Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
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After G20 meet, I am even more positive. Bulls are going to kill all the bears in the next week and we should see new yearly high. Any initial dip on Monday around 4600-4650 could be used to go long in your favorite stock or 4700CE.
I am stock specific and long in Suzlon 100CA, Prajind 100CA, EssarOil 175CA & Renuka 210CA.
Already in profit in Suzlon & Praj... Essar at buy price and renuka little loss...
I am stock specific and long in Suzlon 100CA, Prajind 100CA, EssarOil 175CA & Renuka 210CA.
Already in profit in Suzlon & Praj... Essar at buy price and renuka little loss...
weekly markets analysis for week ending 11th september 09
after 4 consecutive days of falls from monday till thursday, markets bounced up on friday to catch every one off balance . From the low of 4580 nifty went up to almost retest 4700 levels by friday end. What was more important during the week was the short term bottom formed around 4580 levels. During the week nifty tried to breach this support level of 4580 at least 4 times but every time it approached this level,the bulls came to the rescue and protected the bottom. Now swing traders may shift their swing low from 4350 levels to 4580 level & most likely this week may see the decisive break out above 4700 to 4750 levels.
A strong green wrb on friday after 2 spinning tops on thursday and wednesday & that too the strong wrb of friday closing high above the top of both the spinning top candles indicates fresh renewed strength that should make new yearly highs. Other world markets including u.s have shown signs of revival after the china syndrome & now it has to be seen if mysterious chinese markets as usual spring a nasty surprise again by falling sharply during the coming week. As per the data from the start of the previous bull market since 2003, it has been seen that except for the highly bearish year of 2008, world markets have generally performed better in the month of september by either closing higher than the monthly closing of august or have breached the august highs.
With good monsoons pouring all around the country, having a control over swine flu, good economic numbers, one should not be surprised to see a very good month of september for the equity markets not only for india but across the world so that a good high spring board is formed for a reasonable plunge during the ever devastating month of october. Starting from july, good support levels have been formed each month. In july it was the bottom at 3929, in august it was 4350 and most likely the bottom formed during last week around 4580 will hold for the entire month of september & who knows, a sharp rise during rest of september may see the august-september resistance around 4700 levels becoming a strong support during october.
The most interesting part during all the bull phases is that, a slight fall on any day generates so much of fear that every one is reminded of the previous bear market falls and they try to liquidate their winners thinking that the gains may melt away, only to find later that they have missed the bus for the next up move. Not only that, during these small corrections, some financial news channels search and find out global chameleons to add to the bearish sentiment in order to fulfill their own shorting interest. Keeping all these factors in mind, long term investors must make full use of such corrections to quietly add on to their long positions keeping in mind that the markets are in for a much bigger up move in coming months & leave the rest to the operators, financial news channels & global chameleons to decide between themselves as to which day to manage the index up & on which day to pull it down.
after 4 consecutive days of falls from monday till thursday, markets bounced up on friday to catch every one off balance . From the low of 4580 nifty went up to almost retest 4700 levels by friday end. What was more important during the week was the short term bottom formed around 4580 levels. During the week nifty tried to breach this support level of 4580 at least 4 times but every time it approached this level,the bulls came to the rescue and protected the bottom. Now swing traders may shift their swing low from 4350 levels to 4580 level & most likely this week may see the decisive break out above 4700 to 4750 levels.
A strong green wrb on friday after 2 spinning tops on thursday and wednesday & that too the strong wrb of friday closing high above the top of both the spinning top candles indicates fresh renewed strength that should make new yearly highs. Other world markets including u.s have shown signs of revival after the china syndrome & now it has to be seen if mysterious chinese markets as usual spring a nasty surprise again by falling sharply during the coming week. As per the data from the start of the previous bull market since 2003, it has been seen that except for the highly bearish year of 2008, world markets have generally performed better in the month of september by either closing higher than the monthly closing of august or have breached the august highs.
With good monsoons pouring all around the country, having a control over swine flu, good economic numbers, one should not be surprised to see a very good month of september for the equity markets not only for india but across the world so that a good high spring board is formed for a reasonable plunge during the ever devastating month of october. Starting from july, good support levels have been formed each month. In july it was the bottom at 3929, in august it was 4350 and most likely the bottom formed during last week around 4580 will hold for the entire month of september & who knows, a sharp rise during rest of september may see the august-september resistance around 4700 levels becoming a strong support during october.
The most interesting part during all the bull phases is that, a slight fall on any day generates so much of fear that every one is reminded of the previous bear market falls and they try to liquidate their winners thinking that the gains may melt away, only to find later that they have missed the bus for the next up move. Not only that, during these small corrections, some financial news channels search and find out global chameleons to add to the bearish sentiment in order to fulfill their own shorting interest. Keeping all these factors in mind, long term investors must make full use of such corrections to quietly add on to their long positions keeping in mind that the markets are in for a much bigger up move in coming months & leave the rest to the operators, financial news channels & global chameleons to decide between themselves as to which day to manage the index up & on which day to pull it down.
elliott wave count for week ending 11th september 09
it is assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. (please see daily eod chart above)
most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on 19 aug lows of 4353. The 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started from 19 aug 09 lows of 4353.the 1st sub sub leg of this 3rd sub wave was completed around 4744 levels on 28 aug and after a correction till 4580 as the 2nd sub sub leg, nifty has perhaps broken out as 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave on friday 4th sept. As long as nifty does not fall to close below 4580 this upside break out will remain valid for much higher levels towards 5100 levels as part of 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub leg of the 3rd up wave.
it is assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. (please see daily eod chart above)
most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on 19 aug lows of 4353. The 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started from 19 aug 09 lows of 4353.the 1st sub sub leg of this 3rd sub wave was completed around 4744 levels on 28 aug and after a correction till 4580 as the 2nd sub sub leg, nifty has perhaps broken out as 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave on friday 4th sept. As long as nifty does not fall to close below 4580 this upside break out will remain valid for much higher levels towards 5100 levels as part of 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub leg of the 3rd up wave.
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weekly technicals for week ending 11th september 09
there is no change to my monthly analysis as was given last week. The indicators in the monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. In the monthly charts of sensex and nifty, both have moved and closed above the august 08 highs of 15577 & 4650 & are ready for a sharp up move towards may 08 highs of 17535 & 5299 within next 2 or 3 months. The strongest monthly signal being 8 month moving average coming from below 13 month moving average to cross it to move above it, is the strongest long term bullish signal which is occurring first time after sept 04.monthly macd has moved up & crossed zero line which is a strong long term bullish signal. All the monthly indicators are generating robust bullish signals which are extremely bullish for the long term health of the markets.
During the week both sensex & nifty lost about 1% compared to their previous week closings. As a result this weekly fall, most of the weekly indicators have taken a pause in their bullish indications & most of the indicators look doubtful. Compared to the oscillators, the weekly moving averages continue to generate robust bullish signals. This week,20 week moving average has moved up to breach 100 week moving average. Earlier it had breached 50 week moving average. The strongest weekly bullish signal comes from the 50 week exponential moving average at 3960 has breached both 200 wema at 3709 & 100 wema at 3955. These are long term bullish signals occurring for the first time after june 2003 when the previous bull market had started.
In the daily eod charts, the big rise on friday after 4 consecutive days of fall has rejuvenated the daily indicators which have started to look up again. Daily stochastic as can be seen in the chart above, has started to generate strong bullish signal & is about to turn up before entering the lower zone. Similarly daily rsi 14 at the level of 58 has also started to look up again. Roc is flat around 3 where as cci and adx are looking up again. Cross over & positioning of fibonacci 8,13 & 21 & 34 dmas between 4659,4612,4563 & 4568 respectively makes this zone a strong support zone for entering long positions in case of a correction into this zone. So, all in all, having recovered strongly after 4 consecutive days of fall, one can expect a bullish week which may try again to breach the all important 4700 to 4750 zone during the coming week.
there is no change to my monthly analysis as was given last week. The indicators in the monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. In the monthly charts of sensex and nifty, both have moved and closed above the august 08 highs of 15577 & 4650 & are ready for a sharp up move towards may 08 highs of 17535 & 5299 within next 2 or 3 months. The strongest monthly signal being 8 month moving average coming from below 13 month moving average to cross it to move above it, is the strongest long term bullish signal which is occurring first time after sept 04.monthly macd has moved up & crossed zero line which is a strong long term bullish signal. All the monthly indicators are generating robust bullish signals which are extremely bullish for the long term health of the markets.
During the week both sensex & nifty lost about 1% compared to their previous week closings. As a result this weekly fall, most of the weekly indicators have taken a pause in their bullish indications & most of the indicators look doubtful. Compared to the oscillators, the weekly moving averages continue to generate robust bullish signals. This week,20 week moving average has moved up to breach 100 week moving average. Earlier it had breached 50 week moving average. The strongest weekly bullish signal comes from the 50 week exponential moving average at 3960 has breached both 200 wema at 3709 & 100 wema at 3955. These are long term bullish signals occurring for the first time after june 2003 when the previous bull market had started.
In the daily eod charts, the big rise on friday after 4 consecutive days of fall has rejuvenated the daily indicators which have started to look up again. Daily stochastic as can be seen in the chart above, has started to generate strong bullish signal & is about to turn up before entering the lower zone. Similarly daily rsi 14 at the level of 58 has also started to look up again. Roc is flat around 3 where as cci and adx are looking up again. Cross over & positioning of fibonacci 8,13 & 21 & 34 dmas between 4659,4612,4563 & 4568 respectively makes this zone a strong support zone for entering long positions in case of a correction into this zone. So, all in all, having recovered strongly after 4 consecutive days of fall, one can expect a bullish week which may try again to breach the all important 4700 to 4750 zone during the coming week.
fibonacci levels for nifty
for fibonacci levels we will confine our studies to the 3rd sub wave that has started from 4353 and further up sub waves . The 1st sub sub wave 3rd sub wave started from the low of 4353 & went up till 4744 covering a distance of 391 points. The 2nd corrective sub sub wave came down till 4580 levels. The new 3rd sub sub wave which has started from friday 4th sept can move up to various fibonacci levels of 38.2% till 5120, 50% till 5166 and 61.8% till 5212.
While nifty makes these series of up moves after a decisive breach of 4750 levels, it may find another critical fibonacci level around 4788 which is the 61.8% retracement from the last bull market high of 6357 till the bear market low of 2252. Although this level may not have any significance during the current bull market as was the case with the earlier levels of 38.2% at 3820 & 50% at 4304,when each of these were over run by gap up opens on election verdict day of 18th may followed by another gap up on 29th may, yet this level of 61.8% around 4788 will show its power to delay the up move for a few days by generating a false fear that the rally from march lows of 2539 was part of the bear market rally. However this critical 62% level around 4788 may also be completely over run by another gap up open on any of the coming days to share the same fate as 38.2% & 50% levels.
for fibonacci levels we will confine our studies to the 3rd sub wave that has started from 4353 and further up sub waves . The 1st sub sub wave 3rd sub wave started from the low of 4353 & went up till 4744 covering a distance of 391 points. The 2nd corrective sub sub wave came down till 4580 levels. The new 3rd sub sub wave which has started from friday 4th sept can move up to various fibonacci levels of 38.2% till 5120, 50% till 5166 and 61.8% till 5212.
While nifty makes these series of up moves after a decisive breach of 4750 levels, it may find another critical fibonacci level around 4788 which is the 61.8% retracement from the last bull market high of 6357 till the bear market low of 2252. Although this level may not have any significance during the current bull market as was the case with the earlier levels of 38.2% at 3820 & 50% at 4304,when each of these were over run by gap up opens on election verdict day of 18th may followed by another gap up on 29th may, yet this level of 61.8% around 4788 will show its power to delay the up move for a few days by generating a false fear that the rally from march lows of 2539 was part of the bear market rally. However this critical 62% level around 4788 may also be completely over run by another gap up open on any of the coming days to share the same fate as 38.2% & 50% levels.
weekly trading range for week ending 11th september 09
the resistance line joining the tops from 12th june high of 4693,4th august high of 4731 will be forming a resistance around 4760 to 4770 levels. Around or a little above this levels remains the other fibonacci resistance of 4788. So, if everything goes well and chinese markets dont play the spoil sports, then most likely nifty should move up turn by turn to test these levels during this week. However if world markets are buoyant and show sharp break out, then there is every possibility of nifty moving up towards 4800+ levels during the week.
On the lower side 4580 continues to remain a strong support which bulls must protect under all circumstances to prevent bears from regaining initiative. A decisive close above 4744 on a day or two may see accelerated momentum in nifty towards much higher levels and a decisive close for a day or two below 4580 may see sharp falls.
the resistance line joining the tops from 12th june high of 4693,4th august high of 4731 will be forming a resistance around 4760 to 4770 levels. Around or a little above this levels remains the other fibonacci resistance of 4788. So, if everything goes well and chinese markets dont play the spoil sports, then most likely nifty should move up turn by turn to test these levels during this week. However if world markets are buoyant and show sharp break out, then there is every possibility of nifty moving up towards 4800+ levels during the week.
On the lower side 4580 continues to remain a strong support which bulls must protect under all circumstances to prevent bears from regaining initiative. A decisive close above 4744 on a day or two may see accelerated momentum in nifty towards much higher levels and a decisive close for a day or two below 4580 may see sharp falls.
markets for 07 sept 09 the new week opens on monday
at the back drop of a sharp fresh up move on friday after 4 days of falls. The opening also will have the backing of a 90 point rise in dow on friday night. Also the trading on monday will not have the fear as to what would happen to dow in the night, as u.s markets are closed on monday. However in the absence of dow fear, chinese markets may show their negative influence having risen for 4 consecutive days that may act as a dampener. So, the opening will be highly dependent on asian markets which too baring china, are likely to open strongly due to pre and post market effect of dow.
For intraday trading on monday, nse index has a good support around 4670 levels that should not be breached under normal circumstances. A decisive breach of 4670 may bring it down to 4650 levels from where another solid bounce may be expected. On the higher side it has intraday resistance around fridays highs of 4696 followed by 4720 and in case of buoyant asian markets, one can expect higher levels of 4744 to 4750+ levels where profit booking may be expected.
Important daily indicator slow stochastic in the daily eod chart above has completed the downward cycle & is about to show a sharp move towards the upper zone, that may take nifty to much higher levels. So, every intraday correction after the decisive break out above 4744 levels should be bought into for good gains during the week.
at the back drop of a sharp fresh up move on friday after 4 days of falls. The opening also will have the backing of a 90 point rise in dow on friday night. Also the trading on monday will not have the fear as to what would happen to dow in the night, as u.s markets are closed on monday. However in the absence of dow fear, chinese markets may show their negative influence having risen for 4 consecutive days that may act as a dampener. So, the opening will be highly dependent on asian markets which too baring china, are likely to open strongly due to pre and post market effect of dow.
For intraday trading on monday, nse index has a good support around 4670 levels that should not be breached under normal circumstances. A decisive breach of 4670 may bring it down to 4650 levels from where another solid bounce may be expected. On the higher side it has intraday resistance around fridays highs of 4696 followed by 4720 and in case of buoyant asian markets, one can expect higher levels of 4744 to 4750+ levels where profit booking may be expected.
Important daily indicator slow stochastic in the daily eod chart above has completed the downward cycle & is about to show a sharp move towards the upper zone, that may take nifty to much higher levels. So, every intraday correction after the decisive break out above 4744 levels should be bought into for good gains during the week.
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