Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
- Start date
- Status
markets for 03 sept 09
as expected nifty opened gap down & found support at the 13 day moving average as well as 200 hour ema around 4576 levels, sharply bounced back from there, went up till 50 hour ema around 4650, tried to cross it many times and finally gave a glorious retreat from 4650 levels to close at 100 hour ema at 4607.so, all these hours of trading on wednesday, nifty was shuttling between 200 hour ema at the bottom, 50 hour ema at the top and closed finally at the 100 hour ema. As the wednesdays fall was the 3rd consecutive day of fall in nifty which had 7 days of consecutive rise before this, there is every possibility of a bounce on thursday.
Actually, indian markets are caught in the cross fire between dow on one side and chinese markets on the other side. Suppose a rise in dow brings cheers for the bulls, it is quickly followed by weakness in chinese markets that dampen the sentiments. So, as long as this diversity in chinese and us markets dominate indian markets, chances of any further rise decisively above 4700 levels looks highly remote for the time being and the indices are likely to be confined within a trading range of 4500 to 4750 for some more days.
For trading on thursday, depending on condition of asian markets, nifty is likely to be confined to the wednesdays range of 4575 on the lower side and 4650 on the higher side. A decisive breach on any side may see another move of about 25 to 30 points in the direction of breach. Chances of dow rising even after 4 days of falls looks highly remote till tuesday after their labor day holiday on monday. Similarly chinese markets are having a measured rise only to see another fall in coming days. So it is wiser to be extremely cautious in futures trading specially in stock futures where chances of getting trapped are quite high. So, the ideal trading policy of "where in doubt, keep yourself out" works best in this operator infected market conditions.
as expected nifty opened gap down & found support at the 13 day moving average as well as 200 hour ema around 4576 levels, sharply bounced back from there, went up till 50 hour ema around 4650, tried to cross it many times and finally gave a glorious retreat from 4650 levels to close at 100 hour ema at 4607.so, all these hours of trading on wednesday, nifty was shuttling between 200 hour ema at the bottom, 50 hour ema at the top and closed finally at the 100 hour ema. As the wednesdays fall was the 3rd consecutive day of fall in nifty which had 7 days of consecutive rise before this, there is every possibility of a bounce on thursday.
Actually, indian markets are caught in the cross fire between dow on one side and chinese markets on the other side. Suppose a rise in dow brings cheers for the bulls, it is quickly followed by weakness in chinese markets that dampen the sentiments. So, as long as this diversity in chinese and us markets dominate indian markets, chances of any further rise decisively above 4700 levels looks highly remote for the time being and the indices are likely to be confined within a trading range of 4500 to 4750 for some more days.
For trading on thursday, depending on condition of asian markets, nifty is likely to be confined to the wednesdays range of 4575 on the lower side and 4650 on the higher side. A decisive breach on any side may see another move of about 25 to 30 points in the direction of breach. Chances of dow rising even after 4 days of falls looks highly remote till tuesday after their labor day holiday on monday. Similarly chinese markets are having a measured rise only to see another fall in coming days. So it is wiser to be extremely cautious in futures trading specially in stock futures where chances of getting trapped are quite high. So, the ideal trading policy of "where in doubt, keep yourself out" works best in this operator infected market conditions.
morning update at 8 am 03 sept 09
as expected, dow fell for the 4th day in a row & one should not be surprised to see dow making it for the fibonacci 5th day in a row by falling on thursday to match the 8 days of consecutive rise in late august. With their labor day holiday on monday and the 8th anniversary of 9/11 falling on wednesday one should not expect a big rise in dow till late next week. Brazil was down .8% & european markets closed absolutely flat. Asian markets have opened mixed to flat and may remain indecisive for the day sandwiched between us markets on one side and china syndrome on the other side.
For indian markets, expect the trading pattern to be confined within wednesdays range with a negative bias. Possibility of nifty rising to decisively breach wednesdays highs of 4650 looks highly remote where as a decisive fall below 4600 may take nifty down to breach wednesdays lows of 4676 to move towards next support around 4566 to 4555 levels. Even after getting good rains across the country since couple of days, having controlled swine flue & good economic numbers announced recently, indian markets still are now under complete grip of world markets which may continue for some more days. Having closed down for 3 days in a row, a flat or a mildly bullish closing may be the best one can expect on thursday.
as expected, dow fell for the 4th day in a row & one should not be surprised to see dow making it for the fibonacci 5th day in a row by falling on thursday to match the 8 days of consecutive rise in late august. With their labor day holiday on monday and the 8th anniversary of 9/11 falling on wednesday one should not expect a big rise in dow till late next week. Brazil was down .8% & european markets closed absolutely flat. Asian markets have opened mixed to flat and may remain indecisive for the day sandwiched between us markets on one side and china syndrome on the other side.
For indian markets, expect the trading pattern to be confined within wednesdays range with a negative bias. Possibility of nifty rising to decisively breach wednesdays highs of 4650 looks highly remote where as a decisive fall below 4600 may take nifty down to breach wednesdays lows of 4676 to move towards next support around 4566 to 4555 levels. Even after getting good rains across the country since couple of days, having controlled swine flue & good economic numbers announced recently, indian markets still are now under complete grip of world markets which may continue for some more days. Having closed down for 3 days in a row, a flat or a mildly bullish closing may be the best one can expect on thursday.
markets for 04 sept 09
nifty continued with its expected downward slide for 4 days in a row to compensate for the 7 consecutive days of rise during last week of august & one should not be surprised to see another day of uncertain market condition on friday although this time with a +ve bias. It was very interesting to note that, in spite of most of the asian markets including china being up for last 2 days, indian markets kept on sliding in line with us markets. Another interesting fact to be noted is that, although it looks as if the indices are falling, actually the fall is quite sluggish & the sell off coming towards the last hour after remaining range bound for the whole day.
On thursday, nifty was confined within the wednesdays range of 4650 and 4582.as was said earlier, the start of the gap zone at 4580 levels should provide strong support, is living up to its reputation and a decisive breach of 4575 to 4580 levels can easily see a bigger drop in nifty to fill the entire gap till around 4540 levels to slide further down.
If one has a closer look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that, on thursday, nifty was confined within the fibonacci emas of 34 ema on the higher side and 155 ema on the lower side. Second encouraging feature for the bears is that nifty is making a perfect h&s formation with double head around 4750 levels and neck line around 4580 levels as can be seen in the chart above. So a decisive breach of the neck line around 4575 to 4580 levels with volume can easily see a big fall towards 4455 levels in coming days. However if bulls manage to protect the neck line around 4575 to 4580 levels then one can see a good bounce as had happened many a times earlier when the indices had bounced up just after breaching the neck line of the h&s to flush out weaker hands
BEING LAST TRADING DAY OF THE WEEK, ONE CAN AGAIN EXPECT A LOW VOLUME TRADING DAY AS TRADERS MAY NOT LIKE TO CARRY POSITIONS FOR MONDAY. ON LAST FRIDAY 28TH AUGUST, NIFTY HAD CLOSED AT 4732 WHICH WAS MORE THAN 4.5% HIGHER THAN ITS PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING OF 4528 ON 21ST AUGUST. SO THE TURTLE FALL DURING THIS WEEK COULD POSSIBLY BE TO COMPENSATE SOME OF THE EXCESSES OF LAST WEEK. LAST WEEKS TRADING LOW WAS 4582 ON 25TH AUGUST AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN ABOVE 4600 ON 24TH AUGUST. SO, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A SHARP BOUNCE IN CASE NIFTY TRADES BELOW LAST WEEKS TRADING LOWS OF 4582, ALTHOUGH OPERATORS WILL MAKE THEIR UTMOST EFFORT TO CLOSE IT BELOW LAST WEEKS TRADING LOWS OF 4582 TO INDUCE AN EXTREMELY BEARISH FEELING FOR NEXT WEEK. TO THAT EXTENT DOW MOST LIKELY WILL BE MADE TO CLOSE FLAT TO NEGATIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO HELP THOSE EXTERNAL OPERATORS.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON FRIDAY, NIFTY FINDS STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4580 LEVELS. A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH CAN BRING IT DOWN TO FIND SUPPORT AROUND FIBONACCI 34 DAY MOVING AVERAGE AROUND 4563 FOLLOWED BY 20 DMA AROUND 4557 LEVELS AND THEN AT 4545 LEVELS . ON THE HIGHER SIDE THE DECIDING POINT FOR THE BULLS AROUND 4640 TO 4650 LEVELS MOST LIKELY WILL BE A FORMIDABLE RESISTANCE, PERHAPS TO BE LEFT OVER FOR NEXT WEEK TO BE CROSSED BY THE BULLS. A DECISIVE CROSS OVER AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 4650 CAN SEE ANOTHER ROCKET TYPE UP MOVE TOWARDS 4700 LEVELS, TO BE INDUCED MOSTLY BY SHORT COVERING.
nifty continued with its expected downward slide for 4 days in a row to compensate for the 7 consecutive days of rise during last week of august & one should not be surprised to see another day of uncertain market condition on friday although this time with a +ve bias. It was very interesting to note that, in spite of most of the asian markets including china being up for last 2 days, indian markets kept on sliding in line with us markets. Another interesting fact to be noted is that, although it looks as if the indices are falling, actually the fall is quite sluggish & the sell off coming towards the last hour after remaining range bound for the whole day.
On thursday, nifty was confined within the wednesdays range of 4650 and 4582.as was said earlier, the start of the gap zone at 4580 levels should provide strong support, is living up to its reputation and a decisive breach of 4575 to 4580 levels can easily see a bigger drop in nifty to fill the entire gap till around 4540 levels to slide further down.
If one has a closer look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that, on thursday, nifty was confined within the fibonacci emas of 34 ema on the higher side and 155 ema on the lower side. Second encouraging feature for the bears is that nifty is making a perfect h&s formation with double head around 4750 levels and neck line around 4580 levels as can be seen in the chart above. So a decisive breach of the neck line around 4575 to 4580 levels with volume can easily see a big fall towards 4455 levels in coming days. However if bulls manage to protect the neck line around 4575 to 4580 levels then one can see a good bounce as had happened many a times earlier when the indices had bounced up just after breaching the neck line of the h&s to flush out weaker hands
BEING LAST TRADING DAY OF THE WEEK, ONE CAN AGAIN EXPECT A LOW VOLUME TRADING DAY AS TRADERS MAY NOT LIKE TO CARRY POSITIONS FOR MONDAY. ON LAST FRIDAY 28TH AUGUST, NIFTY HAD CLOSED AT 4732 WHICH WAS MORE THAN 4.5% HIGHER THAN ITS PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING OF 4528 ON 21ST AUGUST. SO THE TURTLE FALL DURING THIS WEEK COULD POSSIBLY BE TO COMPENSATE SOME OF THE EXCESSES OF LAST WEEK. LAST WEEKS TRADING LOW WAS 4582 ON 25TH AUGUST AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN ABOVE 4600 ON 24TH AUGUST. SO, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A SHARP BOUNCE IN CASE NIFTY TRADES BELOW LAST WEEKS TRADING LOWS OF 4582, ALTHOUGH OPERATORS WILL MAKE THEIR UTMOST EFFORT TO CLOSE IT BELOW LAST WEEKS TRADING LOWS OF 4582 TO INDUCE AN EXTREMELY BEARISH FEELING FOR NEXT WEEK. TO THAT EXTENT DOW MOST LIKELY WILL BE MADE TO CLOSE FLAT TO NEGATIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO HELP THOSE EXTERNAL OPERATORS.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON FRIDAY, NIFTY FINDS STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4580 LEVELS. A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH CAN BRING IT DOWN TO FIND SUPPORT AROUND FIBONACCI 34 DAY MOVING AVERAGE AROUND 4563 FOLLOWED BY 20 DMA AROUND 4557 LEVELS AND THEN AT 4545 LEVELS . ON THE HIGHER SIDE THE DECIDING POINT FOR THE BULLS AROUND 4640 TO 4650 LEVELS MOST LIKELY WILL BE A FORMIDABLE RESISTANCE, PERHAPS TO BE LEFT OVER FOR NEXT WEEK TO BE CROSSED BY THE BULLS. A DECISIVE CROSS OVER AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 4650 CAN SEE ANOTHER ROCKET TYPE UP MOVE TOWARDS 4700 LEVELS, TO BE INDUCED MOSTLY BY SHORT COVERING.
Last edited:
Not a major breakout... US is "muted" and waiting for Job Reports on Friday, it will come tomorrow in US trade hours , after trade hours tomorrow in India. US is not reacting before the job reports and so we (India) will not before that. We are ignoring China for now and waiting for US to confirm if they are going to go above 1000 or below 990. The real action will come on Monday and I will close all my positions tomorrow...mostly long in options.
morning update at 8 am 04 sept 09
after 4 days of consecutive falls, dow managed to close slightly +ve on thursday night with only a .7% rise of 64 points. More encouraging was the closure of s&p500 above 1000 mark again. However us markets being closed on monday on account of labor day holiday, may see a flat to negative day on friday. European markets had closed mildly negative with uk ftse closing down by .4%. Brazil closed .6% up. Asian markets after 2 days of rise, have opened mixed with china showing signs of a fall after 3 days of rise. Most likely baring chinese & korean markets, most of the asian markets may close flat to mildly +ve. Sgx nifty which is showing as +40 with finger count volume may fall to nearly 10 point +ve just before opening of indian markets.
For indian markets, one may expect a mildly bullish or flattish opening after 4 days of consecutive falls. It may be tough for nifty to trade above 4650 levels above which only some +ve momentum may be seen. On the lower side 4580 may continue to provide strong support. With week end considerations, traders may confine to intraday cyclic trading only within the nifty range of 4650 and 4580.buying of 4600 puts as nifty approaches 4640 and buying of 4700 calls as nifty approaches 4580 is advised. Traders may carry options in the ratio of 2 calls to 1 put for next week. As far as possible, avoid carry over of un hedged future position for monday.
after 4 days of consecutive falls, dow managed to close slightly +ve on thursday night with only a .7% rise of 64 points. More encouraging was the closure of s&p500 above 1000 mark again. However us markets being closed on monday on account of labor day holiday, may see a flat to negative day on friday. European markets had closed mildly negative with uk ftse closing down by .4%. Brazil closed .6% up. Asian markets after 2 days of rise, have opened mixed with china showing signs of a fall after 3 days of rise. Most likely baring chinese & korean markets, most of the asian markets may close flat to mildly +ve. Sgx nifty which is showing as +40 with finger count volume may fall to nearly 10 point +ve just before opening of indian markets.
For indian markets, one may expect a mildly bullish or flattish opening after 4 days of consecutive falls. It may be tough for nifty to trade above 4650 levels above which only some +ve momentum may be seen. On the lower side 4580 may continue to provide strong support. With week end considerations, traders may confine to intraday cyclic trading only within the nifty range of 4650 and 4580.buying of 4600 puts as nifty approaches 4640 and buying of 4700 calls as nifty approaches 4580 is advised. Traders may carry options in the ratio of 2 calls to 1 put for next week. As far as possible, avoid carry over of un hedged future position for monday.
- Status
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Morning Star | Technical Analysis | 0 | |
| R | What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning | General Trading & Investing Chat | 2 | |
| A | How to avoid morning gaps ? | Trading Diary | 5 | |
| S | A GREAT Morning to All | Introductions | 0 | |
| M | good morning traderji.com | Introductions | 0 |
Similar threads
-
-
What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning
- Started by Rash123456789
- Replies: 2
-
-
-