Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 08 oct 09

last night dow closed absolutely flat at just 5 points in negative although nasdaq & s&p500 had minor gains. European markets which had closed when dow was trading 50 points in the red, generally closed in the red with uk ftse down by .6%. Brazil closed absolutely flat. Asian markets have opened milder and may continue with their yesterdays gains to be +ve for thursday.

If one sees the indian markets this week and compares with other world markets, one will notice that indian markets have been the worst performers this week. After last weeks closing at 5083, nifty has already lost around 2% on a closing basis till wednesdays close of 4985.actually this correction is a welcome pause for further up move and investors should take advantage of any further decline to add longs.

For intraday trading on thursday, since the markets had closed around the lowest point of the day on wednesday, there is every possibility of substantial recovery. So one can expect the low of wednesday at 4973 to provide strong support to nifty. Only a breach of 4970 can bring down nifty to next support around 4952 a breach of which can take it down to 4925 levels from where solid buying may be expected. As the indicators in the intraday time frames look oversold, there is every possibility of rise in nifty from the start itself after a minor fear generating decline. Similarly on the higher side 5005 may be the initial resistance followed by 5016 to 5020. In case 5020 is decisively breached then there is every possibility of nifty rising to the next resistance of 5040 where it meets a tsunami of par-sars. As long as nse index does not decisively cross 5077 and sustains above it, chances of crossing 5100 to move towards 5200 may remain a distant dream for nifty.

Incase of a further decline of markets after the open, traders may boldly write (short) 4800 puts and buy 5000 calls and hold these for next week. Mining and metal stocks still have a lot of energy to move up further. Accumulate tech, metals, infra & oil & gas exploration & brokerage stocks on every decline for very good gains next week.

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

 

[pranayk]

markets for 09 oct 09


as was mentioned yesterday, the low of wednesday at 4973 provided the required support for nifty & bulls snatched the initiative from the bears from there on till 5043 levels and handed over the nifty on a platter to the operators again to carry on with their daily action. In fact bulls were shell scared to carry the longs with fear of infy results that may disappoint for the first time without nn. In any case after the bonus issue announcement by reliance having been neutralized by operators action on thursday, even if infy announces a luke warm result with sugar coated post result discussion, operators are all set to bring down the markets to the critical level of 4930 to 4920 nifty levels only to be protected to some extent by other index heavy bharti & l&t and some face saving rear guard action by reliance.

Traders must keep one thing in mind that last week nifty had a weekly closing at 5083 and had a weekly low of 4984. So operators are all set to close nifty below the low of last week to induce a bearish feeling amongst weaker hands. False & induced fear for the month of october & infy results are all tailor made occasion for the operators to achieve their aim of flushing out weaker hands by generating artificial fear in their minds. However if bull are rigid & determined not to give away to the pressure by external operators, then they can spring the biggest surprise irrespective of results of infy by taking up nifty high above 5044 towards sumo wrestlers sitting at 5077 to shoot past last weeks closing of 5084 towards 5100.but do indian bulls have the guts to fight external operators, perhaps not, at least not during this week, may be next week.

For intraday trading on friday, nifty has initial support around 4971, a breach of which may take nifty towards next support around 4950 followed by fearful support level of 4925 to 4920. If bulls are scared to protect this level of 4920, then they can pack up and go home as external operators will have what they want by breaching the all important make or break support at 4904 levels to create havoc with nifty. However if bulls dont give up to operators pressure and stay firm, then low of thursday at4973 may remain where it is and nifty may shoot up to make a new yearly high around 5100 levels on friday itself to surprise every one. Long & medium term investors should make full use of this operator driven fall in markets to accumulate metals, infra, oil & gas together with good banking & tech stocks for good gains

IF ONE HAS A LOOK AT THE HOURLY CHART ABOVE, ONE CAN NOTICE A GOOD TRIANGLE WITH BASE AROUND 4988 AND RESISTANCE AROUND 5035. SO ANY SIDE BREACH CAN SEE A GOOD MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF BREACH. SIMILARLY THERE IS ALSO A RECTANGLE WITH RESISTANCE AROUND 5044 AND BASE AROUND 4971. SO A DECISIVE BREACH OF EITHER THE BASE AT 4971 OR THE RESISTANCE AROUND 5044 CAN SEE A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE BREACH. SIMILARLY IN THE DAILY EOD CHART OF NIFTY THURSDAY WAS AN INSIDE BAR WITHIN THE WEDNESDAYS HIGH OF 5077 & LOW OF 4971. SO ON FRIDAY A DECISIVE BREACH OF THE LOW OF 4971 OR HIGH OF 5077 CAN SEE SUBSTANTIAL MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF BREACH.

 

[devrishi81]

thank you so much

 

[manzzu]

Hello Friends,

Would like to share how I benefited from Pranay's guidance.

I purchased ONGC at 1165 few days back as per his view of buying Oil stocks. Look, today it made a high of 1224.

I also wrote 4800 put as advised by him at 71 and covered it at 57.
I also bought 5000 call and got amazing profits.

Thank you so much Pranay...May God Bless You in tons!!:hap2:

Best Wishes,
Manju

 

[Class]

Hey Pranayk,

If you look out of your window in the morning and see a black BMW with blacked out windows and 4 guys in black suits and sunglasses.... it's the operators come to get you :clapping: Take cover!! :lol:

All the best, great commentary.
Cheers.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 09 oct 09

as expected, dow which was trading more than 100 points when european markets were trading, changed gear after european markets closed but still managed to close 60 points up. Most of the european markets closed nearly 1.5% up but uk ftse sensing the motive of dow operators closed less than 1% up at .9% +ve. Brazil the emerging market like india continued with its mega bull run with another 1.8% rise. Asian markets have opened +ve but dow operators spread in these markets may not allow for a substantial rise & most of asian markets may close flat to mixed after a dow induced +ve opening in these markets.

For indian markets, the opening will be highly dependent on infy results but will be short lived like was the case of reliance bonus announcement on thursday. Although technically the markets are ripe for a mega blast off rise, operator action may prevent a good rise in indian markets this week and most likely this week will be a negative week (closing lower than last weeks closing of 5083)for indian indices as against highly +ve weekly closings of most of the world markets.

Traders may keep a close eye on the support at 4970 which if broken will see a big fall towards weekly lows of 4920. The hammer formed on tuesday 6th october in the daily eod charts may be effective from next week as the operators have taken away the iron head of the hammer leaving only the wooden handle in the hands of the bulls to rotate it & be happy. Every time the bulls try to take the index above 5050, the operators come charging in & as the operators have a number of veterinary doctors with them, the bulls quickly run away for cover.

For intraday trading on friday, incase nifty falls and trades below 4970, one can short for at least 50 point gain in nifty. However if nifty sustains above 5000 levels, one can remain long with must quit below 4970 or 4960 levels (this 10 point grace is basically to cater for operators stop loss clearance action at 4970). Should nifty manage to cross 5038 or more importantly 5044, then one can add longs till 5075 levels with a hurdle around 5055 levels & should nifty cross 5055 & move to cross & sustain sustain above 5077 levels then one can add more longs to see a +ve weekly closing above last weeks closing of 5083.however keep in mind the operators action to do just the reverse to what the general consensus is on the day. Investors should have some money left to accumulate telecom stocks from next week although friday afternoon may start the recovery in these stocks which are mercilessly hammered out of shape this week.

 

[pranayk]

I HAVE TO DELETE PREVIOUS CHART TO INSERT NEW CHART AS ALLOCATED SPACE PROVIDED FOR .PNG .JPG .XLS etc GETS EXHAUSTED.

CAN ANYBODY HELP ME OUT IN THIS CASE?

 

[Capricorn]

Go to imageshack upload your chart and post the hotlink.

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis