiser to avoid any carry over of long future positions for monday. For intraday trading on friday, nifty has strong support around 4646 levels and resistance around 4717 levels. Any further fall in tatasteel should be used to buy gradually as it will give the sharpest bounce after the well planned & coordinated discussion by the media on its quarterly results are over.
on thursday night us markets after initial fall bounced back to continue with the upward march for the 7th day in a row with dow gaining by 37 points & s&p500 reaching 1030. Brazil closed flat with a .1% loss. European markets were generally down by .5%. Asian markets have opened mildly up and are likely to close mixed to flat.
For indian markets, expect a range bound move within yesterdays range with a slight negative bias towards end. As indices have already gone up for 6 days in a row every up move above 4700 will generate the fear that perhaps correction will start & traders will start to book profit above 4700 levels. However, even if an intraday correction comes, it may not be a big fall to breach 4650 to 4633 levels and every correction to these levels will be bought into. A big correction can only be induced by us markets if it happens there on friday night so as to trap others on monday morning.
It would be wiser to avoid any carry over of long future positions for monday. For intraday trading on friday, nifty has strong support around 4646 levels and resistance around 4717 levels. Any further fall in tatasteel should be used to buy gradually as it will give the sharpest bounce after the well planned & coordinated discussion by the media on its quarterly results are over.
weekly markets analysis for week ending 4th september 09
the month of august ended with highly bullish feeling for the coming month of september. Although the breach of critical level of 4731 by nifty without the cleaner index sensex breaching 16002 on friday looks to be slightly deceptive, yet the markets look distinctly bullish for much higher levels in coming days. The way indian markets overcame scare of swine flu, rain fall scarcity, chinese crash & rumors of sudden 25% crash in us markets in august due to bad planetary transit etc etc, clearly shows that the markets follow a cycle of their own & the major cycle is up & up only with very minor corrective down cycles in between
after the rise to the top of 4688 on 10 june, nifty was continuously making tops around 4700 levels & starting from 10th june top of 4688, nifty has made 10 daily tops around 4700 levels the highest being 4744 on friday 28 aug. Technically more the number of knocks around the resistance level & more time the indices take to consolidate, the more powerful up move takes place once the resistance is decisively breached. Most likely after a small correction during early part of first week of sept, the indices will finally break out and close above the critical resistance of 16002 & 4744 to sharply move towards may 08 highs of 17735 & 5299 by end of this year with minor halts at 6th june 08 high of 4746,impotant fibonacci level of 4788,29th may 08 high of 4957 & 16th may 08 high of 5167.
The level around 4350 has become a new strong bottom for nifty leaving behind earlier bottom of 3919.this new bottom around 4350 levels not only will prevent any big fall below 4350 but also will act as a reliable spring board for bulls & long term investors to pour in more capital for long term gains. For aggressive traders, even the high of the gap at 4582 should give them a strong base to remain long. The early half of the coming week till wednesday may perhaps see a mild correction or flat formation after which say from thursday onwards the upward journey is likely to continue towards much higher levels. Starting from the previous bull market from 2003 onwards till 2008 end, out of 6 september months, only 2003 & 2008 have seen a weaker september month closings, although in 2003 september month high was higher than august high. So under normal circumstances, one should see a much better month of september this year.
the month of august ended with highly bullish feeling for the coming month of september. Although the breach of critical level of 4731 by nifty without the cleaner index sensex breaching 16002 on friday looks to be slightly deceptive, yet the markets look distinctly bullish for much higher levels in coming days. The way indian markets overcame scare of swine flu, rain fall scarcity, chinese crash & rumors of sudden 25% crash in us markets in august due to bad planetary transit etc etc, clearly shows that the markets follow a cycle of their own & the major cycle is up & up only with very minor corrective down cycles in between
after the rise to the top of 4688 on 10 june, nifty was continuously making tops around 4700 levels & starting from 10th june top of 4688, nifty has made 10 daily tops around 4700 levels the highest being 4744 on friday 28 aug. Technically more the number of knocks around the resistance level & more time the indices take to consolidate, the more powerful up move takes place once the resistance is decisively breached. Most likely after a small correction during early part of first week of sept, the indices will finally break out and close above the critical resistance of 16002 & 4744 to sharply move towards may 08 highs of 17735 & 5299 by end of this year with minor halts at 6th june 08 high of 4746,impotant fibonacci level of 4788,29th may 08 high of 4957 & 16th may 08 high of 5167.
The level around 4350 has become a new strong bottom for nifty leaving behind earlier bottom of 3919.this new bottom around 4350 levels not only will prevent any big fall below 4350 but also will act as a reliable spring board for bulls & long term investors to pour in more capital for long term gains. For aggressive traders, even the high of the gap at 4582 should give them a strong base to remain long. The early half of the coming week till wednesday may perhaps see a mild correction or flat formation after which say from thursday onwards the upward journey is likely to continue towards much higher levels. Starting from the previous bull market from 2003 onwards till 2008 end, out of 6 september months, only 2003 & 2008 have seen a weaker september month closings, although in 2003 september month high was higher than august high. So under normal circumstances, one should see a much better month of september this year.
weekly technicals for week ending 4th september 09
the indicators in the monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. In the monthly charts of sensex and nifty, both have moved and closed above the august 08 highs of 15577 & 4650 & are ready for a sharp up move towards may 08 highs of 17535 & 5299 in quick time. Monthly rsi having moved up to 60 levels is signaling further up move. The strongest monthly signal being 8 month moving average coming from below 13 month moving average to cross it to move above it, is the strongest long term bullish signal which is occurring first time after sept 04.all the monthly indicators are generating robust bullish signals which are extremely bullish for the long term health of the markets.
Both sensex & nifty having closed at 15922 & 4732 compared to its previous weeks closings of 15240 & 4529, have gained more than 4% during the week. The weekly indicators which were giving doubtful signals last week, have stared to generate strong bullish signals with weekly roc reaching nearly 10 levels from last weeks near zero level. Weekly rsi has moved up to 65.slow stochastic is showing the signs of turning up from below the upper 80% zone to move into the upper zone again. Weekly adx,macd &cci are indicating a lot of up move in store for the indices. All the moving averages smoothly moving one above the other are indicative of sharp up move for the indices in coming weeks. All in all, the weekly indicators point towards further up move in coming weeks and once both sensex and nifty move up to cross & sustain above the fibonaccy levels of 16180 & 4788, one can see accelerated momentum in the markets to move towards much higher levels in quick time.
7 days of consecutive rise in the indices have taken some of the daily indicators towards over bought zone that may see 2 or 3 days of mild correction or flat formation around the present levels before decisively breaking out of the 16200 & 4788 levels. Confluence of fibonacci 8,13 & 21 dmas between 4560 & 4600 makes this zone a strong support zone for entering long positions in case of a correction into this zone. So, all in all, having gone up for 7 days in a row, one can expect a mild correction during the first half of the week to be followed by a sharp up move perhaps from thursday onwards.
the indicators in the monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. In the monthly charts of sensex and nifty, both have moved and closed above the august 08 highs of 15577 & 4650 & are ready for a sharp up move towards may 08 highs of 17535 & 5299 in quick time. Monthly rsi having moved up to 60 levels is signaling further up move. The strongest monthly signal being 8 month moving average coming from below 13 month moving average to cross it to move above it, is the strongest long term bullish signal which is occurring first time after sept 04.all the monthly indicators are generating robust bullish signals which are extremely bullish for the long term health of the markets.
Both sensex & nifty having closed at 15922 & 4732 compared to its previous weeks closings of 15240 & 4529, have gained more than 4% during the week. The weekly indicators which were giving doubtful signals last week, have stared to generate strong bullish signals with weekly roc reaching nearly 10 levels from last weeks near zero level. Weekly rsi has moved up to 65.slow stochastic is showing the signs of turning up from below the upper 80% zone to move into the upper zone again. Weekly adx,macd &cci are indicating a lot of up move in store for the indices. All the moving averages smoothly moving one above the other are indicative of sharp up move for the indices in coming weeks. All in all, the weekly indicators point towards further up move in coming weeks and once both sensex and nifty move up to cross & sustain above the fibonaccy levels of 16180 & 4788, one can see accelerated momentum in the markets to move towards much higher levels in quick time.
7 days of consecutive rise in the indices have taken some of the daily indicators towards over bought zone that may see 2 or 3 days of mild correction or flat formation around the present levels before decisively breaking out of the 16200 & 4788 levels. Confluence of fibonacci 8,13 & 21 dmas between 4560 & 4600 makes this zone a strong support zone for entering long positions in case of a correction into this zone. So, all in all, having gone up for 7 days in a row, one can expect a mild correction during the first half of the week to be followed by a sharp up move perhaps from thursday onwards.
elliott wave count for week ending 4th september 09
we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started.
Most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on 12 aug lows of 4360 or 17th aug low of 4353 and the 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started fom 19 aug 09 lows of 4353.the 1st sub sub leg of this 3rd sub wave was completed around 4700 levels and after a flat type correction between 4650 & 4700 as the 2nd sub sub leg, nifty has perhaps broken out as 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave on friday 28th august. As long as nifty does not fall to close below 4580 this upside break out will remain valid for much higher levels.
we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started.
Most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on 12 aug lows of 4360 or 17th aug low of 4353 and the 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started fom 19 aug 09 lows of 4353.the 1st sub sub leg of this 3rd sub wave was completed around 4700 levels and after a flat type correction between 4650 & 4700 as the 2nd sub sub leg, nifty has perhaps broken out as 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave on friday 28th august. As long as nifty does not fall to close below 4580 this upside break out will remain valid for much higher levels.
weekly trading range for week ending 4th september 09
the trading range for the week may be confined to 4646 on the lower side and 4788 on the higher side. A decisive breach of 4646 on the lower side may bring down nifty towards the important support around 4580 levels from where solid buying may be expected. On the higher side the decisive breach of important fibonacci resistance around 4788 can easily take nifty towards 4909 levels.
the trading range for the week may be confined to 4646 on the lower side and 4788 on the higher side. A decisive breach of 4646 on the lower side may bring down nifty towards the important support around 4580 levels from where solid buying may be expected. On the higher side the decisive breach of important fibonacci resistance around 4788 can easily take nifty towards 4909 levels.
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