markets for 14 sept 09
the new week opens on monday at the back drop of +ve news on monsoon front that may wipe off much of the drought fears. Also the strength shown by the bulls to keep the bears at bay from taking control of the markets to pull down nifty below the critical 4785 levels will be an added advantage as nifty has taken support around 4785 levels at least 5 times during last 3 trading days. So, after crossing of the recent high of 4888, the support at 4785 will become a new swing low that will form a spring board for further up move towards 5000+ levels in quick time.
In the daily eod chart above, the hook formed by 8 dma just touching 13 dma on 10th sept and turning upwards without breaching 13 dma is a strong short term bullish signal. Besides this if one has a look at the intraday charts of lower time frames of 5,15,30 or even 60 minutes, one will notice that nse index has breached the intraday resistance line on friday at 4828 to close above it at 4830.so on monday morning, if there are no nasty surprises from asian markets, one can easily hope for the retest of last mondays highs of 4888 to go into 4900 zone. Even if asian markets remain weak or lack luster, then after an initial mild intraday correction, nifty should move up.
For intraday trading on monday, nse index has support around 4820 to 4815 levels, a decisive breach of which may take the index down towards 4790 to 4785 zone for a good bounce. On the higher side a cross over of 4848 may take the index towards important intraday resistance around 4862 levels a breach and sustaining above which will take the index to much higher levels towards 4900+ by passing recent 10th september high of 4888.
In spite of all the bullish expectations, traders must be fully prepared for the operators driven surprise element where one suddenly finds most of the asian markets open deep in the red followed by operators favorite sgx nifty too in deep red to induce a negative opening in indian markets. This has happened many a times in the past and very much possible. Well, if that is the case, then one should not jump into the game initially but should wait till 1.30 pm to take stock of the situation after opening of the european markets. In any case bull should have a ball in case nifty breaches and sustains above 4862 & bears may dance to their glory in case nifty decisively breaches 4780 levels.
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