Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

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pranayk

Well-Known Member
markets for 16 sept 09

as expected, nifty had a smashing break out after crossing the earlier given initial resistance at 4848 followed by the all important 4862. The critical level at 4862 was the top of the second corrective up wave when nifty had fallen earlier on 10th sept from high of 4888 to a low of 4785. Having breached 4862, the breaching of 4888 was just a formality and having crossed & closed above the earlier high of 4888, now nifty can easily eye for 4950 followed by 5000 in quick time. Although a move towards 5000 nifty levels is not going to be a cake walk, but it will reach there with minor pause or corrections induced by operators through index heavies to weed out weaker hands.

Now indian markets have reached such a stage that any amount of big crash in us or asian markets will have negligible impact on indian markets. Presently the technical status of indian markets are similar to the brazilian index which was from end jan 08 till end may 08 when the entire world markets were falling badly but brazilian index shot up from 53011 to a high of 73920 to make an all time high on 29th may 08.so, traders & investors must make full use of the fall in nifty or sensex induced by us or asian markets to enter boldly for great gains in coming days. With good advance tax numbers declared on tuesday, be sure to see very good quarterly numbers for qe sept.

For intraday trading on wednesday, there is every possibility of nifty moving up to test the 4950 levels to shorten the distance for the short term target of magic 5000.the critical level at 4862 will provide a strong support for nifty to spring into action towards 5000 levels & unless there are catastrophic events in between, one should not be surprised to see expiry closing of nifty around 5000 levels. On tuesday nifty has formed a strong white candle that has decisively closed above the highest points of all the 3 dojis formed on 9th, 10th & 11th sept which generally should take nifty to much higher levels in quick time.

On a larger scale, in the daily eod chart the break out of the cup & handle formation resistance around 4747 can easily take nifty towards 5500 levels which is the distance between depth of the cup with base at 3919 and neck line around 4747. So, one should look for a correction to go further long in markets for good gains. For intraday trading on wednesday, a breach of 4909 can see another rocket type up move towards 4950 nifty levels & in case nifty sustains above 4949 then one should not be surprised to see nifty even surpassing 5000 levels to head for 5100 in just a few days time. The present 3rd sub sub wave of the 3rd up sub wave is a mad bull & it just runs & runs without fear and jumps over any resistance that comes on its way.
 
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aid

Active Member
MARKETS FOR 16 SEPT 09

AS EXPECTED, NIFTY HAD A SMASHING BREAK OUT AFTER CROSSING THE EARLIER GIVEN INITIAL RESISTANCE AT 4848 FOLLOWED BY THE ALL IMPORTANT 4862. THE CRITICAL LEVEL AT 4862 WAS THE TOP OF THE SECOND CORRECTIVE UP WAVE WHEN NIFTY HAD FALLEN EARLIER ON 10TH SEPT FROM HIGH OF 4888 TO A LOW OF 4785. HAVING BREACHED 4862, THE BREACHING OF 4888 WAS JUST A FORMALITY AND HAVING CROSSED & CLOSED ABOVE THE EARLIER HIGH OF 4888, NOW NIFTY CAN EASILY EYE FOR 4950 FOLLOWED BY 5000 IN QUICK TIME. ALTHOUGH A MOVE TOWARDS 5000 NIFTY LEVELS IS NOT GOING TO BE A CAKE WALK, BUT IT WILL REACH THERE WITH MINOR PAUSE OR CORRECTIONS INDUCED BY OPERATORS THROUGH INDEX HEAVIES TO WEED OUT WEAKER HANDS.

NOW INDIAN MARKETS HAVE REACHED SUCH A STAGE THAT ANY AMOUNT OF BIG CRASH IN US OR ASIAN MARKETS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON INDIAN MARKETS. PRESENTLY THE TECHNICAL STATUS OF INDIAN MARKETS ARE SIMILAR TO THE BRAZILIAN INDEX WHICH WAS FROM END JAN 08 TILL END MAY 08 WHEN THE ENTIRE WORLD MARKETS WERE FALLING BADLY BUT BRAZILIAN INDEX SHOT UP FROM 53011 TO A HIGH OF 73920 TO MAKE AN ALL TIME HIGH ON 29TH MAY 08.SO, TRADERS & INVESTORS MUST MAKE FULL USE OF THE FALL IN NIFTY OR SENSEX INDUCED BY US OR ASIAN MARKETS TO ENTER BOLDLY FOR GREAT GAINS IN COMING DAYS. WITH GOOD ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS DECLARED ON TUESDAY, BE SURE TO SEE VERY GOOD QUARTERLY NUMBERS FOR QE SEPT.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF NIFTY MOVING UP TO TEST THE 4950 LEVELS TO SHORTEN THE DISTANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF MAGIC 5000.THE CRITICAL LEVEL AT 4862 WILL PROVIDE A STRONG SUPPORT FOR NIFTY TO SPRING INTO ACTION TOWARDS 5000 LEVELS & UNLESS THERE ARE CATASTROPHIC EVENTS IN BETWEEN, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE EXPIRY CLOSING OF NIFTY AROUND 5000 LEVELS. ON TUESDAY NIFTY HAS FORMED A STRONG WHITE CANDLE THAT HAS DECISIVELY CLOSED ABOVE THE HIGHEST POINTS OF ALL THE 3 DOJIS FORMED ON 9TH, 10TH & 11TH SEPT WHICH GENERALLY SHOULD TAKE NIFTY TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS IN QUICK TIME.

ON A LARGER SCALE, IN THE DAILY EOD CHART THE BREAK OUT OF THE CUP & HANDLE FORMATION RESISTANCE AROUND 4747 CAN EASILY TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS 4500 LEVELS WHICH IS THE DEPTH OF THE CUP WITH BASE AT 3919 AND NECK LINE AROUND 4747. SO, ONE SHOULD LOOK FOR A CORRECTION TO GO FURTHER LONG IN MARKETS FOR GOOD gains
Hi Pranay ,
Nice to see the analysis in Caps , as it reflects the confidence of you which in term makes the follower like me more confident.
Still it's not looking good visually.Better you can use the combination of upper and lower case and color codes.
Just a suggestion ......:p
Keep up the good job.:thumb:
 

pranayk

Well-Known Member
Hi Pranayk

I want learn about options, if possible explain me(I am having almost zero knowledge about market).



Option trading can provide a great range of possibilities for those who risk to become a participant of the market. However, even if you believe that option trading is not for you, do not neglect this article as it will explain some most important terms of option trading vocabulary.

First of all, let us consider the world “option”. Basically, it is a contract upon conclusion of which you may choose (opt) what to do with an asset (usually, block of stocks) underlying it.

Look at the following example: you are about to buy a violin for your daughter who takes music classes. Having studied the offerings, you pick an instrument from a flea market. It costs $50. Yet you cannot decide for sure whether to buy it or not. So you conclude a contract with the owner giving you an opportunity to purchase it by the end of a set term (say, a week, though in reality it is usually about 3 months) for these $50 (the strike price). We pay $5 for this option. In option trading, option's total cost , the premium, is determined by such factors as the asset price, strike price and time remaining until expiration. Now you are the option holder and have the right, but not the obligation to buy it within the agreed period of time.

Two days later, it is discovered that the violin used to belong to a great musician and is of great cultural value. Its price immediately soars up to $500. As you have the option to buy it for $50 you quickly exercise it. The former violin owner (the writer) is obligated to sell it now. Your profit here equals $445, which is $500 - $50 (strike price) - $5 (option price). Your call option (in option trading call is another word for buy) is in the money. Should the violin turn out to be a low-quality fake, you wouldn't have to purchase it, losing only $5 at that.

On the other hand, you could have bought a put option to sell your house for $50,000. In case taps were running, the roof leaking and the floor creaking in a month, the price would naturally fall. Yet the buyer would have to pay $50,000 for it anyway.

The above may be too blatant examples, but they explain the nature of option trading for beginners to get some basic idea.


THIS IS BASIC IDEA, CAN ANYBODY EXPLAIN IT BETTER?
 
Option trading can provide a great range of possibilities for those who risk to become a participant of the market. However, even if you believe that option trading is not for you, do not neglect this article as it will explain some most important terms of option trading vocabulary.

First of all, let us consider the world option. Basically, it is a contract upon conclusion of which you may choose (opt) what to do with an asset (usually, block of stocks) underlying it.

Look at the following example: you are about to buy a violin for your daughter who takes music classes. Having studied the offerings, you pick an instrument from a flea market. It costs $50. Yet you cannot decide for sure whether to buy it or not. So you conclude a contract with the owner giving you an opportunity to purchase it by the end of a set term (say, a week, though in reality it is usually about 3 months) for these $50 (the strike price). We pay $5 for this option. In option trading, option's total cost , the premium, is determined by such factors as the asset price, strike price and time remaining until expiration. Now you are the option holder and have the right, but not the obligation to buy it within the agreed period of time.

Two days later, it is discovered that the violin used to belong to a great musician and is of great cultural value. Its price immediately soars up to $500. As you have the option to buy it for $50 you quickly exercise it. The former violin owner (the writer) is obligated to sell it now. Your profit here equals $445, which is $500 - $50 (strike price) - $5 (option price). Your call option (in option trading call is another word for buy) is in the money. Should the violin turn out to be a low-quality fake, you wouldn't have to purchase it, losing only $5 at that.

On the other hand, you could have bought a put option to sell your house for $50,000. In case taps were running, the roof leaking and the floor creaking in a month, the price would naturally fall. Yet the buyer would have to pay $50,000 for it anyway.

The above may be too blatant examples, but they explain the nature of option trading for beginners to get some basic idea.


THIS IS BASIC IDEA, CAN ANYBODY EXPLAIN IT BETTER?
Great explanation! keep it up man.:clapping:

@ eshwar

though in practical market people speculate on premium only.
 

pranayk

Well-Known Member
morning update at 8 am 16 sept 09

world markets have also started to re enter the bullish momentum with dow rising by 56 points to cross the critical resistance around 9666 to close at 9683. Nasdaq crossed to close above the 2100 mark & more importantly s&p500 went up to close at 1052. European markets were up between .5% to 1% with uk ftse closing up by .5%. Brazil continued with its upward march to gain .7%. Asian markets have opened strong and baring china, rest may close highly bullish for next few days as part of fresh break out up move.

For indian markets, expect the bullish momentum to continue the break out up move. The piercing line candles in the 5 minute chart around 2.35 pm on tuesday should take nifty towards 4927 or even 4957 after breaching 4909 levels. Traders must buy on every intraday decline and 4860 levels will provide a very strong support. Certain stocks of cement and pharma sectors which have been suppressed by operators and have been subdued for a number of weeks may be released by the operators and may shoot up to cross last months highs.

Acc had made a high of 929 on 5th august has been ruthlessly suppressed by operators and is trading around 770 levels. Long term investors may boldly buy this operators infected stock for very quick gains. Similarly cipla the "pharma gold mine" after making a high of 295 on 10th august is trading around 265. Long term investors should accumulate these two operators suppressed stocks on every decline from now onwards for sharp gains by end of this month or early next month .
 
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