Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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markets for 11 sept 09
as expected, the markets broke out of the rectangle and went up till 4888 & continuously fell from there due to profit booking to close finally at 4819 just 5 point higher than wednesdays close. Now, technically nifty has made 5 consecutive days of +ve closings & should have a mildly negative closing on friday to again move up next week. Although there are many instances of +ve closing for 8 days in a row, yet mostly after 5 days of +ve closings, the indices have a negative closing for at least a day. Interestingly, out of these 5 days of +ve closings, last 3 days of closings have been 4805,4814 & 4819. So one can assume these mildly +ve closings to be actually strong consolidation flat closings to be followed by a mega up move perhaps next week after another mildly +ve or -ve closing on friday.
For intraday trading on friday, bears have some hope of putting the bulls on the mat by bringing down nifty decisively below the critical make or break level of 4780. Should the bears manage to become triumphant in their efforts, then one can see nifty falling like a stone towards 4720 or even 4676 levels. Most likely bulls will go all out to protect the critical level at 4780.last weeks high was at 4744 and last weeks closing was at 4680.so one should not be surprised to see nifty closing just below the highs of last week in order to hide the mega bullish signal that would be indicated for next week if it would close far above the highest point of last week.
Looking at the bullish momentum that the indices are displaying after the breach of previous resistance line around 4770 as well as fibonacci resistance at 4788, even if a deceptive close below these levels by nifty due to the week end considerations, it will in no way prevent nifty in moving towards 5000+ levels in coming days. In fact a correction of this nature will make the indices more stronger for sharper up move next week. Traders & investors must keep in mind that the markets are in for a mega bullish phase in coming weeks & months and every intraday or a day or two of corrections must be made full use of to get into strong buying mode specially in the sectors which are correcting when others are moving up.
VARIOUS LEVELS FOR SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY TRADING ARE :-- ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF 4848 CAN SEE A SHARP UP MOVE TOWARDS 4862. A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 4862 CAN TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS THURSDAYS HIGHS OF 4888 TO BREACH IT AND HAVE A TEST OF 4900 TO GET MERCILESSLY HAMMERED OUT OF SHAPE BY THE BEARS TO RETREAT AT THE FASTEST POSSIBLE SPEED TOWARDS 4850 LEVELS. ON THE LOWER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF 4805 CAN SLIDE NIFTY TOWARDS THE MAKE OR BREAK DECISIVE POINT AROUND 4785 TO 4780 LEVELS TO TEST THE POWER OF THE BULLS AND THE BEARS THERE. IT IS ANY ONES GUESS AS TO WHO WILL WIN THE BATTLE, BUT BEING PART OF THE MEGA BULL PHASE, BULLS WILL GENERALLY WIN 7 OUT OF 10 BATTLES.
as expected, the markets broke out of the rectangle and went up till 4888 & continuously fell from there due to profit booking to close finally at 4819 just 5 point higher than wednesdays close. Now, technically nifty has made 5 consecutive days of +ve closings & should have a mildly negative closing on friday to again move up next week. Although there are many instances of +ve closing for 8 days in a row, yet mostly after 5 days of +ve closings, the indices have a negative closing for at least a day. Interestingly, out of these 5 days of +ve closings, last 3 days of closings have been 4805,4814 & 4819. So one can assume these mildly +ve closings to be actually strong consolidation flat closings to be followed by a mega up move perhaps next week after another mildly +ve or -ve closing on friday.
For intraday trading on friday, bears have some hope of putting the bulls on the mat by bringing down nifty decisively below the critical make or break level of 4780. Should the bears manage to become triumphant in their efforts, then one can see nifty falling like a stone towards 4720 or even 4676 levels. Most likely bulls will go all out to protect the critical level at 4780.last weeks high was at 4744 and last weeks closing was at 4680.so one should not be surprised to see nifty closing just below the highs of last week in order to hide the mega bullish signal that would be indicated for next week if it would close far above the highest point of last week.
Looking at the bullish momentum that the indices are displaying after the breach of previous resistance line around 4770 as well as fibonacci resistance at 4788, even if a deceptive close below these levels by nifty due to the week end considerations, it will in no way prevent nifty in moving towards 5000+ levels in coming days. In fact a correction of this nature will make the indices more stronger for sharper up move next week. Traders & investors must keep in mind that the markets are in for a mega bullish phase in coming weeks & months and every intraday or a day or two of corrections must be made full use of to get into strong buying mode specially in the sectors which are correcting when others are moving up.
VARIOUS LEVELS FOR SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY TRADING ARE :-- ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF 4848 CAN SEE A SHARP UP MOVE TOWARDS 4862. A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 4862 CAN TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS THURSDAYS HIGHS OF 4888 TO BREACH IT AND HAVE A TEST OF 4900 TO GET MERCILESSLY HAMMERED OUT OF SHAPE BY THE BEARS TO RETREAT AT THE FASTEST POSSIBLE SPEED TOWARDS 4850 LEVELS. ON THE LOWER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF 4805 CAN SLIDE NIFTY TOWARDS THE MAKE OR BREAK DECISIVE POINT AROUND 4785 TO 4780 LEVELS TO TEST THE POWER OF THE BULLS AND THE BEARS THERE. IT IS ANY ONES GUESS AS TO WHO WILL WIN THE BATTLE, BUT BEING PART OF THE MEGA BULL PHASE, BULLS WILL GENERALLY WIN 7 OUT OF 10 BATTLES.
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morning update at 8 am 11 sept 09
it was another bullish day for us markets with dow rising by 80 points to reach 9627 only 40 points short of august highs of 9666. S&p500 moved up to reach the level of 1044.european markets which had closed earlier were generally flat with uk ftse closing down by .3%. Brazil continued with its upward march by rising 1%. Asian markets have opened mixed but baring japan & korea which had big rise on thursday and are likely to consolidate, the rest are likely to perform better for the day and most are likely to close in the +ve.
For indian markets, with no negative cues coming from world markets & having corrected towards the end on thursday to close flat and having had 3 days of flat closings, are likely to again open strongly to move up to retest thursdays high of 4888.on thursday, indian markets closed flat where as most of the asian markets baring china had closed highly +ve. So on friday there is every possibility of indian markets to rise even if some asian markets show mild correction.
For trading on friday, on the lower side traders must keep an eye on the initial support around 4805 levels a breach of which may take nifty down towards 4780 levels to see a sharp rebound from here. Similarly on the higher side if the resistance at 4862 is breached, then one can see another new weekly high. Last week nifty had closed in the negative on a week on week basis & since a break out of 4 months of consolidation has occurred, there is every possibility of strong +ve closings for a number of more weeks starting from this week.
Although technically it looks as if indices had 5 consecutive days of +ve closings, but actually out of these 5 days there were 3 days of flat closings. So another sharp up move either on friday or on early next week looks highly probable. So traders and investors may like to use sharp intraday corrections to go long in selected stock futures which had not moved much during this break out for good gains in coming days.
it was another bullish day for us markets with dow rising by 80 points to reach 9627 only 40 points short of august highs of 9666. S&p500 moved up to reach the level of 1044.european markets which had closed earlier were generally flat with uk ftse closing down by .3%. Brazil continued with its upward march by rising 1%. Asian markets have opened mixed but baring japan & korea which had big rise on thursday and are likely to consolidate, the rest are likely to perform better for the day and most are likely to close in the +ve.
For indian markets, with no negative cues coming from world markets & having corrected towards the end on thursday to close flat and having had 3 days of flat closings, are likely to again open strongly to move up to retest thursdays high of 4888.on thursday, indian markets closed flat where as most of the asian markets baring china had closed highly +ve. So on friday there is every possibility of indian markets to rise even if some asian markets show mild correction.
For trading on friday, on the lower side traders must keep an eye on the initial support around 4805 levels a breach of which may take nifty down towards 4780 levels to see a sharp rebound from here. Similarly on the higher side if the resistance at 4862 is breached, then one can see another new weekly high. Last week nifty had closed in the negative on a week on week basis & since a break out of 4 months of consolidation has occurred, there is every possibility of strong +ve closings for a number of more weeks starting from this week.
Although technically it looks as if indices had 5 consecutive days of +ve closings, but actually out of these 5 days there were 3 days of flat closings. So another sharp up move either on friday or on early next week looks highly probable. So traders and investors may like to use sharp intraday corrections to go long in selected stock futures which had not moved much during this break out for good gains in coming days.
weekly markets analysis for week ending 18th september 09
the indices having broken out of the 4 month old resistance around 4750 levels on monday last week, ran out of steam to consolidate within a narrow range and the funniest part was nifty closed within a closing band of just 25 points for 4 days between 4805 on tuesday & 4830 on friday. Although such type of consolidation after a big up move is a pre curser for another much larger up move, yet one has to just wait with a bit of patience till the planets settle down a bit to align favorably to signal the long awaited sharp post break out up move past 5000, towards higher levels.
Unless there are some catastrophic events during the week, the markets most likely will move up during the week to compensate for the sluggishness shown during last trading week. Most likely the coming week may be another bullish week to be followed by another set of flat or consolidation weeks before the fresh result season kicks off from mid october. As of now there are no reasons for the markets to fall & as long as the new bottom formed around 4780(although this new bottom is quite soft & delicate) during the week is not gifted away by the impatient bulls, markets should move up only. Only a decisive breach & close below this 4 times saved bottom around 4780 can take nifty down towards the earlier resistance zone of 4720 to 4750 levels for another sharp rebound from there.
Although a breach of 4780 may encourage intraday or very short term traders to enter short positions, it should not bother long or medium term investors at all & in fact it will be a god sent opportunity for adding more & more long positions of their favorite stocks into their kitty. With encouraging iip numbers, gradual vanishing of fears on swine flu & rain fall scare & slowly trickling in of encouraging news from the govt on economic front should encourage one to boldly go long on every intraday decline or any mild one day or two of corrections for good gains in coming days. As the indices have decisively breached the 4 month old resistance line & have closed above it for 5 days in a row, under normal circumstances, one should see much further up move with this earlier resistance line around 4737 levels acting as a very strong support level.
the indices having broken out of the 4 month old resistance around 4750 levels on monday last week, ran out of steam to consolidate within a narrow range and the funniest part was nifty closed within a closing band of just 25 points for 4 days between 4805 on tuesday & 4830 on friday. Although such type of consolidation after a big up move is a pre curser for another much larger up move, yet one has to just wait with a bit of patience till the planets settle down a bit to align favorably to signal the long awaited sharp post break out up move past 5000, towards higher levels.
Unless there are some catastrophic events during the week, the markets most likely will move up during the week to compensate for the sluggishness shown during last trading week. Most likely the coming week may be another bullish week to be followed by another set of flat or consolidation weeks before the fresh result season kicks off from mid october. As of now there are no reasons for the markets to fall & as long as the new bottom formed around 4780(although this new bottom is quite soft & delicate) during the week is not gifted away by the impatient bulls, markets should move up only. Only a decisive breach & close below this 4 times saved bottom around 4780 can take nifty down towards the earlier resistance zone of 4720 to 4750 levels for another sharp rebound from there.
Although a breach of 4780 may encourage intraday or very short term traders to enter short positions, it should not bother long or medium term investors at all & in fact it will be a god sent opportunity for adding more & more long positions of their favorite stocks into their kitty. With encouraging iip numbers, gradual vanishing of fears on swine flu & rain fall scare & slowly trickling in of encouraging news from the govt on economic front should encourage one to boldly go long on every intraday decline or any mild one day or two of corrections for good gains in coming days. As the indices have decisively breached the 4 month old resistance line & have closed above it for 5 days in a row, under normal circumstances, one should see much further up move with this earlier resistance line around 4737 levels acting as a very strong support level.
weekly technicals for week ending 18th september 09
there is no change to my earlier analysis of monthly charts where all the indicators are giving super bullish signals with both monthly macd & rsi showing the greatest strength that can take indices to much higher levels. In the monthly charts, the month of august has ended with a perfect doji around sensex & nifty levels of 15666 & 4666. Presently indices are trading high above the august months doji which should take the indices to much higher levels unless the indices fall to close below these levels by month end. Other indicators including ma cross over of 13 month ma by 8 month ma as was mentioned last week continue to generate bullish signals in the monthly charts.
In the weekly charts, all the trend following indicators like stochastic, macd, rsi, roc, cci & adx still continue to send bullish signals. Howver the strongest bullish signal in the weekly charts being the weekly closing of nifty at 4830 decisively above 4693 which was the high of the perfect doji which was formed for the week ended 12 june 09.this closure of nifty high above the doji was also accompanied by decisive breach of the resistance line which is a perfect bullish trade setup & is a mega bullish signal to go long on every small decline. This trade set up can only be nullified by a fall in index to close below the resistance line as well as below the low of that doji at 4365 which can only happen under catastrophic circumstances. So, any small fall in indices should be fully used to get into buying mode for good gains in coming weeks. In addition to this mega bullish weekly trade setup, one should not lose sight of 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts that it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks.
The daily charts having closed flat for 4 days in a row, although do not look that encouraging as the weekly & monthly charts, yet, no where the daily indicators have generated a sell signal.200 day moving average has started to bend upwards after remaining flat for many days is a strong bullish signal. In the daily eod chart above, having breached the resistance line around 4750 levels, nifty has formed a cup & handle formation & has broken out of the neck line, which too was also the 4 months old resistance line. Having consolidated and closed above the resistance line for 5 days in a row, under normal circumstances, nifty should move towards much higher levels in coming days till such time it does not crash to close below the support line around 4646 followed by a decisive breach of the swing low around 4580 levels.
So, over all, in spite of 4 days of flat closings last week after having breached the 4 month old resistance line, one should expect a further up move towards 5000 levels in coming days & once the high of last week around 4888 is decisively breached , the doji effect will show accelerated momentum for a sharp up move towards 5000+ levels.
there is no change to my earlier analysis of monthly charts where all the indicators are giving super bullish signals with both monthly macd & rsi showing the greatest strength that can take indices to much higher levels. In the monthly charts, the month of august has ended with a perfect doji around sensex & nifty levels of 15666 & 4666. Presently indices are trading high above the august months doji which should take the indices to much higher levels unless the indices fall to close below these levels by month end. Other indicators including ma cross over of 13 month ma by 8 month ma as was mentioned last week continue to generate bullish signals in the monthly charts.
In the weekly charts, all the trend following indicators like stochastic, macd, rsi, roc, cci & adx still continue to send bullish signals. Howver the strongest bullish signal in the weekly charts being the weekly closing of nifty at 4830 decisively above 4693 which was the high of the perfect doji which was formed for the week ended 12 june 09.this closure of nifty high above the doji was also accompanied by decisive breach of the resistance line which is a perfect bullish trade setup & is a mega bullish signal to go long on every small decline. This trade set up can only be nullified by a fall in index to close below the resistance line as well as below the low of that doji at 4365 which can only happen under catastrophic circumstances. So, any small fall in indices should be fully used to get into buying mode for good gains in coming weeks. In addition to this mega bullish weekly trade setup, one should not lose sight of 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts that it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks.
The daily charts having closed flat for 4 days in a row, although do not look that encouraging as the weekly & monthly charts, yet, no where the daily indicators have generated a sell signal.200 day moving average has started to bend upwards after remaining flat for many days is a strong bullish signal. In the daily eod chart above, having breached the resistance line around 4750 levels, nifty has formed a cup & handle formation & has broken out of the neck line, which too was also the 4 months old resistance line. Having consolidated and closed above the resistance line for 5 days in a row, under normal circumstances, nifty should move towards much higher levels in coming days till such time it does not crash to close below the support line around 4646 followed by a decisive breach of the swing low around 4580 levels.
So, over all, in spite of 4 days of flat closings last week after having breached the 4 month old resistance line, one should expect a further up move towards 5000 levels in coming days & once the high of last week around 4888 is decisively breached , the doji effect will show accelerated momentum for a sharp up move towards 5000+ levels.
elliott wave count for week ending 18th september 09
it has been assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. (please see daily eod chart above)
most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on 19 aug lows of 4353. The 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started from 19 aug 09 lows of 4353.the 1st sub sub leg of this 3rd sub wave was completed around 4744 levels on 28 aug and after a correction till 4580 as the 2nd sub sub leg, nifty has perhaps broken out as 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave on friday 4th sept. As long as nifty does not fall to close below 4580 this upside break out will remain valid for much higher levels towards 5100 levels as part of 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub leg of the 3rd up wave.
it has been assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. (please see daily eod chart above)
most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on 19 aug lows of 4353. The 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started from 19 aug 09 lows of 4353.the 1st sub sub leg of this 3rd sub wave was completed around 4744 levels on 28 aug and after a correction till 4580 as the 2nd sub sub leg, nifty has perhaps broken out as 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave on friday 4th sept. As long as nifty does not fall to close below 4580 this upside break out will remain valid for much higher levels towards 5100 levels as part of 3rd sub sub leg of the 3rd sub leg of the 3rd up wave.
fibonacci levels for nifty during the course of last week,
the indices have decisively crossed fibonacci levels of 16046 & 4788 which was the 61.8% retracement level from the last bull market highs of 21207 & 6357 till the bear market lows of 7697 & 2252.
Having breached the important fibonacci level as above, for further study of fibonacci levels we will confine our studies to the further up sub & sub sub waves which have started from 19th august low of 4353. The 1st sub sub wave 3rd sub wave started from the low of 4353 & went up till 4744 covering a distance of 391 points. The 2nd corrective sub sub wave came down till 4580 levels.
The new 3rd sub sub wave which has started from friday 4th sept low of 4580, can move up to various fibonacci levels of 38.2% till 5120, 50% till 5166 and 61.8% till 5212.on further break down of this up wave from 4580, 1st mini up wave went up till 10 sept high of 4888 covering a distance of 208 points followed by a 4 day of flat 2nd mini wave till the low of 4785.the 3rd up mini wave which perhaps has started late friday 11 sept, will be 1.62 times of the 1st mini up wave of 208 points which should take nifty up by 336 points from 2nd mini wave low of 4785 till 5121 after which there will be another mini 4th wave down correction to be followed by another mini up wave as 5th mini up wave to reach 5166 to 5212 levels to complete this 3rd up sub wave of the 3rd up wave..
the indices have decisively crossed fibonacci levels of 16046 & 4788 which was the 61.8% retracement level from the last bull market highs of 21207 & 6357 till the bear market lows of 7697 & 2252.
Having breached the important fibonacci level as above, for further study of fibonacci levels we will confine our studies to the further up sub & sub sub waves which have started from 19th august low of 4353. The 1st sub sub wave 3rd sub wave started from the low of 4353 & went up till 4744 covering a distance of 391 points. The 2nd corrective sub sub wave came down till 4580 levels.
The new 3rd sub sub wave which has started from friday 4th sept low of 4580, can move up to various fibonacci levels of 38.2% till 5120, 50% till 5166 and 61.8% till 5212.on further break down of this up wave from 4580, 1st mini up wave went up till 10 sept high of 4888 covering a distance of 208 points followed by a 4 day of flat 2nd mini wave till the low of 4785.the 3rd up mini wave which perhaps has started late friday 11 sept, will be 1.62 times of the 1st mini up wave of 208 points which should take nifty up by 336 points from 2nd mini wave low of 4785 till 5121 after which there will be another mini 4th wave down correction to be followed by another mini up wave as 5th mini up wave to reach 5166 to 5212 levels to complete this 3rd up sub wave of the 3rd up wave..
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