Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[manish733]

great thread Pranay, keep up the wonderful work:thumb:

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

 

[pranayk]

markets for 14 oct

on monday the markets opened with a bang and continued with it till the critical resistance around 5077 was reached. The fact that nifty could not cross the resistance at 5077, makes this resistance a hard nut to crack. Failure to decisively cross the critical resistance around 5077 may see a mild correction in nifty towards 5040 to 5028 levels where bulls may try to muster enough strength to take nifty above 5077 towards 5100+ levels.

The fresh up move that has started from monday this week, should under normal circumstances take nifty above 5200 levels in quick time and a cross over of 5077 can enable nifty to skip 70 to 80 points in one go to straight hit for next resistance around 5166 levels. So, incase traders find nifty crossing 5077, they can easily go long to by pass this months earlier highs of 5099 to 5111 in the twinkling of an eye. However a wider stop loss around the level of 5040 should be in place. Although in bull markets the only losers are the traders who are very fond of stop losses, yet it is wiser to apply stop loss but must re enter around next intraday swing low to be back in the game again.

On the lower side as long as nifty sustains above 4965 levels, the low which was generated just after the announcement of iip numbers, it can always move up to make newer highs in coming days. A fall below 5025 towards 5000 levels may be the first indication that things are cooking up for a threatening fall towards the critical lower level of 4965.the support line from 6th october lows of 4921 through 9th october lows of 4934 comes to 4940 and mondays intraday upward moving support line from the low of 4934 through iip number low at 4965 comes to around 4988. So as long as this support line is not decisively breached, traders may confidently remain long for higher levels.

In the hourly chart above, important indicator macd is making all its efforts to cross the neutral line & if that happens during initial hour then the expected sharp up move may materialize. However in the 15 minute time frame chart, a perfect pin bar around the end of the day suggests initial correction towards 5030 or at the worst towards 5005 levels to be followed by the expected up move.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 14 oct 09

if one sees dow for last 2 days from night of 13th, it has actually remained flat. European markets which closed when dow was trading more than 50 points in the red, closed nearly 1% down with uk ftse falling by 1%. Brazil continued with its relentless up move with another 1% rise last night. Asian markets have opened mixed to mildly weak but will pick up after the opening of indian markets.

For indian markets, one can safely assume to see a mild correction, as on monday nifty had a big rise and closed near the highest point of the day. After the mild correction to around 5030 levels, nifty most likely will move up to make another attempt at crossing the critical resistance around 5077 levels & may be successful this time in the 2nd attempt to breach it and shoot past 5100 levels.

Traders may go long on intraday decline of markets towards 5040 or 5030 levels with a quit point around 5010 index levels to re enter again around 4990 levels. In case of initial decline of markets, traders may accumulate tech, auto stocks like maruti, pharma & biotech & infra stocks for a likely diwali bonanza. Traders also may add more longs in case nifty crosses 5077 levels and stays above it.

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

 

[pranayk]

markets for 15 oct

as expected, nifty opened gap up and crossed the critical level of 5077 in the first minute it self and remained above it for the rest of the day making an intraday trading high of 5127. Although nifty did not skip 60 to 70 points to straight move above 5150 levels on wednesday, it is just a matter of time when traders will find nifty trading above 5151 magic levels to eye the next resistance around 5166 levels, most probably this may happen on thursday it self making it "three white soldiers" candle stick pattern. Now the low around 4934 becomes a solid support for swing traders to continue to remain long towards 5252 nifty levels.

If one has a closer look at the daily eod chart above, one will notice the slow stochastic without entering the lower zone has turned up to cross the mid point. This is a mega bullish signal for much higher levels. Similarly the "cup & handle" formation as marked in the chart above should easily take nifty towards 5500 levels with minor corrections in between. Traders and investors must make full use of every intraday or daily minor corrections to add to their longs for good gains .

For intraday trading on thursday nse index has strong support around 5111 levels below which 5092 is the next support. Long holders may remain long and add more longs on every intraday decline with a safe quit below 5070 levels. On the higher side 5145 followed by 5166 are resistance levels. Above 5166 to 5170 levels nifty may straight eye towards diwali card table of 5200.poor inflation numbers to be out around mid day may generate a blip like the iip number blip on monday to which long traders should take full advantage of.

Although dow is trying its best to touch the magic 10000 levels, if one knows dow well for years, then one should not be surprised to see a sharp sell off in dow on touching this magic level of 10k. This sharp sell off may trigger a sell off in asian markets on thursday morning that may induce a weak opening in indian markets which should be made full use of to buy, as indian markets have long way to go & nifty most likely will test 5200 levels shortly.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 15 oct 09

dow crossed the magic level of 10000 and closed at 10015.in the daily eod charts of dow the macd cross over confirms further big up move in dow in coming days towards the target of 12000 possibly by early 2010. The weekly chart of dow also looks extremely strong now with weekly stochastic turning up before entering the lower zone. So after an expected milder correction one can expect much higher levels for dow that may carry the entire world markets with it. S&p500 closed at 1092 which by year end should easily test 1200 mark.

Most of the european markets closed highly bullish above 2% gain with uk ftse closing up by 2%. Brazil the emerging market like india continued with its mega bull run with another 2.4% rise. Asian markets as usual not responding to the mega bullish world markets have opened mildly +ve but will catch up soon with strong upward momentum as the day progresses.

For indian markets expect another big gap up opening high above the 5150 nifty levels. A normal 2% rise from wednesdays close of 5115 should easily take nifty above the 5200 mark today itself. Any intraday correction around the time of announcement of inflation numbers or during any flatness of markets should be made full use of to buy auto, pharma, tech & bank, cement, infra & oil & gas exploration stocks for further gains. The break out of the congestion zone around 4700 should easily take nifty towards the magic 5555 levels in coming days. Traders should go long whenever possible and hedge by writing higher calls on market rise.indian markets which have been under performing other emerging world markets like brazil, will most likely catch up this week it self.

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

 

[pranayk]

markets for 16 oct

nifty opened gap up at the magic level of 5151 and never stayed above it for even a second and continued to drift lower on profit booking as every trader was sure that dow having scaled to 10000 levels has to correct sharply down for a day or two from thursday night that may induce a negative sentiment in asian markets on friday morning. Nifty kept on falling gradually till it reached the earlier critical level of 5077 from where it showed a sharp bounce again towards 5120 levels to close flat around 5109.

A flat after a big up move is another welcome sign for further up moves. The new wave that has started from 4934 levels has all the potential in it to cross 5200 levels , so traders & investors must make full use of the operator induced intraday falls to buy only. If one has a look at the intraday hourly chart above, one will notice that the thursdays low around 5077 which was the earlier resistance, is a strong support now where solid buying may be expected. On the higher side a cross over of 5121 followed by 5136 may see another good up move towards thursdays highs of 5151 followed by 5166.

In the hourly chart above, slow stochastic has started to turn up before entering the lower zone. So in case there is a dow induced initial fall, traders may buy as the stochastic during the day has to come into the upper zone. Similarly in the daily eod chart, stochastic after bouncing before the lower zone and crossing the mid line has started to look upwards into the higher zone that may also take nifty higher up. So any intraday decline should be bought into for higher targets of 5166 by keeping quit point around nse index level of 5070.

 

[phukkad]

Hi Pranay...

On the EOD chart, the market seems to have formed a Bearish Spinning Top...So one should expect the market to close in the red tomorrow...right? But then could the bulls feel pumped about the Diwali weekend and push to scale 5200 tomorrow itself?

Just some thoughts...