Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
- Start date
- Status
markets for 18 sept 09
the well deserved pause came, thanks to a well coordinated & well executed 5% fall in index heavy reliance that brought down nifty to close lower, although the last 30 minute averaging made it look to be mildly +ve of 7 points. The shape of things started by reliance indicate that there is every possibility of another day of pause on friday also. The markets on its own look extremely bullish and after this flat type pause of another day or two is over, one will see same reliance industry will take the indices up to much higher levels.
Technically, most of the world markets look extremely bullish and are in for another sharp up move next week after a day of pause on friday. Long term investors must make full use of this type of falls as was seen on thursday, to add to their investment kitty. As per daily eod chart above, important indicator slow stochastic has turned up before entering the lower half, which is another bullish signal but operators may prevent the indicator from entering the upper zone so early, that will confirm the mega bullish signal. So, one must be prepared to see ruthless operator action in hand in gloves with an index heavy to stall the up move to have the indicators look bearish, only to take it up through a gap up open on an unexpected day after liquidating weaker hands. Trades & investors must keep in mind that the decisive break out of 4750 levels from the 4 month old consolidation is a mega bullish signal and the break out of the neck line of cup handle will definitely take it above 5500 in coming weeks, hence make full use of every fall to add longs.
For intraday trading on friday, nifty finds initial support around 4949 to 4945, a decisive breach of which can easily see a bigger fall in nifty as it will activate a h&s formation that can bring down nifty initially towards 4920 followed by 4900 to cover entire gap till 4900 or even lower levels. Secondly last weeks high was at 4888, so in order to thwart a clear bullish indication by closing above the high of last week, operators with their easily available favorite ril, may try to pull down nifty to close at a level very near to or lower than last weeks high of 4888.this is the right opportunity for long term investors to add longs to their kitty. On the higher side nifty has solid resistance around 4989 levels a decisive cross over of which may easily take nifty towards 5020 oe even higher levels.
the well deserved pause came, thanks to a well coordinated & well executed 5% fall in index heavy reliance that brought down nifty to close lower, although the last 30 minute averaging made it look to be mildly +ve of 7 points. The shape of things started by reliance indicate that there is every possibility of another day of pause on friday also. The markets on its own look extremely bullish and after this flat type pause of another day or two is over, one will see same reliance industry will take the indices up to much higher levels.
Technically, most of the world markets look extremely bullish and are in for another sharp up move next week after a day of pause on friday. Long term investors must make full use of this type of falls as was seen on thursday, to add to their investment kitty. As per daily eod chart above, important indicator slow stochastic has turned up before entering the lower half, which is another bullish signal but operators may prevent the indicator from entering the upper zone so early, that will confirm the mega bullish signal. So, one must be prepared to see ruthless operator action in hand in gloves with an index heavy to stall the up move to have the indicators look bearish, only to take it up through a gap up open on an unexpected day after liquidating weaker hands. Trades & investors must keep in mind that the decisive break out of 4750 levels from the 4 month old consolidation is a mega bullish signal and the break out of the neck line of cup handle will definitely take it above 5500 in coming weeks, hence make full use of every fall to add longs.
For intraday trading on friday, nifty finds initial support around 4949 to 4945, a decisive breach of which can easily see a bigger fall in nifty as it will activate a h&s formation that can bring down nifty initially towards 4920 followed by 4900 to cover entire gap till 4900 or even lower levels. Secondly last weeks high was at 4888, so in order to thwart a clear bullish indication by closing above the high of last week, operators with their easily available favorite ril, may try to pull down nifty to close at a level very near to or lower than last weeks high of 4888.this is the right opportunity for long term investors to add longs to their kitty. On the higher side nifty has solid resistance around 4989 levels a decisive cross over of which may easily take nifty towards 5020 oe even higher levels.
SOME INTERESTING FACTS
In the 12th century, Leonardo Fibonacci discovered a simple numerical series that is the foundation for an incredible mathematical relationship behind phi.
Starting with 0 and 1, each new number in the series is simply the sum of the two before it.
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, . . .
The ratio of each successive pair of numbers in the series approximates phi (1.618. . .) , as 5 divided by 3 is 1.666..., and 8 divided by 5 is 1.60.
The table below shows how the ratios of the successive numbers in the Fibonacci series quickly converge on Phi. After the 40th number in the series, the ratio is accurate to 15 decimal places.
1.62 Is The Key Level As Per This..
Now Some Data On Sensex Levels
Sensex Made A High Of 16002.46 On 4 August 2009
After That Correction Happened In Market & Sensex Made A Low Of 14684.45 On 19 August 2009
So Total Fall In Sensex In Points
16002.46 - 14684.45 = 1318.01
From 14684.45 Sensex Made New High Today @ 16820.02
Total Upmove In Sensex From Recent Low
16820.02 - 14684.45 = 2135.57
Now Read Carefully Calculation Of Fibonacci
Last Fall In Sensex = 1318.01 Points
FIBONACCI Level = 1.62
{Hope You Already Read Above On Fibonnaci Level }
Sensex Upmove Always 1.62 Times Of Last Downfall As Per Fibonacci.
1318.01 * 1.62 = 2135.17
Latest Upmove = 2135.57 Points
Just 0.40 Points Above 2135.17 { Hai Naa Magic }
Sensex UpMove Exact As Per The Fibonacci Level.
Today Sensex Made A High Of 16820.02 And After That Sudden Fall And Sensex Made A Low Of 16636.55 And Finally Closes @ 16711.11
If Sensex Not Close Above 16820.02 Which Is Today High Then We May See Correction As Per This Theory
I Feel 16500 - 16510 Is Good Stop Loss Zone For All Long Position.
As Per This Theory If A Correction Happened In Market Then It Will Be 1.62 Times Of Total Upmove
Latest Upmove = 2135 Points
2135 * 1.62 = 3458 Points
16820 ( Today High ) - 3458 ( 1.62 Times Of Latest Upmove ) = 13362
Below 16500 We May See Some Correction Upto 13500 As Per This Theory
So As Suggested Earlier Book Proffit On Every Upmove And Generate Cash.....
In the 12th century, Leonardo Fibonacci discovered a simple numerical series that is the foundation for an incredible mathematical relationship behind phi.
Starting with 0 and 1, each new number in the series is simply the sum of the two before it.
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, . . .
The ratio of each successive pair of numbers in the series approximates phi (1.618. . .) , as 5 divided by 3 is 1.666..., and 8 divided by 5 is 1.60.
The table below shows how the ratios of the successive numbers in the Fibonacci series quickly converge on Phi. After the 40th number in the series, the ratio is accurate to 15 decimal places.
1.62 Is The Key Level As Per This..
Now Some Data On Sensex Levels
Sensex Made A High Of 16002.46 On 4 August 2009
After That Correction Happened In Market & Sensex Made A Low Of 14684.45 On 19 August 2009
So Total Fall In Sensex In Points
16002.46 - 14684.45 = 1318.01
From 14684.45 Sensex Made New High Today @ 16820.02
Total Upmove In Sensex From Recent Low
16820.02 - 14684.45 = 2135.57
Now Read Carefully Calculation Of Fibonacci
Last Fall In Sensex = 1318.01 Points
FIBONACCI Level = 1.62
{Hope You Already Read Above On Fibonnaci Level }
Sensex Upmove Always 1.62 Times Of Last Downfall As Per Fibonacci.
1318.01 * 1.62 = 2135.17
Latest Upmove = 2135.57 Points
Just 0.40 Points Above 2135.17 { Hai Naa Magic }
Sensex UpMove Exact As Per The Fibonacci Level.
Today Sensex Made A High Of 16820.02 And After That Sudden Fall And Sensex Made A Low Of 16636.55 And Finally Closes @ 16711.11
If Sensex Not Close Above 16820.02 Which Is Today High Then We May See Correction As Per This Theory
I Feel 16500 - 16510 Is Good Stop Loss Zone For All Long Position.
As Per This Theory If A Correction Happened In Market Then It Will Be 1.62 Times Of Total Upmove
Latest Upmove = 2135 Points
2135 * 1.62 = 3458 Points
16820 ( Today High ) - 3458 ( 1.62 Times Of Latest Upmove ) = 13362
Below 16500 We May See Some Correction Upto 13500 As Per This Theory
So As Suggested Earlier Book Proffit On Every Upmove And Generate Cash.....
Hello Pranay,
So how does this Sensex Fibonacci facts you penned...gel with the markets update where you suggest that one should go long on the Nifty above 4888? Just a little confused....if we have already made a high on the sensex...then how are we to go higher based on the fibonacci concept?
hope to hear from you..
So how does this Sensex Fibonacci facts you penned...gel with the markets update where you suggest that one should go long on the Nifty above 4888? Just a little confused....if we have already made a high on the sensex...then how are we to go higher based on the fibonacci concept?
hope to hear from you..
These are statistical data and not necessarily market will react per them, look at the PCR (put/call ratio) which suggest that 4900 is the strong base and 5100 is what majority is expecting to cross by expiry...
Here are some more statistical data... and you might want to compare the results of both
Here are some more statistical data... and you might want to compare the results of both
This was not a relentless rally first of all as every one is saying see the chart as we took two breaks already of 3 months each and then rally for one month
Here are some statistical data and my prediction might sound unrealistic but very much possible.
Nifty corrected all the way down to 27 Oct.s low of 2525 and then consolidated in a narrow 500-550 points range with upside capped at 3100 a consolidation of around 18-20%
Then we had a breakout on the upside and take Nifty up 25% within a month from 3100 to form a base at 3900
We then again started to consolidate from 18 may to 4 Sept. in a range of 1000 points it might sound a big range but actually it was again a range of 18%
Now we had a breakout once again everything is positive and if we have to see even 15% gains from 4700 levels that takes us to 5400 levels, follow the green line to see the Nifty expiring above 5100.
Sounds realistic? Can we do it 3rd time? I am not sure and not asking you to bet on it but the future certainly looks great.
Here are some statistical data and my prediction might sound unrealistic but very much possible.
Nifty corrected all the way down to 27 Oct.s low of 2525 and then consolidated in a narrow 500-550 points range with upside capped at 3100 a consolidation of around 18-20%
Then we had a breakout on the upside and take Nifty up 25% within a month from 3100 to form a base at 3900
We then again started to consolidate from 18 may to 4 Sept. in a range of 1000 points it might sound a big range but actually it was again a range of 18%
Now we had a breakout once again everything is positive and if we have to see even 15% gains from 4700 levels that takes us to 5400 levels, follow the green line to see the Nifty expiring above 5100.
Sounds realistic? Can we do it 3rd time? I am not sure and not asking you to bet on it but the future certainly looks great.
Hi Pranay,
I tried with Nifty also..
High in Aug: 4731
Low in Aug: 4350
Total Correction = 4731 - 4350 = 381
Upmove from 4350 till 5003 (today)
Total Upmove: 653
Hence, Downmove * 1.62 = 381*1.62 = 617.22 (40 points down from total upmove).
But if we take based on closing basis:
Previous Low (4350) + 617.22 (381*1.62) = 4967.22 (near to today's closing).
So, my doubt is do we take 4967 / 5003 levels to watch for correction if not able to trade above it?
Yea...another downmove = 653 * 1.62 = 1057 i.e. (5003-1057) = 3945 nifty level (aprx near to june lows i think)...
Am I correct in all these calculations?
One more doubt, we saw that in few days nifty corrected from 4731 to 4350 and it took a month to reach 5000 level. If at all we see correction, whether it will be sharp correction i.e. in few days??
I tried with Nifty also..
High in Aug: 4731
Low in Aug: 4350
Total Correction = 4731 - 4350 = 381
Upmove from 4350 till 5003 (today)
Total Upmove: 653
Hence, Downmove * 1.62 = 381*1.62 = 617.22 (40 points down from total upmove).
But if we take based on closing basis:
Previous Low (4350) + 617.22 (381*1.62) = 4967.22 (near to today's closing).
So, my doubt is do we take 4967 / 5003 levels to watch for correction if not able to trade above it?
Yea...another downmove = 653 * 1.62 = 1057 i.e. (5003-1057) = 3945 nifty level (aprx near to june lows i think)...
Am I correct in all these calculations?
One more doubt, we saw that in few days nifty corrected from 4731 to 4350 and it took a month to reach 5000 level. If at all we see correction, whether it will be sharp correction i.e. in few days??
morning update at 8 am 18 sept 09
the lead given by indian markets to pause was followed by us markets & they too had a pause with dow closing flat by just 7 points down. Dow futures were +ve for the day that gave a boost to most asian markets & initial rise of dow by 60 points +ve, gave a boost to european markets which closed in the +ve around 1% with uk ftse rising by .8%. Most of the asian markets which were highly bullish yesterday will pause today & may close flat to mildly in the red to sharply shoot up next week even against dows deceptive fall or another flat on friday night.
For indian markets, expect the pause to continue with a mildly negative bias. Traders & investors must keep in mind that, this pause will make most of the world markets to again bounce with strength from next week to resume the bull run. Nifty may find strong support around yesterdays lows of 4950 to 4940 levels, below which only weakness may be seen to fall toward 4900 or lower levels. On the higher side bulls will regain strength if nifty trades above 4989 that will initiate short covering which can take nifty further up towards 5020 levels from where profit booking may be seen. Sectors which were highly bullish during the week may take a well deserved pause and dormant sectors may move higher to catch up with the rest. At 7 a.m. Ist, sgx nifty with 20 -ve with a volume of only 2 is the first signal that operators are ready for pulling nifty down on friday.
the lead given by indian markets to pause was followed by us markets & they too had a pause with dow closing flat by just 7 points down. Dow futures were +ve for the day that gave a boost to most asian markets & initial rise of dow by 60 points +ve, gave a boost to european markets which closed in the +ve around 1% with uk ftse rising by .8%. Most of the asian markets which were highly bullish yesterday will pause today & may close flat to mildly in the red to sharply shoot up next week even against dows deceptive fall or another flat on friday night.
For indian markets, expect the pause to continue with a mildly negative bias. Traders & investors must keep in mind that, this pause will make most of the world markets to again bounce with strength from next week to resume the bull run. Nifty may find strong support around yesterdays lows of 4950 to 4940 levels, below which only weakness may be seen to fall toward 4900 or lower levels. On the higher side bulls will regain strength if nifty trades above 4989 that will initiate short covering which can take nifty further up towards 5020 levels from where profit booking may be seen. Sectors which were highly bullish during the week may take a well deserved pause and dormant sectors may move higher to catch up with the rest. At 7 a.m. Ist, sgx nifty with 20 -ve with a volume of only 2 is the first signal that operators are ready for pulling nifty down on friday.
- Status
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Morning Star | Technical Analysis | 0 | |
| R | What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning | General Trading & Investing Chat | 2 | |
| A | How to avoid morning gaps ? | Trading Diary | 5 | |
| S | A GREAT Morning to All | Introductions | 0 | |
| M | good morning traderji.com | Introductions | 0 |
Similar threads
-
-
What you feel is nifty going to open negatively positively or flat Monday morning
- Started by Rash123456789
- Replies: 2
-
-
-