Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

Sorry for the delay........Internet problem......


MORNING UPDATE AT 8 AM 16 OCT 09

DOW CONTINUED WITH ITS BULL RUN WITH CLOSING MINUTES SPURT AT THE BACK OF BETTER THAN EXPECTED RESULTS TO CLOSE AT THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE DAY AT 10062 A RISE OF 47 POINTS. EUROPEAN MARKETS WHICH CLOSED WHEN DOW WAS TRADING NEGATIVE AROUND 50 POINTS, MOST OF THEM CLOSED IN THE RED WITH UK FTSE CLOSING DOWN BY .6%. BRAZIL CONTINUED WITH ITS MEGA BULLISH UP MOVE WITH A RISE OF ANOTHER .8%. ASIAN MARKETS NOT SURE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO DOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE OPENED MIXED AND MAY REMAIN MIXED FOR THE DAY. TRADERS SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY AMOUNT OF BULLISHNESS FROM OTHER ASIAN MARKETS & THESE MAY NOT BOOST THE SENTIMENTS OF TRADERS IN INDIAN MARKETS. LIKE INDIAN MARKETS YESTERDAY, TODAY OTHER ASIAN MARKETS MAY CLOSE FLAT OR MILD. OPERATOR INFECTED SGX NIFTY WHICH IS TRADING AROUND 5140 WITH VERY LOW VOLUME, MAY FALL AROUND THE TIME OF INDIAN OPENING TO INDUCE A NEGATIVE OR FLATTISH BIAS.

ON THURSDAY, IN SPITE OF POSITIVE US & ASIAN MARKETS, INDIAN MARKETS HAD CLOSED MILDLY IN THE NEGATIVE & FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE A FLAT DAY PRESERVING ALL ITS ENERGIES FOR A BLAST OFF UP MOVE DURING THE MUHURAT TRADING ON DIWALI EVENING ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY SEE A RANGE BOUND DAY WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THURSDAY. WITH BETTER THAN EXPECTED RESULTS BY MOST OF THE COMPANIES, ONE CAN SAFELY ASSUME OCTOBER MONTH TO BE ANOTHER BRIGHT MONTH LIKE SEPTEMBER. WITH CRUDE PRICE RISING DAY BY DAY, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF CRUDE TESTING $100 BY YEAR END. INVESTORS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE STOCKS OF OIL & GAS EXPLORATION LIKE CAIRN, RELIANCE & ONGC ON EVERY DECLINE FOR GOOD GAINS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON FRIDAY, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF NIFTY RETESTING THURSDAYS OPENING GAP HIGHS OF 5151 THAT MAY PUSH NIFTY TO TEST THE MAGIC LEVEL OF 5166 TO CLEAR THE PATH FOR THE DIWALI EVENING LEVEL OF 5200 ON SATURDAY. KEEPING A QUIT POINT AROUND NSE INDEX LEVEL OF 5070, TRADERS MAY TRADE LONG IN CASE NSE INDEX FALLS BELOW 5100 & DECLINES TOWARDS THURSDAYS LOWER LEVELS OF 5080.

 

[GuluGulu]

Pranayk

So Diwali will Sparkle!!!

Happy Diwali to you and all

GG

 

[aid]

:clap::clap: *** HAPPY DEWALI TO YOU ALL *** :clap::clap:

 

[aid]

Hi Pranay .....
May be u r busy celebrating the Dewali.... still missing ur opinion on Muhurat Trading today.

----aid

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

 

[manzzu]

Wishing Pranay and All my fellow thread members a very HAPPY DIWALI!!

 

[pranayk]

weekly markets analysis for week ending 23 october 09


last week was an eventful week with dow crossing the magic 10000 levels but as was during all earlier cases of dow crossing 10000 levels since 1999, it was followed by corrections and dow closed below 10000 levels at the week end. One should not be surprised to see a correction in dow for some days that may pull down other markets during the week. Indian markets which had performed very poorly earlier & had closed in the red during the earlier week ending 9th october, made up the losses and performed better during the week to close decisively above 17000 and 5100 levels for sensex and nifty even though it was a truncated week which technically is a bullish signal.
With the result season in full swing, the markets during the week will be highly dependant on results as well as international cues. The trading pattern during the week may be flat within the confines of 5168 on the higher side and 5077 to 5040 on the lower side. There is every possibility of a pause to the upward momentum to be mostly caused by correction in dow during the early part of the week

 

[pranayk]

weekly technicals for week ending 23 october 09

monthly charts continue to generate bullish signals. The perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above 20 month sma during the month is occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
The weekly indicators have become stronger after a nearly 4% rise in the indices.in the weekly charts the best weekly long term japanese indicator the "ichimoku" continues to generate strong bullish signals with all the three the price, the tencan & the kijun remaining one above the other and all these three remaining above the cloud area. Weekly relative momentum index above 79 looking further up indicates further up move during the week. Trend following indicators like weekly rsi around 69 and both weekly stochastic and w%r are safe in the upper zone and give no signs of over sold levels.

As was mentioned during previous weeks, in addition to the weekly indicators above, there are 3 distinct indications that depict strong bullish signal in the weekly charts. Firstly, this weeks weekly closing of nifty at 5140 with its 3 previous weeks closing above 4900 so all 4 weeks had decisively closed above 4693 which was the high of the perfect doji which was formed for the week ended 12 june 09.this closure of nifty high above the doji was also accompanied by decisive breach of the resistance line which is a perfect bullish trade setup "hcd" & is a mega bullish signal to go long on every small decline. This trade set up can only be nullified by a fall in index to close below the resistance line as well as below the low of that doji at 4365 which can only happen under catastrophic circumstances. Secondly, 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Thirdly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels.

These many bullish indications mentioned above are enough for the bulls to rejoice about without even thinking about the much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252.well, bulls may think of it only after nifty falls to test the neck line around the 4780 levels to bounce back in lightening speed to shoot past the all time highs.

In the daily eod charts,the indices closed above the closing support line coming from closing levels of 13 july or even from 9th march. A close below 5108 or more importantly below 5077 can weaken nifty temporarily as per daily charts. In the daily ichimoku, price has breached tencan upwards and has moved above it again during the week, since price & tencan and also chikou are above kujin & all these 4 are high above the cloud zone indicate that the indices will continue to move up during the week with a day or two of flat to mild corrections around early part of the week. Other daily indicators like stochastic has entered the upper zone & till such time it drupes down from upper zone, indices may move up. Both macd & rsi are looking up.

So at the worst a mild correction induced by external world markets may be expected during the week so that external players may enter indian markets at a slightly lower level of around 5000 nifty levels.

 

[pranayk]

elliott wave count for week ending 23 october 09


it was assumed that the fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub wave of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.

The 3rd sub wave of the 3rd wave which is the longest sub wave will similarly have 5 legs with 3 up & 2 down waves. As of now we are still in the 1st sub sub leg & within this in the 4th sub sub sub leg of the 1st sub sub leg of 3rd sub wave of 3rd wave. These are marked in the daily eod chart above. Most likely the 4th sub sub sub leg has ended on friday and possibly the 5th up sub sub sub leg towards 5200 levels will start from this week.

 

[pranayk]

fibonacci levels for nifty


17711 is a critical fibonacci number that sensex has to trade above to move up. Similarly 5168 is an important fibonacci derivative which is the sum of important fibonacci numbers of 4181 & 987. So nifty has to decisively cross and trade above 5168 to move into the 5250 + zone.