Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
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morning update at 8 am 11 nov 09
tuesday was perhaps a flat day for entire world markets so also going to be wednesday. But a flat formation generally takes the markets in the same direction that was before the flat formation. So even though dow closed at 20 points in the green and it was the 6th consecutive day of rise for dow, one can still hope for a rise in dow in coming days as per its charts. Asian markets too have opened flat & may remain flat to close mildly in the red. Chinese markets having gone up for so many days against all other markets falling, is likely to correct.
For indian markets one can at the best expect retest of tuesdays lows of 4860 and highs of 4944.however for intraday purpose in case of initial rise of nifty, one can boldly short nifty future, write 5000 calls & buy puts around 4920 to 4925 index levels with must quit point above 61.8% fibonacci level of 4936. In case nse index slides like tuesday & falls below 4860 then also one can short with tight quit point just above its earlier intraday high and confidently add more shorts in case nifty falls below 4850 for possible targets of sub 4800 levels. On the higher side initial cross over of 4907 can take nifty towards critical level of 4925 a decisive cross over of which can only take nifty towards tuesdays highs or above it.
tuesday was perhaps a flat day for entire world markets so also going to be wednesday. But a flat formation generally takes the markets in the same direction that was before the flat formation. So even though dow closed at 20 points in the green and it was the 6th consecutive day of rise for dow, one can still hope for a rise in dow in coming days as per its charts. Asian markets too have opened flat & may remain flat to close mildly in the red. Chinese markets having gone up for so many days against all other markets falling, is likely to correct.
For indian markets one can at the best expect retest of tuesdays lows of 4860 and highs of 4944.however for intraday purpose in case of initial rise of nifty, one can boldly short nifty future, write 5000 calls & buy puts around 4920 to 4925 index levels with must quit point above 61.8% fibonacci level of 4936. In case nse index slides like tuesday & falls below 4860 then also one can short with tight quit point just above its earlier intraday high and confidently add more shorts in case nifty falls below 4850 for possible targets of sub 4800 levels. On the higher side initial cross over of 4907 can take nifty towards critical level of 4925 a decisive cross over of which can only take nifty towards tuesdays highs or above it.
Markets for 12th nov 09
the break out from the critical resistance at 4950 levels has opened the flood gates for another yearly highs to surpass the recent october highs of 5181 in the very short term. However one thing to be kept in mind is that, till such time the final hurdle at 5052 is not breached, one should never think that bull run has resumed.5052 is critical because it is the high of wave 2 of the down wave that started from the high of 5181. Once 5052 is crossed, then the october high of 5181 will be insignificant as november effect will take charge to prove that 9 out of 10 times since 2000 october, november month has always breached the highs of october. (only during the bearish year of 2008, november high was lower than october high). As us markets have already crossed recent highs to make new highs this week, one should not be surprised to find indian markets making new yearly highs early next week.
For intraday trading on thursday, one should expect the bull run to continue after an initial pause but whether nifty will be able to cross 5052 is to be seen which may perhaps come on friday after a pause. For intraday trading on thursday, nifty finds support around 4987 followed by 4973 and then around 4955 to 4944 from where on bulls as usual will come pouncing on to regain the initiative from the bears. On the higher side 5052 remains to be the last hurdle for the bulls which they have to cross in a day or two or else another fall can be expected.
the break out from the critical resistance at 4950 levels has opened the flood gates for another yearly highs to surpass the recent october highs of 5181 in the very short term. However one thing to be kept in mind is that, till such time the final hurdle at 5052 is not breached, one should never think that bull run has resumed.5052 is critical because it is the high of wave 2 of the down wave that started from the high of 5181. Once 5052 is crossed, then the october high of 5181 will be insignificant as november effect will take charge to prove that 9 out of 10 times since 2000 october, november month has always breached the highs of october. (only during the bearish year of 2008, november high was lower than october high). As us markets have already crossed recent highs to make new highs this week, one should not be surprised to find indian markets making new yearly highs early next week.
For intraday trading on thursday, one should expect the bull run to continue after an initial pause but whether nifty will be able to cross 5052 is to be seen which may perhaps come on friday after a pause. For intraday trading on thursday, nifty finds support around 4987 followed by 4973 and then around 4955 to 4944 from where on bulls as usual will come pouncing on to regain the initiative from the bears. On the higher side 5052 remains to be the last hurdle for the bulls which they have to cross in a day or two or else another fall can be expected.
morning update at 8 am 12 nov 09
dow continued with its 7th day of consecutive rise to make new yearly highs by closing 44 points in the green. S&p500 also breached 1100 mark and closed at 1098.european markets were up around 1% with uk ftse closing up by .7%. Brazil after so many days of rise closed flat at .2%+. Asian markets have opened in the green & may remain +ve for the day.
For indian markets after such a big rise above the critical level of 4950 levels, one can expect a slower momentum or a pause to be followed by another sharp up move towards new yearly highs. In case nifty is able to cross 5052 which although looks highly unlikely on thursday, if it is crossed then one can confidently add more longs for another new yearly high shortly.
dow continued with its 7th day of consecutive rise to make new yearly highs by closing 44 points in the green. S&p500 also breached 1100 mark and closed at 1098.european markets were up around 1% with uk ftse closing up by .7%. Brazil after so many days of rise closed flat at .2%+. Asian markets have opened in the green & may remain +ve for the day.
For indian markets after such a big rise above the critical level of 4950 levels, one can expect a slower momentum or a pause to be followed by another sharp up move towards new yearly highs. In case nifty is able to cross 5052 which although looks highly unlikely on thursday, if it is crossed then one can confidently add more longs for another new yearly high shortly.
markets for 13th nov 09
the pause on thursday was very much on expected lines, as asian markets also paused hoping that us markets after 7th consecutive day of rise till wednesday, will surely correct on thursday night. Unexpected iip numbers had an euphoric rise towards 5000 levels which was followed by continuous profit booking to finally close above the critical level of 4950 at 4952 after making a threatening low of 4925 from where bears were chased out by the bulls towards end of the day to rise from a low of 4925 to a high of 4969 during the closing minutes.
If one has a look at the intraday hourly chart above, one will clearly notice that from the low of 4540, the fresh up has started .the first set of 5 waves were completed at 4944 on 10th nov. After a correction as 2nd wave to 4860 on 11 th nov, the next up wave has started. New 1st wave was completed at the high of 5016 and on thursday 12 nov the 2nd wave correction brought it down near to fibonacci 61.8% till 4925 and perhaps the 3rd up wave has started from the low of 4925 and may go towards critical level of 5052 or higher levels, or under the worst of circumstances, it could come down till 4860 to form a bigger flat for a sharp up move from there next week.
For intraday trading on friday, nifty finds initial support around thursdays lows of 4925 a breach of which may take it down till 4883 or even 4860 that can see another sharp bounce towards 5000 levels again. On the higher side, there is every possibility of retesting 5000 levels and a breach of 5015 to 5020 can take nifty up towards the critical resistance at 5052.
Last week nifty closed at 4796 after making a weekly high of 4836.during this week, nifty has managed to trade above the highs of last week. So one should not be surprised to see nifty being brought down to close below the highs of last week at 4837 to thwart an outright bullish out look for coming days. As per daily eod charts, markets look extremely bullish for a new high above the recent high of 5181, that may come later next week
the pause on thursday was very much on expected lines, as asian markets also paused hoping that us markets after 7th consecutive day of rise till wednesday, will surely correct on thursday night. Unexpected iip numbers had an euphoric rise towards 5000 levels which was followed by continuous profit booking to finally close above the critical level of 4950 at 4952 after making a threatening low of 4925 from where bears were chased out by the bulls towards end of the day to rise from a low of 4925 to a high of 4969 during the closing minutes.
If one has a look at the intraday hourly chart above, one will clearly notice that from the low of 4540, the fresh up has started .the first set of 5 waves were completed at 4944 on 10th nov. After a correction as 2nd wave to 4860 on 11 th nov, the next up wave has started. New 1st wave was completed at the high of 5016 and on thursday 12 nov the 2nd wave correction brought it down near to fibonacci 61.8% till 4925 and perhaps the 3rd up wave has started from the low of 4925 and may go towards critical level of 5052 or higher levels, or under the worst of circumstances, it could come down till 4860 to form a bigger flat for a sharp up move from there next week.
For intraday trading on friday, nifty finds initial support around thursdays lows of 4925 a breach of which may take it down till 4883 or even 4860 that can see another sharp bounce towards 5000 levels again. On the higher side, there is every possibility of retesting 5000 levels and a breach of 5015 to 5020 can take nifty up towards the critical resistance at 5052.
Last week nifty closed at 4796 after making a weekly high of 4836.during this week, nifty has managed to trade above the highs of last week. So one should not be surprised to see nifty being brought down to close below the highs of last week at 4837 to thwart an outright bullish out look for coming days. As per daily eod charts, markets look extremely bullish for a new high above the recent high of 5181, that may come later next week
morning update at 8 am 13 nov 09
as expected dow corrected by .9% after 7 consecutive days of rise. Brazil too after so many days of rise lost 3%. European markets which had closed early when us markets were trading mildly negative, closed generally flat with uk ftse mildly +ve by .2%. Asian markets as usual after the fall in us markets have opened -ve and may continue to remain -ve for the day.
For indian markets one can easily expect a fall initially towards the lows made during last hour of thursday. On a weak on weak closing basis , nifty is much higher then the high of last week which was 4837. So even if nifty comes down to breach thursdays lows of 4925 to fall below 4900, it should not perturb bulls. With week end considerations, one should not expect nifty to rise above 5000 on friday & there are more chances of retesting 4900 than 5000 on friday.
as expected dow corrected by .9% after 7 consecutive days of rise. Brazil too after so many days of rise lost 3%. European markets which had closed early when us markets were trading mildly negative, closed generally flat with uk ftse mildly +ve by .2%. Asian markets as usual after the fall in us markets have opened -ve and may continue to remain -ve for the day.
For indian markets one can easily expect a fall initially towards the lows made during last hour of thursday. On a weak on weak closing basis , nifty is much higher then the high of last week which was 4837. So even if nifty comes down to breach thursdays lows of 4925 to fall below 4900, it should not perturb bulls. With week end considerations, one should not expect nifty to rise above 5000 on friday & there are more chances of retesting 4900 than 5000 on friday.
weekly markets analysis for week ending 20 nov 09
it was another week of bullish momentum & the markets continued from where they had left last week giving a gain of more than 4% on a week on week closing basis. Actually, bullish momentum has returned to the entire world markets led by dow which decisively breached october 09 highs of 10157 to make a new high of 10357 to finally close on friday at 10270 high above the october highs. Most of the european markets this week also breached october highs with uk ftse making a high of 5305 above the october high of 5299.in asia too, this week hong kong, singapore and chinese markets have breached the highs of october. Interestingly for indian markets the highs of sensex and nifty for october 09 are 17457 & 5181 and this week they could reach up to the level of 16909 & 5018. So, it is just a matter of few days when one will see both sensex and nifty breach the highs of october to prove the history that 9 ot of 10 times since october 2000 (except for the mega bearish year of 2008) nifty in both months of november & december has always breached the highs of october.
The correction that one saw from the highs of 5181 on 2oth october till 3rd nov lows of 4540, was for the entire up move from the 19th aug lows of 4353 till 20 oct highs of 5181 & this correction was a big correction of about 77%, more than the usual fibonacci retracement of 61.8% that generated fears in the minds of many market players that perhaps bear phase has resumed. Well, the momentum displayed by the markets during last 2 weeks clearly shows that there are many more up moves in store for the markets and once nifty crosses the critical level of 5052, there will be no looking back and many more new highs will be made by the indices before end of the year. For the coming week, technically the markets look extremely strong, news of reliance discovering oil in cambay basin & with news of disinvestments pouring in day by day, in case there are no nasty surprises from world markets, then there is every possibility of both sensex and nifty crossing the october highs of 17457 & 5181 to make new highs.
it was another week of bullish momentum & the markets continued from where they had left last week giving a gain of more than 4% on a week on week closing basis. Actually, bullish momentum has returned to the entire world markets led by dow which decisively breached october 09 highs of 10157 to make a new high of 10357 to finally close on friday at 10270 high above the october highs. Most of the european markets this week also breached october highs with uk ftse making a high of 5305 above the october high of 5299.in asia too, this week hong kong, singapore and chinese markets have breached the highs of october. Interestingly for indian markets the highs of sensex and nifty for october 09 are 17457 & 5181 and this week they could reach up to the level of 16909 & 5018. So, it is just a matter of few days when one will see both sensex and nifty breach the highs of october to prove the history that 9 ot of 10 times since october 2000 (except for the mega bearish year of 2008) nifty in both months of november & december has always breached the highs of october.
The correction that one saw from the highs of 5181 on 2oth october till 3rd nov lows of 4540, was for the entire up move from the 19th aug lows of 4353 till 20 oct highs of 5181 & this correction was a big correction of about 77%, more than the usual fibonacci retracement of 61.8% that generated fears in the minds of many market players that perhaps bear phase has resumed. Well, the momentum displayed by the markets during last 2 weeks clearly shows that there are many more up moves in store for the markets and once nifty crosses the critical level of 5052, there will be no looking back and many more new highs will be made by the indices before end of the year. For the coming week, technically the markets look extremely strong, news of reliance discovering oil in cambay basin & with news of disinvestments pouring in day by day, in case there are no nasty surprises from world markets, then there is every possibility of both sensex and nifty crossing the october highs of 17457 & 5181 to make new highs.
weekly technical analysis for week ending 20 nov 09
technically, the markets look extremely bullish for further up move. During the month of november, indices have breached the lows of both october and september month also .so, dont be surprised to see indices moving up to breach the highs of both these months by end of the current month. There are no changes to the indications given for the monthly charts last week which are as follows:-
the perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month. Also 13 month ems has breached 21 month ema & is moving up. These ma cross overs are occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
The weekly charts too have started to generate bullish signals during the up move for last two weeks after the 2 weeks of big falls from 5181 till 4540.weekly stochastic without entering the lower zone has started to turn up which a strong signal for big up move. Similarly weekly adx also is generating a strong bullish signal. Amongst all the weekly indicators, weekly ichimoku is showing the strongest signals for resumptions of bull run for new highs. Weekly relative volatility index has shown signs of resumption of up move. Weekly nvi rising non stop indicates heavy hidden buying by informed sources on index heavies that will take the markets to much higher levels.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.
The indicators in daily charts continue to generate bullish signals. During the last week of october and first week of november, both sensex & nifty had breached the 3 important moving averages of 20,50 & 100 dma & had threatened to test 200 dma but solid bounce from 4th nov took the indices above all these 3 moving averages. Similarly 20 dma at 4906 was about to breach 50 dma at same 4906 from the top but that did not happen and now 20 dma is about turn upwards to move up without breaching 50 dma which is a super bullish signal for the short to medium term. Other critical indicators like daily ichimoku, nvi and relative volatility index are all indicating further up move.
In the charts of lower time frames of 1 hour & below, a perfect reverse h&s formation can be noticed with head at 4540 and neck line around 4868. A decisive breach of the neck line around 4850 to 4868 with good volumes on 9th nov that was confirmed on 10th nov after retest of the same neck line, now has the potential to take nifty up by at least 300 points from the neck line at 4868 towards october highs of 5181.however, on any day the cross over of 5020 followed by the breach of the critical level at 5052 can see indices moving up like tracer bullets to shoot past october highs. As long as nifty sustains above the low of the perfect hourly doji of 10th nov at 4860,there should be no looking back for the bulls as of now.
So, keeping in mind all these +ve indications in the charts, unless there are nasty surprises thrown from us & other world markets, there is every possibility of further up move during the week to cross october highs of 17457 & 5181 to make new yearly highs during the coming week. Investors & traders must make full use of these +ve indications to buy & hold on every intraday decline of nifty.
technically, the markets look extremely bullish for further up move. During the month of november, indices have breached the lows of both october and september month also .so, dont be surprised to see indices moving up to breach the highs of both these months by end of the current month. There are no changes to the indications given for the monthly charts last week which are as follows:-
the perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month. Also 13 month ems has breached 21 month ema & is moving up. These ma cross overs are occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
The weekly charts too have started to generate bullish signals during the up move for last two weeks after the 2 weeks of big falls from 5181 till 4540.weekly stochastic without entering the lower zone has started to turn up which a strong signal for big up move. Similarly weekly adx also is generating a strong bullish signal. Amongst all the weekly indicators, weekly ichimoku is showing the strongest signals for resumptions of bull run for new highs. Weekly relative volatility index has shown signs of resumption of up move. Weekly nvi rising non stop indicates heavy hidden buying by informed sources on index heavies that will take the markets to much higher levels.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.
The indicators in daily charts continue to generate bullish signals. During the last week of october and first week of november, both sensex & nifty had breached the 3 important moving averages of 20,50 & 100 dma & had threatened to test 200 dma but solid bounce from 4th nov took the indices above all these 3 moving averages. Similarly 20 dma at 4906 was about to breach 50 dma at same 4906 from the top but that did not happen and now 20 dma is about turn upwards to move up without breaching 50 dma which is a super bullish signal for the short to medium term. Other critical indicators like daily ichimoku, nvi and relative volatility index are all indicating further up move.
In the charts of lower time frames of 1 hour & below, a perfect reverse h&s formation can be noticed with head at 4540 and neck line around 4868. A decisive breach of the neck line around 4850 to 4868 with good volumes on 9th nov that was confirmed on 10th nov after retest of the same neck line, now has the potential to take nifty up by at least 300 points from the neck line at 4868 towards october highs of 5181.however, on any day the cross over of 5020 followed by the breach of the critical level at 5052 can see indices moving up like tracer bullets to shoot past october highs. As long as nifty sustains above the low of the perfect hourly doji of 10th nov at 4860,there should be no looking back for the bulls as of now.
So, keeping in mind all these +ve indications in the charts, unless there are nasty surprises thrown from us & other world markets, there is every possibility of further up move during the week to cross october highs of 17457 & 5181 to make new yearly highs during the coming week. Investors & traders must make full use of these +ve indications to buy & hold on every intraday decline of nifty.
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