Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

markets for 09 sept 09

as was expected, the bullish momentum in the markets continued & both sensex and nifty breached their 62% fibonacci resistances around 16046 and 4788, went up till 16232 & 4842 to finally close at 16123 & 4805 above the fibonacci resistance. Profit booking from 2 pm onwards brought down the indices to close moderately flat. In spite of the last hour corrections, the markets still look extremely strong for further higher levels, although the correction that has started after 2 pm on tuesday may bring down the indices to slightly lower levels for another sharp bounce after the well deserved pause.

For intraday trading on wednesday, the level of 4784 is a very critical level for nifty, a breach of which may bring down nifty towards 4730 levels bypassing the pivot point around 4767 levels. Most likely this level around 4784 will hold to take nifty upwards for a flat formation between 4840 & 4780 levels to finally break out of the flat towards 5000 levels. So, any fall in markets must be used as a god sent opportunity to go long for very good gains during the month. The daily indicators are clearly indicating strong momentum for further up move in coming days. However one must be prepared to see small corrections or consolidations in between for further up move as part of the strong bull run.

MOST OF THE INDEX HEAVIES AFTER THE PAUSE ARE LOOKING EXTREMELY STRONG TO TAKE THE INDICES TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. INFRA & CONSTRUCTION SECTOR HAS CORRECTED ON TUESDAY, SO INVESTORS MUST MAKE FULL USE OF THESE CORRECTIONS TO ADD MORE ON EVERY DECLINE FOR GOOD LONG TERM GAINS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE THING THAT CAN HAVE AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON INDIAN MARKET IS THAT ASIAN MARKETS MAY CORRECT AFTER 3 DAYS OF +VE MOVES. IF DOW HAS A LACK LUSTER CLOSING ON TUESDAY CONTRARY TO ITS MORE THAN 90 POINTS FUTURE PRICE WHICH WAS SHOWING WHEN ASIA WAS TRADING, THEN ASIAN MARKETS MAY CORRECT THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT AT THE START OF INDIAN MARKETS.

MOST LIKELY THE HIGH OF 4842 REACHED ON TUESDAY MAY SEE NIFTY PAUSE FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE ANOTHER SHARP UP MOVE. SO 4780 ON THE LOWER SIDE AND 4848 ON THE HIGHER SIDE ARE CRITICAL LEVELS WITHIN WHICH NIFTY IS LIKELY TO OSCILLATE ON WEDNESDAY. A DECISIVE BREACH ON ANY SIDE MAY SEE A SHARP MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF BREACH.

 

[pranayk]

Dear Pranay
I think the chart is not attached

Regards
Bharath

You are correct
I am facing some internet problem while attaching the chart
will try to attach later
Thanks.......

 

[pranayk]

You are correct
I am facing some internet problem while attaching the chart
will try to attach later
Thanks.......

I am still not able to attach
SORRY

 

[magnanimous]

Hi Mr. Pranay,

I'm one of your follower. Thanx for your marvellous thread. Today, I really felt like missing your chart... I wish that you could post it tomorrow....

Cheers......

Madhav

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 09 sept 09

us markets opened on a +ve note with dow rising by 56 points and s&p500 again reaching 1025 levels. The charts of dow indicate a lot of up move in coming days. European markets closed flat between .2% to .5% with uk ftse closing down by .2%.brazil showed remarkable move with 2.1% rise. Asian markets have opened mildly negative fearing that china may fall after 4 days of recovery. Although charts of most of the asian markets show big up move in coming days, these markets may take a pause before another big up move.

For indian markets, expect a flat to mildly bullish opening. The indices may move up to breach tuesdays highs and test 4850 levels. On the lower side support around 4785 will invite buying interest. Metals and other commodity, oil & gas stocks which have started to move up since yesterday may move up further. Investors must keep an eye on the sectors like auto, pharma, realty & infra which have corrected yesterday to enter these on declines for good gains.

Markets all over the world look highly bullish for big up move in coming days. Different sectors & stocks will move in cyclic pattern. Hence it is wiser for investors to keep an eye on the sectors correcting to enter these gradually on corrections for good long term gains.expect a flat to mildly weak closing on wednesday

 

[captgolu]

Pranay bhai kaha hai aap

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis for 10th Sept 2009

 

[pranayk]

markets for 10 sept 09

as expected nifty took another day of pause. The critical level at 4784 could not be breached by nifty on both the attempts it made to breach on wednesday. Now 4784 becomes a strong support like earlier supports of 3919, 4353, 4580. Although the new support around 4784 looks quite delicate as of now, however another bounce from this support at 4784 may make this support as formidable as other supports. No doubt, a decisive breach of this support can see a stone like fall till 4728 to 4720 levels & bulls may go all out to protect this level of 4784.

As per hourly chart above important intraday indicator slow stochastic is giving encouraging signals having turned up before entering the lower zone which may take it into the upper zone implying that the first half may see an up move followed by fall to attempt to breach the critical support around 4784 level. Till such time nifty does not move up to close above tuesdays high of 4842, there will always remain the fear of falling to retest the earlier resistance around 4720 to 4730 levels.

Including wednesday, nifty has already moved up for 4 days in a row. So a mild correction on thursday should be a welcome sign, as this mild correction or even a flat like tuesday & wednesday will be the ideal condition for resumption of further up move for some more days towards 5000 levels by dewali. For intraday trading on thursday, an initial breach of 4805 can see nifty fall towards retest of the critical level at 4784. On the higher side a breach of 4824 can easily take nifty towards tuesdays highs of 4842 to move towards 4855 or higher levels.

Most of the asian markets which have corrected on wednesday may see a bounce on thursday morning if dow does not disappoint on wednesday night after closure of european markets. This rise in asian markets may give the initial boost to indian markets to see nifty crossing 4842 for another high. However with weak asian markets following likely chinese correction, may see indian markets fall at the start to retest the critical level of 4784 to decide whether to slide or shoot up. Breach of the upper side at 4824 or lower side at 4784 of the small rectangle shown in the chart above will decide which way nifty will move on thursday. In bull markets as we are now, the breach is generally on the higher side.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 10 sept 09

although most of the asian markets had a negative to flat day on wednesday, the markets of us & europe had a bullish day which may have a +ve a bullish impact on asian markets on thursday. Dow was up by 50 points to reach 9547 & has a lot more to go to move up & breach august highs of 9666. Brazil was flat. European markets were up from 1% to 1.5% with uk ftse closing up by 1.1%. Asian markets have opened on a bullish note but it will be known as to how they perform after the opening of chinese markets. Most of the asian markets are in for a good bounce & are likely to close in the +ve today.

For indian markets, after 2 days of flat formation, one can expect a bullish opening to move up to breach tuesdays highs of 4882.however having remained in the +ve for 4 days in a row, one should not be surprised to see a mildly negative closing on thursday or in case thursday is also a bullish day, then it will be 5 days of continuous rise and friday may be a correction day. So, one can take position accordingly. With charts of us markets showing signs of further up move, there is every possibility of a +ve day on thursday also.

For trading on thursday the moment the level of 4825 is breached on the up side by nse index, one can see a very sharp up move to breach tuesday highs of 4842 in twinkling of an eye to move up to much higher levels. This will also confirm the big break out after 4 months of consolidation that will see bears scrambling to cover their shorts and possibility of nse moving up towards 4900 can not be ruled out. Inflation data around 12.30 pm will see a minor blip for a few seconds to remind traders who had forgotten it for last 2 months that inflation data still exists. Stocks in pharma ,biotech & infra sectors after having their pause and correction this week are ready for sharp up move. Long term investors should accumulate on any further pause or intraday decline for sharp gains.

Option buyers have to be careful as only 8 trading days remain between expiry and today & reduction in option value due to time decay will be fast. So lower call holders must write (short) higher calls of 5000 on market rise by holding on to lower bought calls. Traders interested in puts may write puts of 4700 & 4600 on every intraday fall of indices by holding on to 4800 puts. Option traders who dont short options, should be very cautious in carry over of bought options as one reverse move in markets may reduce the price of options drastically towards zero value.

 

[captgolu]

Aaj definately 4900 touch karegi