Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
- Start date
- Status
markets for 01 sept 09
as expected, nifty after 7 consecutive days of rise, had to correct and the correction was more of showing some sort of solidarity with asian markets. Nifty could not sustain above the 4700 mark and fell to breach fridays lows of 4651 to go down till 4635 and bounced from the 50 hour ema from there and closed 70 points lower around 4661. So, in relation to its previous day, nifty made a lower high, lower low and lower closing. Till such time nifty does not nullify 2 out of these 3 lower parameters of high, low & closings, the weakness will remain with nifty for another day or two. Actually speaking, there is no inherent weakness in nifty, but the external influence of weakness in asian markets is pulling it down. The day asian markets recover, more so if china recovers, one can see nifty shooting up like a rocket towards new yearly highs.
If one has a look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that on monday nifty took support around the 50 hour ema around 4631 levels. So, if on tuesday, nifty is again influenced by weakness in asian markets, then it can slide towards firstly 50 ema around 4631 and if this is breached then 200 ema around 4611 levels should bring in heavy buying support. Slow stochastic showing signs of turning up before entering the lower zone is a bullish signal for nifty and if it does not enter the lower zone, one can see another sharp up move on tuesday after initial weakness incase triggered by weak chinese market. In any case the start of the gap zone around 4582 levels is a strong support for nifty. It looks like markets may pause or mildly correct till wednesday after which the up move may resume with a lot of vigor to make new highs
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY, IN CASE ASIAN MARKETS CONTINUE WITH THE WEAKNESS, THEN ONE MUST TRADE LIGHT ON THE LONG SIDE AND MAY WAIT TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO TRADE LONG AND HOLD LONGS FOR THURSDAY. APPROACH OF NIFTY TOWARDS 4700 TO 4720 MAY BE WELCOMED WITH SHORTING POWER AND IN CASE NIFTY FALLS TOWARDS 4600 THEN ONE MAY BUY FOR QUICK GAINS. IT IS WISER TO WAIT WITH PATIENCE FOR THE RIGHT TRADE SETUP TO ENTER AND WAIT FOR THE TARGET, INSTEAD OF ENTERING EARLY & HAVING STOP LOSS TRIGGERED.
as expected, nifty after 7 consecutive days of rise, had to correct and the correction was more of showing some sort of solidarity with asian markets. Nifty could not sustain above the 4700 mark and fell to breach fridays lows of 4651 to go down till 4635 and bounced from the 50 hour ema from there and closed 70 points lower around 4661. So, in relation to its previous day, nifty made a lower high, lower low and lower closing. Till such time nifty does not nullify 2 out of these 3 lower parameters of high, low & closings, the weakness will remain with nifty for another day or two. Actually speaking, there is no inherent weakness in nifty, but the external influence of weakness in asian markets is pulling it down. The day asian markets recover, more so if china recovers, one can see nifty shooting up like a rocket towards new yearly highs.
If one has a look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that on monday nifty took support around the 50 hour ema around 4631 levels. So, if on tuesday, nifty is again influenced by weakness in asian markets, then it can slide towards firstly 50 ema around 4631 and if this is breached then 200 ema around 4611 levels should bring in heavy buying support. Slow stochastic showing signs of turning up before entering the lower zone is a bullish signal for nifty and if it does not enter the lower zone, one can see another sharp up move on tuesday after initial weakness incase triggered by weak chinese market. In any case the start of the gap zone around 4582 levels is a strong support for nifty. It looks like markets may pause or mildly correct till wednesday after which the up move may resume with a lot of vigor to make new highs
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY, IN CASE ASIAN MARKETS CONTINUE WITH THE WEAKNESS, THEN ONE MUST TRADE LIGHT ON THE LONG SIDE AND MAY WAIT TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO TRADE LONG AND HOLD LONGS FOR THURSDAY. APPROACH OF NIFTY TOWARDS 4700 TO 4720 MAY BE WELCOMED WITH SHORTING POWER AND IN CASE NIFTY FALLS TOWARDS 4600 THEN ONE MAY BUY FOR QUICK GAINS. IT IS WISER TO WAIT WITH PATIENCE FOR THE RIGHT TRADE SETUP TO ENTER AND WAIT FOR THE TARGET, INSTEAD OF ENTERING EARLY & HAVING STOP LOSS TRIGGERED.
Last edited:
..morning update at 8 am 01 sept 09 monday
the last day of august was not a good day for the equity markets across the world. Asian markets were weak. Dow which was more than 100 points down before closure of european markets, recovered towards the end to close down by only 48 points. European markets in the absence of uk ftse which was closed, were down by 1%. Brazil was down by 2%. Asian markets have opened flat to take real cues from chinese markets after it opens.
For indian markets expect another mildly bearish or flattish day in case rest of asian markets succumb to chinese pressure. One must be mentally prepared to see chinese markets falling by another 10% to 15% by mid september, before the bears get saturated there & chinese govt opens the taps for releasing credits as well as the chinese markets flooded with flurry of ipos take a pause. Although chinese fall may not at all impact the indian markets, bears use it as a cause for pulling the markets down after seven days of continuous rise.
For tuesday, most likely the the pattern will be similar to monday & the indices may trade within the confines of mondays range with a negative bias. After all 7 days of continuous rise has to be balanced at least by 3 days of pause to sharply move up again to resume the bullish momentum. It is wiser to wait for second half of the day to initiate fresh trades for better gains. Traders may book profit on their longs and bought calls as nifty approaches last weeks highs or moves towards 4700 to 4720 levels where puts may be bought. Similarly as nifty approaches 4620 to 4600 levels futures and calls may be bought back by booking profit on shorts & puts. Traders may plan to accumulate metal & commodity stocks as a likely chinese dead cat bounce may see a sharp up move in metals shortly.
the last day of august was not a good day for the equity markets across the world. Asian markets were weak. Dow which was more than 100 points down before closure of european markets, recovered towards the end to close down by only 48 points. European markets in the absence of uk ftse which was closed, were down by 1%. Brazil was down by 2%. Asian markets have opened flat to take real cues from chinese markets after it opens.
For indian markets expect another mildly bearish or flattish day in case rest of asian markets succumb to chinese pressure. One must be mentally prepared to see chinese markets falling by another 10% to 15% by mid september, before the bears get saturated there & chinese govt opens the taps for releasing credits as well as the chinese markets flooded with flurry of ipos take a pause. Although chinese fall may not at all impact the indian markets, bears use it as a cause for pulling the markets down after seven days of continuous rise.
For tuesday, most likely the the pattern will be similar to monday & the indices may trade within the confines of mondays range with a negative bias. After all 7 days of continuous rise has to be balanced at least by 3 days of pause to sharply move up again to resume the bullish momentum. It is wiser to wait for second half of the day to initiate fresh trades for better gains. Traders may book profit on their longs and bought calls as nifty approaches last weeks highs or moves towards 4700 to 4720 levels where puts may be bought. Similarly as nifty approaches 4620 to 4600 levels futures and calls may be bought back by booking profit on shorts & puts. Traders may plan to accumulate metal & commodity stocks as a likely chinese dead cat bounce may see a sharp up move in metals shortly.
markets for 02 sept 09
out of 3 days of expected correction after 7 days of consecutive rise in indices, the indices completed their 2nd day of correction on tuesday and one should be mentally prepared to see another day of correction on wednesday. On monday, during the intraday correction, nifty had taken support at the 50 hour ema around 4636 levels & it was predicted that if 50 ema was breached, then on tuesday nifty would find support around 200 ema, that exactly happened and nse index found support around the 200 ema as can be seen in the chart above.
This critical 200 hourly ema is a very important support as it coincides with the support line coming from the bottom at 4353 levels and if it is decisively breached, then nifty can slide to firstly find support at the top of the gap zone around 4580 levels followed by entry into the gap zone till 4515 to 4520 levels. Now for any up move, 50 hr ema around 4640 as can be seen in the chart above, may be a mild resistance, a cross over of which may give a free upward ride to nifty towards 4700 levels again.
FROM THE LOWS OF 4353 TILL LAST WEEKS HIGH OF 4743 NIFTY HAS GONE UP BY 390 POINTS. SO AS PER FIBONACCI RULES OF RETRACEMENT NIFTY FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT OF 38.2% AT 4594, FOLLOWED BY 50% AT 4548 AND FINALLY 61.8% AT 4502. SO, INCASE IMPORTANT SUPPORT AROUND 4600 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED, THEN A FALL INTO THE GAP ZONE TILL 4500 LEVELS SHOULD NOT GENERATE ANY PANIC. DOWS BIG FALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL RISE OF 60 POINTS ON GOOD ECONOMIC DATA IS NOTHING STRANGE AS EVERY YEAR DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER IT HAD BIG FALLS FOR A DAY OR TWO TO BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY.
FROM 2003 ONWARDS FOR 5 YEARS IN A ROW TILL 2007, EVEN AFTER FALLING SHARPLY DURING ONE OR TWO DAYS IN 1ST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER, IT HAS GONE ON TO EITHER BREACH THE AUGUST HIGHS OR CLOSED HIGHER THAN AUGUST CLOSINGS. IN 2003 & 2004 IT BREACHED AUGUST HIGHS AND IN 2005,2006 & 2007 IT HAD HIGHER MONTH END CLOSINGS THAN AUGUST. IN 2008, IT TOO HAD 2 DAYS OF BIG FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER BUT BEING IN THE THICKEST OF BEAR MARKET, IT CLOSED LOWER THAN AUGUST CLOSINGS. SO, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHARP BOUNCE IN DOW FROM THURSDAY OR EVEN WEDNESDAY. AFTER EIGHT CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RISE , A FALL FOR 3 DAYS IS NOTHING UNCOMMON.
out of 3 days of expected correction after 7 days of consecutive rise in indices, the indices completed their 2nd day of correction on tuesday and one should be mentally prepared to see another day of correction on wednesday. On monday, during the intraday correction, nifty had taken support at the 50 hour ema around 4636 levels & it was predicted that if 50 ema was breached, then on tuesday nifty would find support around 200 ema, that exactly happened and nse index found support around the 200 ema as can be seen in the chart above.
This critical 200 hourly ema is a very important support as it coincides with the support line coming from the bottom at 4353 levels and if it is decisively breached, then nifty can slide to firstly find support at the top of the gap zone around 4580 levels followed by entry into the gap zone till 4515 to 4520 levels. Now for any up move, 50 hr ema around 4640 as can be seen in the chart above, may be a mild resistance, a cross over of which may give a free upward ride to nifty towards 4700 levels again.
FROM THE LOWS OF 4353 TILL LAST WEEKS HIGH OF 4743 NIFTY HAS GONE UP BY 390 POINTS. SO AS PER FIBONACCI RULES OF RETRACEMENT NIFTY FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT OF 38.2% AT 4594, FOLLOWED BY 50% AT 4548 AND FINALLY 61.8% AT 4502. SO, INCASE IMPORTANT SUPPORT AROUND 4600 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED, THEN A FALL INTO THE GAP ZONE TILL 4500 LEVELS SHOULD NOT GENERATE ANY PANIC. DOWS BIG FALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL RISE OF 60 POINTS ON GOOD ECONOMIC DATA IS NOTHING STRANGE AS EVERY YEAR DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER IT HAD BIG FALLS FOR A DAY OR TWO TO BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY.
FROM 2003 ONWARDS FOR 5 YEARS IN A ROW TILL 2007, EVEN AFTER FALLING SHARPLY DURING ONE OR TWO DAYS IN 1ST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER, IT HAS GONE ON TO EITHER BREACH THE AUGUST HIGHS OR CLOSED HIGHER THAN AUGUST CLOSINGS. IN 2003 & 2004 IT BREACHED AUGUST HIGHS AND IN 2005,2006 & 2007 IT HAD HIGHER MONTH END CLOSINGS THAN AUGUST. IN 2008, IT TOO HAD 2 DAYS OF BIG FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER BUT BEING IN THE THICKEST OF BEAR MARKET, IT CLOSED LOWER THAN AUGUST CLOSINGS. SO, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHARP BOUNCE IN DOW FROM THURSDAY OR EVEN WEDNESDAY. AFTER EIGHT CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RISE , A FALL FOR 3 DAYS IS NOTHING UNCOMMON.
Last edited:
morning update at 8 am 02 sept 09
dow closed weak for the 3rd day in a row after 8 days of consecutive rise, this time with a fall of 185 points a loss of 1.9%.european markets too had a similar fall with uk ftse falling by 1.8%.brazil was down by 1.1%.asian markets which were up yesterday are gradually giving up their yesterdays gains and are most likely to close in red.
For indian markets, since it had fallen yesterday by more than 2.5% from the days high of 4736 to the close of 4625, as against rise in all asian markets, the fall in indian markets may not be that bad as compared to asian markets. After a gap down open with extreme low volumes, there is every possibility of a sharp bounce from around 4580 levels. However traders are advised not to enter any fresh trade till about the second half of the day and be a silent observer till further falls to take safe position. Supports for the day are around 4594 then last weeks low of 4580 followed by 8 week moving average around 4566 that should see a sharp bounce in nifty from this level. In case of further fall, traders may buy 4700 or 4800 calls and hold along with older puts.
Most likely markets may bounce up sharply after the initial fall or towards later part of the day. Long term investors must take full advantage of such dow induced falls towards 13 dma around 4575 to quietly accumulate stocks in the sectors of oil & gas exploration, infra, power & pharma for good gains. In long term bull markets these types of dow induced falls are the right opportunities to enter for long term investments.
dow closed weak for the 3rd day in a row after 8 days of consecutive rise, this time with a fall of 185 points a loss of 1.9%.european markets too had a similar fall with uk ftse falling by 1.8%.brazil was down by 1.1%.asian markets which were up yesterday are gradually giving up their yesterdays gains and are most likely to close in red.
For indian markets, since it had fallen yesterday by more than 2.5% from the days high of 4736 to the close of 4625, as against rise in all asian markets, the fall in indian markets may not be that bad as compared to asian markets. After a gap down open with extreme low volumes, there is every possibility of a sharp bounce from around 4580 levels. However traders are advised not to enter any fresh trade till about the second half of the day and be a silent observer till further falls to take safe position. Supports for the day are around 4594 then last weeks low of 4580 followed by 8 week moving average around 4566 that should see a sharp bounce in nifty from this level. In case of further fall, traders may buy 4700 or 4800 calls and hold along with older puts.
Most likely markets may bounce up sharply after the initial fall or towards later part of the day. Long term investors must take full advantage of such dow induced falls towards 13 dma around 4575 to quietly accumulate stocks in the sectors of oil & gas exploration, infra, power & pharma for good gains. In long term bull markets these types of dow induced falls are the right opportunities to enter for long term investments.
- Status
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Morning Star | Technical Analysis | 0 | |
| R | What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning | General Trading & Investing Chat | 2 | |
| A | How to avoid morning gaps ? | Trading Diary | 5 | |
| S | A GREAT Morning to All | Introductions | 0 | |
| M | good morning traderji.com | Introductions | 0 |
Similar threads
-
-
What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning
- Started by Rash123456789
- Replies: 2
-
-
-