Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

markets for 23 oct

by now everyone must have realized the way dow operators behave to influence entire world markets. Well, every intraday trader in india can not become an operator, but certainly can act like an operators to ruthlessly short the index future on every rise. As long as nse index remains below 5066, intraday traders must use all the money power at their disposal to be bold enough to ruthlessly short nifty futures on every intraday rise for good gains. Well most of the intraday traders had enough of long play for so many months & now time has come for short intraday play for great gains. However long & medium term investors must use this as a god sent opportunity to quietly accumulate on every fall of 50 point in nse index, as long term bull run is is very much on, and will remain intact.

If one has a look at the chart above, initially nifty had breached the make or break support at 5077 levels. Having made a high of 5181,the breach of neck line at 5077 brought down nifty to the logical level of 4970.this is not enough for dow operators. Be very sure to see next important support around 4949 will be breached to create havoc amongst weaker hands. This is the final decisive point for the bulls to act or wait till 4900 levels where the bulls may find it too late.

For intraday trading on friday, incase dow operators continue to play their dirty game by bringing down dow over night to adversely influence asian markets on friday morning, then one can ruthlessly continue to short the market and hold shorts till day end or till critical resistance around 5066 is decisively breached upwards. In case 5066 is decisively breached, then there is every possibility of nifty rising to test next critical resistance at 5122 which is most unlikely to be retested in october. In september 09, nse index had a monthly closing around 5080 on 30 sept. So operators will use all their efforts to see that october closing is below the september closing of 5080

 

[spiritunit]

Hey Pranayk, I just tried with daily chart, I am not sure whether these trendlines I inserted are correct... according to this chart, tomorrow major support is on 4950, closing below this level can go to around 4850.. also the 20 day ema is also broken today, closing above 5060 tomorrow can move upto 5200, am I right?

 

[pranayk]

[morning update at 8 am 23 oct 09

as expected, dow operators played their favorite confusing game of one day fall & next day rally, and this time dow was up by 131 points to close at 10080 on thursday night, ready to fall again on friday to trap asian markets on monday morning. Although the charts of dow looks extremely bullish, till such time it does not move up to close above the magic figure of 10120, it will continue to play its confusing game. European markets which had closed when dow was trading below 10000 level closed in the red by nearly 1% to 1.5% with uk ftse closing down by .9%.brazil regained its bullish momentum with another 1% rise. Asian markets scared of the action by dow operators, have opened mildly on the +ve and may continue to trade mild under the full control of dow operators ruling these markets.

For indian markets, after 4 days of consecutive falls starting from diwali muhurat trading, one may expect dead cat bounce. Dows big deceptive rise may also influence a +ve opening in indian markets. But traders must keep in mind that as long as nse index does not decisively trade above 5066 levels, there is every possibility of operators play to pull down the markets again & again. However a decisive cross over to trade above 5060 to 5066 levels by nifty can generate massive short covering by the bears that can easily take nifty above 5100 levels to meet another formidable resistance around 5122 level. Only a cross over of 5122 can bring strength in the bulls to take the markets further up next week.

Last friday nifty had closed at 5142 & there is no way nifty can move up to reach that level on this friday. The best that one can expect is a face saving close around the critical level of 5060.for intraday trading on friday, expect a gap up opening. An initial cross over of 5020 can sharply take nifty towards the next resistance around 5060 levels. With moon having moved out of its lowest sign scorpio that may mitigate the adverse planetary impact as explained above, one can take mild risk of reducing shorts and play long in case nifty crosses and sustains above 5020 and add more longs in case nifty decisively crosses 5066. However traders must keep in mind that as long as nifty remains below the critical level 5060 to 5066, it will remain under the full control of operators

 

[vaibhavjain]

Dear Pranayakji,
I love your thread, not bcos of simply accuracy of your predictions, but by the professionalism in the way they are presented and the logic behind them.

Today, you were spot on, with heavy weight reliance falling sharply caused Nifty not to rise in the way all other markets rose.
Now, Dow has fallen by almost 100 points as I write this, which is worrying me.

I am still going abide your earlier posts where bullishness of the market cannot be ignored as long as 4900 and then finally 4780 is protected.
In fact, I took a positional trade after an initial triangle breakout, long term rounding bottom (or C&H), and then finally a double bottom formed around 4900 level with intermediary top at 5100 which broke, and should have given the target of 5300.

And now specially when an 'INVERTED HAMMER' has been formed today, which should logically hold down the current fall in index, and a bullish candle on Monday (which has to overcome Dow induced fall) will confirm the start of uptrend again.
So, what is your view about those levels, shall I still let my position rolling in, or close down in panic if the levels around 4900 get in danger?
Your view will be highly appreciated by me.

Thanks
Vaibhav

 

[pranayk]

Chart analysis

 

[pranayk]

weekly markets analysis for week ending 30 october 09

after having gone up by nearly 4% for the previous week ending 17th october, indices took a well deserved pause during last week ending 23rd oct by sliding down by nearly 3%. This slide of nearly 3% made indian markets the worst performers during the week compared to other world markets most of which closed flat on a week on week closing basis. Dow in spite of a well orchestrated 109 point fall on friday night still closed only .2% down on a weekly closing basis. Brazil had a 1.7% fall. European markets had bullish weekly closing with uk ftse up by 1%. Australia had a mild .3% fall. In asia too, all the markets performed better than india. Japan was down .2%, korea flat, singapore .3% down, taiwan .8% down. Hong kong was up by 3% & china was up by 4.4%.
So, indian markets performed the worst, in spite of better than expected results by most companies, enhanced political strength after the election results, delayed but good monsoons, bonus announcements by many index heavies, clearly points towards a free hand given to the external operators operating in the name of hedge funds. Even the precision timing of the hardys oil announcement by the news channel is perhaps nothing other than a hard core operators game plan to bring down index heavy reliance when nifty was about to breach the critical resistance of 5055 that could have easily taken up nifty high above 5100 on friday.

During the week, dow operators too played their deceptive role in highly influencing indian & asian markets. If one randomly picks up 10 positive days in asian markets, one will be surprised to notice that 8 to 9 out of these 10 +ve days in asian markets were immediately followed by big falls in dow the same night and more alarming is that all these days of +ve asian markets were influenced by +ve dow futures. Similarly big down or flat days in asian markets influenced by negative dow futures are immediately followed by big up days in dow. This clearly depicts that most of the asian markets are manipulated by dow operators through their operators in the name of fiis & hedge funds which are spread like virus across the world markets. Interestingly these operators are unable to penetrate chinese markets who have their own strange system of index management & every time dow operators tried to penetrate chinese markets they were kicked out to take shelter in sgx. Many of the recent exposure of big operator scams or that of madoff scandal or the recent insider scam of rajaratnam related to galleon hedge funds group are not tips of the icebergs but are just a few drops in the ocean of operators.

Added to the operators game plan, planets too added their quota of misery for the indian markets with 5 major planets sun, moon, jupiter, mars & venus forming a nexus by occupying their respective weakest signs of libra, scorpio, capricorn, cancer & virgo. Thanks god, most of these planets other than mars were benefic planets and had their debilitation cancelled. With moon moving out of the debilitation nexus to join the beneficial jupiter on monday will remove most of the venom out of the evil planetary set up during the coming week.

Although , in daily eod charts nifty has gone below the daily support line coming from march 09, in the weekly charts , it has held on to the weekly support line and as long as nifty trades above 4944 during the coming week, it will stay above the important weekly support line. Another interesting important feature to be noted is, since last 5 weeks from week ending 25 september, nifty is having alternate weeks of rise & fall. Before this set of 5 weeks of alternate rise & fall,there were 2 weeks of consecutive rise & before these 2 weeks of rise there was another set of 5 weeks of alternate rise & fall. This set of sluggish 5 2 5 weekly combination of alternate rise & fall in weekly charts since 31 july 09 although is a mega bullish set up, one has to just wait & see how it fans out next week with expiry falling within it and more importantly when uncontrolled external operators are in full force.

Overall, one should expect a +ve week after the initial hitch. Under normal circumstances one should not expect 4944 being decisively breached. Even if weekly support line at 4944 is breached for a few seconds, 14th october gap between 4904 and 4900 should be a strong support. In case nifty manages to move up to trade above 5055, then all shorters may like to cover their shorts to quickly & go long. Till such time nifty remains below 5055 to 5066, intraday traders may short nifty futures on every intraday rise with strict stop loss around 5066. However should 4900 gets decisively breached then one can resume ruthless shorting again and add more shorts to the kitty.

 

[pranayk]

weekly technicals for week ending 30 october 09

technically, the monthly charts continue to present a long term mega bullish trend. The long term support line from the on set of the present bull run since march 09 still stands like a rock solid support but may get slightly punctured during november, as this steeply upward moving monthly support line will run around 5200 levels as the low for november 09. In that case 3 months support line around 5000 levels may be the low for nov 09.most of the technical indicators still generate strong bullish signals so there is no change to our monthly analysis which is same as was given last week as under:--
the perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above 20 month sma during the month is occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
In the weekly charts, major weekly support line joining the lows of 13th march 09,17th july 09 is still intact ans has not yet been breached and will run through 5025 as the low for next week which most likely may be punctured to find next support around 3 week support line around 4988 during coming week. A breach of this 2nd weekly support line around 4988 may bring down nifty to take support around 5 week support line around 4944 below which 5 week low of 4904 is the only support where bulls have to fight their last battle for survival.
As regards weekly indicators, the best weekly long term japanese indicator the "ichimoku" continues to generate strong bullish signals with all the three the price, the tencan & the kijun remaining one above the other and all these three remaining above the cloud area. Weekly relative momentum index above 80 looking further up indicates further up move during the week. Earlier this level of rmi was reached during august 07 when nse index was at 5700+ levels. Weekly relative volatility index between 40 to 45 since last 5 weeks does not project any sign of weakness. Trend following indicators like weekly rsi around 64 drooping down is a sign of weakness but till such time it does not fall below 62 and more importantly below 55, it can always turn up as per upward movement of index. Weekly stochastic which was safe in the upper zone last week, has started to drupe down out of the upper zone and unless nifty moves higher to close above 5100 in the coming week this stochastic indicator will be a sign of further weakness.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Thirdly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.

In the daily eod charts, due to 5 consecutive days of falls from diwalis muhurat trading till fridays face saving flat, the indices have breached & closed below the daily closing support line coming from closing levels of 9th march & 13 july similar to the breach as had happened on 17th & 19th august as well as on 2nd & 3rd sept & 9th october but indices kept on moving up after the breach. However this time nifty has for the first time closed below the daily intraday support line that may make the bulls to bite their nails. In the daily ichimoku, price has breached tencan downwards and has managed to just stay above kijun. Again during the week, since price, tencan and also chikou are above kujin & all these 4 are high above the cloud zone indicate that the indices will continue to move up during the week after a pause as long as tenkan remains above the kijun. Other daily indicators like stochastic has fallen towards the lower zone and is likely to show oversold signals shortly. Other trend following indicators like daily macd & more so rsi are showing signs of weakness after 5 consecutive days of falls.

So over all, monthly and weekly indicators point towards resumption of bull run where as daily indicators point towards further fall or for another pause for a day or two more. Most likely from mid week or from tuesday one can expect a sharp upward bounce if there are no nasty surprises from result front or rbi governor during the week.

 

[pranayk]

elliott wave count for week ending 30 october 09

we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub wave of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.

The 3rd sub leg of 3rd wave is on and having completed the 1st sub sub up wave till 28th ug high of 4744, 2nd sub sub down leg till 2nd sept low of 4577, the 1st sub sub sub leg of the 3rd up sub sub leg got completed around 1st oct high of 5111 and presently we are perhaps in a bigger 3,3 5 flat with lows around 4905 and highs around 5181. The last leg of the flat is presently on has either been completed on friday or may be completed shortly with lows around 4982 or 4944 or 4904 levels. On completion of this flat a sharp up move towards 5555 levels may be seen.

 

[pranayk]

fibonacci levels for nifty

from the recent high of 5181, nifty has made a low of 4968 on thursday 22nd october. In case nifty does not fall further and starts moving up then various fibonacci resistances that may be encountered are 38.2% around 5050 from where nifty fell on friday, 50% around 5075 and 61.8% around 5100 levels. However if nifty breaches the low of 4904 which looks most unlikely, then next fibonacci calculation will be considered from the 19th aug low of 4353 till 20 october high of 5182 and immediate fibonacci supports would be 38.2% around 4866 levels.

 

[pranayk]

weekly trading range for week ending 30 october 09


the weekly trading range is most likely to be confined within the small range of 5060 on the higher side and 4949 on the lower side with a flat to downside bias around 5000 levels. A decisive breach of 4949 to 4944 on the lower side can slide nifty down towards the make or break support around 4900 levels followed by important fibonacci support at 4866 level. A decisive breach of 5060 on the higher side can see a sharp spurt towards 5151 or even towards last weeks high of 5181 which looks highly unlikely in october.